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Ewan Hoyle

@ewanhoyle.bsky.social

320 followers 800 following 640 posts

Lead strategist at Sprint for PR, the progressive campaign for the electoral reform that protects us all from illegitimate right-wing rule. Progressive co-operation can deliver the reform we need in this parliament.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 16h

I joined the Green Party last month.
I did that after asking someone to have a look at some data that I suspected would show them having overtaken the Labour Party.
I think the 100/1 odds on them being the largest party after the next election are generous. ewanhoyle.substack.com/p/green-part...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

ewanhoyle.substack.com

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 41m

They are the only party with a serious position on this issue.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 42m

Wrong!! Educate yourself.
There's a lot of people who think it's ok to leave lucrative drug markets in the hands of violent criminal gangs that recruit children to carry out their work. That is the madness here.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 3h

Some very pessimistic statements about the prospects for the Greens.

There's some polling that suggests they already lead Labour in ranked preferences and favourability. If they can transform that into voting intention, Labour are in deep trouble. open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

open.substack.com

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 8h

Ultimately, there needs to be a new party of the centre-right for people who are talented and who respect the British people and reality. Such a party only becomes of definite benefit to British politics under a ranked electoral system like the Single Transferable Vote.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 16h

Green Party supporters are too clever by half.

Tactical considerations at the ballot box and in polling have built up a Green Trojan Horse in UK politics.

ewanhoyle.substack.com

Reposted by Ewan Hoyle

TheBossRoss @thebossross.bsky.social · 1d

This conversation.

Thank you, #BBCWest / #BBCBristol - it's good to see you can still do it.

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

19% in August 2023, and 16% in May 2024. This is broadly comparable to the first ranking numbers for YouGov's "how would you rank?" in favourability.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

"would you consider voting for?" is still distorted by tactical considerations under FPTP, though.
"Suppose all the of following political parties were equally likely to win your seat at a general election. Which party would you most like to win?" is the Electoral Calculus question that gave Grn...

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Total over 5?:
Green 30%
Reform 26%
Lib Dem 25%
Con 23%
Lab 23%

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Would this have the Green Party leading on a "total like" score (people scoring them over 5)?

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Amen to that.
substack.com/home/post/p-...

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

I've created a graphic for the YouGov poll (the missing 11% were don't knows after all), and the 0-strongly dislike ties were enormously generous to Reform UK. 48% of voters still stubbornly hate their guts.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 1d

Have they actually written up an article on this poll, or is this something you produced from the data tables? How did you get the data tables?

Reposted by Ewan Hoyle

Tom Scott @tom--scott.bsky.social · 2d

Farage's mate Nathan Gill & his Putin-linked handlers were part of a much bigger network – one responsible for subverting and destabilising democracies on two continents.

@carolecadwalla.bsky.social reports for the excellent new @thenerve.news.
www.thenerve.news/p/reform-uk-...

The contact of Reform UK’s Russian puppet Nathan Gill is linked to efforts to destabilise the US and Ukraine. Why, even now, is no one asking questions?

Gill, former leader in Wales of Nigel Farage's party, admits taking bribes to help Putin. And his Russian connection - the Ukrainian politician Oleh Voloshyn - in turn has links to a key figure wante...

www.thenerve.news

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

Ah. Got you 😂

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

Is that a poll of Green voters?! 😯

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

Things that can be solved by a coalition/pact with the Lib Dems potentially.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

very differently, and got Greens with 19% first preferences in 2023. Up 13 points on voting intention. "If all parties had an equal chance of winning, who would you vote for?" isn't just vibes.

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_tac...

Tactical Voting Poll September 2023

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

"Respondents were initially asked for their first and second preference party in the hypothetical situation that all parties would have an equal chance of winning in their area, to try to measure their true party preference before any tactical considerations."

Electoral Calculus word things...

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

Something that really requires some qualitative research given the potential for the tactical votes to suddenly flip to Green in the fight against Reform UK.

Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

It could be that they only targeted 4 seats at the last election, so they are regarded as a wasted vote, and always will be?

Reposted by Ewan Hoyle

Adam Bienkov @adambienkov.bsky.social · 3d

The message from Robert Jenrick has been clear. If you’re a far-right thug threatening migrants, refugees, or Muslims, then your rights to protest are to be protected at all costs. If you’re not then they won’t
www.adambienkov.co.uk/p/the-descen...

The Descent of Robert Jenrick

The Shadow Justice Secretary's transformation from a 'Generic' moderate Conservative to the Great Hope of the far-right should alarm us all

www.adambienkov.co.uk

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Reposted by Ewan Hoyle

Bold Politics with Zack Polanski @boldpolitics.bsky.social · 2d

Solidarity with all trans and intersex people having their existence debated every time a tv host hasn't done their prep and can't think of any more questions

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Ewan Hoyle @ewanhoyle.bsky.social · 2d

As a member of the Scottish Greens, I'd like to have an electoral system that reflects people's preferences rather than misrepresenting them.

It's time for the Single Transferable Vote for elections at all levels.

Reposted by Ewan Hoyle

David Wearing @davidwearing.bsky.social · 2d

Every day he's showing up the class vs "idpol" debate for the facile nonsense that it is. One for all the amateur strategists to consider. As he wins by a massive margin.

Zohran Kwame Mamdani @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social · 3d

UNTIL IT’S DONE, Ep. 4: Sylvia Rivera

In the 1970s, queer New Yorkers had been pushed to the margins of NYC. Our trans neighbors faced immense cruelty. But in Sylvia Rivera, they found a champion.

As we combat Trump’s politics of darkness, her legacy can light the path forward.

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