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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 2h

I think not having BB to deal with on WC is big, as it means both putting more money on the pitch but also using fewer transfers.

FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 21h

I think that will probably be the case, but it will be hard to go into team styles when games are so variable. ‘X team delivers crosses and long throws, but had a man sent off when Y player faced them’, and that sort of thing. More generally, two more games will be 25% more info which is huge.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 1d

My conclusion is that if I were predicting over the medium-term, it would be no surprise to see any of these (bar Senesi) get 5-6 returns in an 8 game stretch. Whereas players like Lacroix and Alderete are on a median of 9.5 suggesting consistent returns of around 1 in 2.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 1d

4) Richards - 5/8 returns, median of 11.5. Also some very big numbers, and should sustain this rate.

5) Andersen - 6/7 returns (Starts only), median of 11 per start. Like Tarko, a few returns in the 10-11 range, suggesting it's likely that there will be a few more near-misses in the future.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 1d

3) Tarko - 7/8 returns, median of 11. Many returns are in the 10-11 range, so I suspect we'll see a few more near-misses than we have so far, perhaps some regression to Virgil-esque levels of returns. (Last year he hit returns of 2 in 3 from a median of 10).

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 1d

1) Senesi - 7/8 returns, median of 14. This feels very highly predictive and suggests that this sort of hit rate may well sustainable.

2) Virgil - 5/8 returns, median of 11. Massive numbers hit in some games, missing out on others. I think, again, this is a sustainable rate of return.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 1d

What's the most useful metric for thinking about Defcon returns? Percentage of returns? Total DCs piled up? minutes per DC? I've had a quick look at the top 5 for minutes per DC, and looked at their Median DC average....

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 2d

Just go with GW9 if the players are fit - who knows what it will happen

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 3d

True, but it means the player pool is pretty small…

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 3d

The expansion of European football plus the five subs rule really does ruin FPL. How many legitimate attacking picks, in xMins terms, are there from the six UCL teams?

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 4d

The bad place totally losing its shit over the non-assist for Semenyo.
1) it’s not an assist according to the new rules as although inadvertant touches count, they don’t if a defender subsequently touches the ball;
2) imagine being that angry about 3 more points for a 90+% EO player.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 6d

Also, it’s fair to say that I’m a very pessimistic fan 😂

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 6d

That’s fair enough! And if he could get you a price rise or two.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 6d

Original plan for King to either Sarr/Paqueta/Minteh and BB8, but the Caicedo flag is worrying me. Should I just roll and wait for another week for BB? That said, in the long term I think all three of the above are good picks

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 6d

As a West Ham who had Diouf from the start I wouldn’t touch him until we see if Nuno can turn it around.

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Reposted by FPL Historian

Anon Opin @anonopin.bsky.social · 6d

Fish and Chip shops that use spray bottles for vinegar should be shut down.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 6d

Cheers - and there is a sense that I will want to move a very cheap striker/mid at some point

FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 6d

I’m weighing up whether to trust Caicedo starts and use mine as well, as planned….

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 6d

I really appreciate this, Jonny!

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 7d

Cheers

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 7d

Would you BB this week with Caicedo and hope he starts, or hold fire?

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 8d

I’m weighing up King to Paqueta and BB’ing this week. Also, I’m going to the West Ham-Brentford game so having a player is always nice.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 8d

Looking forward to this.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 9d

Still having my BB feels like a massive fucking millstone. My feeling is that although GW11 looks better here, use it as early as possible as who knows what injuries will happen? Also, I can't wait to bin one of my strikers for a 4.5 dud.

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FPL Historian @fplhistorian.bsky.social · 10d

But if Kudus doesn’t deliver straight away you might be itching to move him for his tricky run away. So I’d say get Eze or go for someone who you know you’ll be happy to hold for a while…

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