Author | Lightnews

Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

decisiondeskhq.bsky.social @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 2d

We're about 2 weeks out from Election Day, so @geoffreyskelley.com has a preview of #NJGov in our newsletter. Mikie Sherrill (D) is favored but Jack Ciattarelli (R) has a path if he can meld his strengths with Trump's 2024 improvement in the Garden State. zurl.co/EkYue

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

decisiondeskhq.bsky.social @decisiondeskhq.bsky.social · 6d

In DDHQ's latest pod, @geoffreyskelley.com & @kkondik.bsky.social talked about Virginia's 2025 races. In the high-profile attorney general's race, incumbent Jason Miyares (R) has directly pitched Spanberger #vagov voters to not back Jay Jones (D) after his texting scandal. zurl.co/wr9oo

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Galen Druke @galendruke.bsky.social · Aug 25

Today on the GD POLITICS pod:

🐀 What if every state gerrymandered to the max?

🗽 New York City mayoral race updates

😠 Voters' mood in 2025

w/ @geoffreyskelley.com

www.gdpolitics.com/p/what-if-ev...

What If Every State Gerrymandered To The Max?

Plus an update on the New York City mayoral race and voters' mood in 2025.

www.gdpolitics.com

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Aug 22

Our long, national nightmare is over. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections is back online. uselectionatlas.org

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

Detailed national results of US Presidential Elections from 1789 through 2012, US Senate and Gubernatorial Elections since 1990. Site includes election data, county maps and state maps, charts. State...

uselectionatlas.org

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jul 30

New TX map has 8 safe D seats. The other five Dem seats all become red-leaning:
-Gonzalez & Cuellar have Trump +10 seats to defend in South Texas
-Johnson in Trump +18 seat, could run vs Veasey (D) in majority-Latino TX-33
-Dem vs Dem primaries possible in new TX-37 & TX-18

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Sam Shirazi @samshirazi.bsky.social · Jul 26

New Federal Fallout pod this morning featuring @geoffreyskelley.com

Geoff previously was with Crystal Ball and 538

He goes over Virginia and New Jersey this year

And looks ahead to redistricting and its potential impact on midterms

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

Episode 22: Geoff Skelley Interview on 2025 and the Midterms

Podcast Episode · Federal Fallout: The 2025 Virginia Elections · 07/26/2025 · 31m

podcasts.apple.com

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 28

Very excited to see which current “no” vote among Senate Rs flips to ensure passage of the BBB on Monday. Highly skeptical we’re gonna see another failure like the Obamacare skinny repeal in 2017.

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The Downballot @the-downballot.com · Jun 24

This piece from @geoffreyskelley.com recounting Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran's come from behind GOP primary runoff victory 11 years ago today sure brings back memories. Cochran appealed to the state's large and heavily Democratic Black electorate to vote in a Republican contest, and it worked.

On This Election Day: June 24

June 24, 2014: Republican Sen. Thad Cochran barely survives a Tea Party challenge from the right to win renomination in a primary runoff

nationalbeargarden.substack.com

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 18

Using AP estimates on what's outstanding, there might be ~20k votes left in Richmond City, more than any other locality. Just how much better — or not — Stoney does among the outstanding votes in the city he leads could prove decisive in the LG primary result. #VAprimary

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 16

Virginia’s primary is on Tuesday. Looking ahead to November, 2025 could mark the 5th straight state election in which the same party swept all three statewide offices — governor, lieutenant governor & attorney general. open.substack.com/pub/national...

Could Virginia see one party sweep all three state offices this November?

Virginia's primary is happening on Tuesday. The same party has won the general election for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general in four straight elections. It could happen again.

open.substack.com

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 11

The casual irrational confidence that you could move to South Carolina in 2025 and mount a strong challenge against Lindsey Graham in the 2026 #SCSen race. Laughable. www.politico.com/news/2025/06...

Former Rep. Joe Walsh is considering a bid against GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham

The former Tea Party congressman has become a registered Democrat.

www.politico.com

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 10

Waiting on #NJGov results and looking for something to read? Check out my look at how the Dem primary ended up so crowded and what that might say about the changing politics of the Garden State. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

New Jersey Democrats have an unusually crowded primary for governor

Six candidates might win at least 10% in the Democratic primary — which would be a first in the Garden State's history

nationalbeargarden.substack.com

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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · Jun 10

Today is primary election day in New Jersey! @geoffreyskelley.com has a good preview: nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 9

Something to watch in New Jersey's primary: 6 Dems might win 10%+ in the gov primary, which would be a 1st in state history. Such a crowded race may result from weakened local party influence & abolishment of the “county line” on election ballots. nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/new-jersey...

New Jersey Democrats have an unusually crowded primary for governor

Six candidates might win at least 10% in the Democratic primary — which would be a first in the Garden State's history

nationalbeargarden.substack.com

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 5

Been playing with my kid, anyone got a tick-tock with the exact order of X/TruthSocial posts/public statements and reactions by Musk and Trump?

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd.bsky.social · Jun 3

This is reasonable. And I thought it for many years. But Jennifer Allen's work on vaccine misinformation changed my mind. Headlines often misinform people because 1) most people don't click through and read stories, 2) misleading headlines don't get misinformation flags from social media companies.

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 2

Dems finally get a Cedric Richmond heir

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Reposted by Geoffrey Skelley

Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · Jun 2

If JD Scholten beats the odds and #IAsen Joni Ernst, it’ll be a windfall for Democrats in the Congressional Baseball Game. He’s spent the last two years pitching in Dutch professional baseball and for the indy team the Sioux City Explorers.

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 1

Her backpedaling after initially opposing Hegseth was to avoid provoking a primary challenge from her right.

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 1

It’s also telling from an incumbent who has never had to run in a bad environment for her party (first elected in red wave 2014 midterm then reelected in more neutral 2020 pres cycle).

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · Jun 1

#IASen is definitely a stretch for Dems in 2026, but Ernst just decided to pour gasoline on the fire she started with her bungled statement at a townhall. That’s a decision that suggests she and/or her staff believe she’s safer than she really is.

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · May 22

The three Dem vacancies made it very slightly easier for the GOP, but the 3 Republican present/ abstentions would have likely gotten the GOP over the line even if Connolly, Grijalva and Turner were all still alive and there. This is too important for Trump.

Amanda Litman @amandalitman.bsky.social · May 22

The gerontocracy has consequences, episode one million and three.

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · May 21

Europa League champs! I will absolutely take it, no matter how ugly it was. #COYS

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · May 12

Most Congressional Republicans have pledged not to raise taxes, but some are considering a tax hike for their own budget deal. 85% have signed Americans for Tax Reform's no-tax pledge, down from 95% after the 2010 Tea Party election.
nationalbeargarden.substack.com/p/in-a-world...

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Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyskelley.com · May 12

My mother grew up in Waynesboro, she’s here visiting her new grandchild and tells me that it was a Holiday Inn that, amazingly, had a little skating rink outside.

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