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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 17h

Thats nearly impossible to do, as the author notes, which I referenced in my orginal post.

This article appeared to be a way into the large topic about missing weather balloon data, using a recent example of a deadly storm that occurred in remote area where those data are important.

Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 17h

“How big of a difference the missing balloon data made, though, may never be known. The best way to determine that would be to run computer models with weather balloon data fed into them and without it, in what is known as a data denial experiment — impossible to do without the data itself.”

Lack of weather data due to Trump’s budget cuts impacted forecast for deadly Alaska storm | CNN

The forecast for the powerful and deadly storm that battered small communities in western Alaska over the weekend was likely made worse by a lack of weather data triggered by the Trump administration’...

www.cnn.com

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 17h

That’s not the purpose of the CNN article. NWS meteorologists themselves say the missing data may have impacted model performance. I don’t think as scientists we should settle for “good enough.” Soundings provide key data, especially in the day or two prior to storms in a remote area like Alaska.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 17h

I agree. The missing data undoubtedly impacted model simulations, though. Those are essential tools for meteorologists.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 17h

The extratropical transition was apparent for days, yes. I also noted this. The article argues the lack of weather balloon data in Alaska degraded the accuracy of model simulations of the storm’s landfall.
bsky.app/profile/edwa...

Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 8d

Energy from Typhoon Halong near Japan may amplify the jet steam (excite the storm track) across the Northern Pacific / western North America this weekend. Scientifically known as tropical cyclone recurvature & extratropical transition.
Maps: @aliciambentley.bsky.social

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 17h

“How big of a difference the missing balloon data made, though, may never be known. The best way to determine that would be to run computer models with weather balloon data fed into them and without it, in what is known as a data denial experiment — impossible to do without the data itself.”

Lack of weather data due to Trump’s budget cuts impacted forecast for deadly Alaska storm | CNN

The forecast for the powerful and deadly storm that battered small communities in western Alaska over the weekend was likely made worse by a lack of weather data triggered by the Trump administration’...

www.cnn.com

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 17h

Recently, an upper-level system moved through the Pacific Northwest, bringing with it an early season winter storm that dumped mountain snow across the Cascades.

This imagery from JPSS satellites compares the Cascades from a week ago to today.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 19h

Saw several videos on Facebook!

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 19h

Anyone in the #Salinas (Monterey County) area seeing a funnel cloud? #CAwx

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 20h

They sure were nice!!

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

Alaina Ross @circle-and-square.bsky.social · 22h

Captured beautiful timelapse shots over the San Francisco Bay this morning: the pocket of unstable air embedded behind the main front of this storm set up the right conditions for some dramatic cloud development! #CAwx

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 20h

Lake Tahoe braces for first snow as winter storm targets Sierra. Here’s what to expect www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...

Lake Tahoe braces for first snow as winter storm targets Sierra. Here’s what to expect

Winter storm warnings and advisories were in effect for the Sierra crest and Lake Tahoe basin through Wednesday morning.

www.sfchronicle.com

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 22h

CHP reporting all lanes of northbound Interstate 5 closed due to flooding in San Fernando Valley #CAwx

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Reposted by Anthony Edwards

cira-csu.bsky.social @cira-csu.bsky.social · 23h

A low-pressure system moves down the West Coast, bringing stormy weather to California.

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

Data 1950-present

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

www.ncei.noaa.gov/stormevents/...

Storm Events Database - Search Results | National Centers for Environmental Information

www.ncei.noaa.gov

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

California tornadoes are rare in October. It’s the third-least common month for tornadoes in the state after June and July. There’s only been one October twister in the state in the past decade, coming on Oct. 8, 2022 in Lake Elsinore. #CAwx

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

Yes

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wat...

Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 622

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center...

www.spc.noaa.gov

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

The National Weather Service has issued a severe thunderstorm WATCH for the Los Angeles area until 6am, including San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura and LA counties for potential damaging wind and a low chance of tornadoes. It’s the first severe thunderstorm watch in the area since 2008. #CAwx

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

And now another Tornado Warning for South central San Luis Obispo County until 1215 AM PDT.
* Locations impacted include... San Luis Obispo... Pismo Beach... Arroyo Grande... Nipomo... Grover Beach... Guadalupe... Oceano... Avila Beach... Diablo Canyon... Shell Beach... and Baywood-Los Osos.
#CAwx

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

The National Weather Service in OXNARD has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... West central San Luis Obispo County in southwestern California...

* Until 1145 PM PDT.

* At 1115 PM PDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Morro Bay, moving northeast at 20 mph.
#CAwx

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

Wow

Reposted by Anthony Edwards

Michael @lordstrange.bsky.social · 1d

Yes it was raining super hard at our house in Oakland. Need evidence of this, 2 feet! bsky.app/profile/mtr....

IEMBot San Francisco @mtr.weather.im · 1d

At 4:36 PM PDT, 3 SW Piedmont [Alameda Co, CA] Law Enforcement reports Flood. Roadway flooding. Approx. 2 feet of water on NB880 connector to WB980. CHP report. #cawx Link

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Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 1d

Not necessarily. The moisture must come from somewhere. Increased evaporative demand (drought) supplies the thirsty atmosphere. Inconclusive research regarding rainfall frequency (probably won’t change much) but when it rains it’ll be harder. Swing between drought/flood becoming more extreme.

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