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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 14h

Here’s some dj lore: I’ve lived in Texas most of my life now, but I was born in Alexandria, VA (and lived in Annandale until moving to TX)

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 1d

off years vs presidential years

turnout will be less overall so eday can take a larger share, it's also probably difficult to staff all the satellite locations for so long

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 1d

yr ago tomorrow, PWC opened satellites for early voting

Fifth big city/county to hit a point of reduced EV access

Will make judging Dem turnout kinda difficult, but at least we have Henrico, Norfolk and Loudoun

Loudoun/Henrico satellites open the 20th, Norfolk the 23rd

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

Incredible

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

Over next two weeks, more and more of the big counties will fall off against 2024 as satellites opened in 2024 but not yet this year

The ones to keep an eye on are Henrico & Norfolk (unchanged EV access) and especially Loudoun, which has an *extra* location starting the 20th

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

updated, still nothing particularly interesting going on

this is kind of the most "dead" period of the 45 day window, after the partisans rush out and before it ramps up towards the end of the window

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

VA2025 Competitive HDs EV precinct breakdowns

docs.google.com

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 2d

Finally got a precinct update from VA this morning, so the spreadsheet will update when I have access to my pc later on

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

From this point comparisons to 2024 on a macro level get less and less useful

Richmond and Chesapeake had been averaging around 80% of 2024 IPEV turnout daily

Yesterday they did about 30% and 25%, and this will just get worse as more 2024 satellites are opened earlier

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 5d

this is by % of 24 total

all highlighted counties have satellites (though varying numbers - Henrico will only have 1 more)

yellow = no change to satellites
orange = reduced access relative to 2024 when satellites open
red = already has reduced access vs 2024

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 6d

Starting tomorrow (tomorrow’s update, today’s votes) some big counties in VA will start falling considerably behind their 2024 numbers

On this day in 2024, Richmond and Chesapeake opened their satellites but they won’t open until the 20th this year

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 6d

Added 35 localities to the sheet, tracking precinct EV turnout

Can click on the names of a HD or city/county to get taken to that tab now 🫠

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 7d

This is what I have set up for ~25 or so localities but I don’t have access to my computer so they’ll probably have to get added to the public spreadsheet tomorrow

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 8d

Texas oomfs:

We have 17(!) constitutional amendments on the ballot this year (and you might have local elections as well)

The voter registration deadline is Monday & early voting starts on the 20th

Can read about the propositions here:

www.texastribune.org/2025/09/22/t...

17 statewide propositions will appear on the November ballot. Here’s what Texas voters need to know.

A majority of the proposed constitutional amendments address tax cuts for homeowners and businesses.

www.texastribune.org

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 8d

meanwhile Henrico🗿

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 8d

let's play is it real or from a lack of satellites

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 9d

Yeah AG, sorry !

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 9d

I wish I had the audacity (and ignorance) to text a member of the opposing party joking about how you’d shoot the HoD speaker (over Hitler!) and then be like

Yeah, that’s not gonna be a problem, I’ll just run for statewide office now 🤠

Must be a blissful life lmao

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 9d

Here are all the HDs included

I'll update with each update of the file, and keep in mind that it's still exceptionally early in the EV window

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 9d

Alright, as promised

Here's the EV precinct breakdown for the 19 closest HDs in @StateNavigate's forecast

Have IPEV, VBM, and combined EV turnout as a % of 24's totals for each precinct in each HD

I'll start adding full localities soon

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 9d

I really like The Fate of Ophelia, though some of the writing on this album is truly heinous to me

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 9d

I have a sheet with the 19 closest HoD races (per @statenavigate.org) and their EV broken down by precinct

idk how much interest there is in it but I’ll probably make it public when I’m home later today and finish formatting it

(I’ll prob start adding full localities later)

Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 10d

Spending way too much time on this silly precinct breakdown of all these HoD races 🫠

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 10d

nothing that stands out as significant to me yet

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Dj @djsoke.bsky.social · 10d

Spending way too much time on this silly precinct breakdown of all these HoD races 🫠

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