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Dean Oliver

@deanolytics.bsky.social

2.4K followers 53 following 400 posts

Sports analytics pioneer, focusing most on basketball. ESPN, NBA.

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · Jan 22

How should a husband and wife divide credit when she says, "Remind me to go to the drugstore," and then he does it? How to divide credit if she remembers? How to divide the blame if neither remembers? ... with basketball sprinkled in.

open.substack.com/pub/ldeano/p...

Piece of Harmony

Aligning team and player incentives in credit and blame

open.substack.com

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 1d

The *defensive* relationship between productivity, usage, and efficiency is different because lower efficiency means fewer points allowed per possession (not higher, with offense). Usage is also more balanced, ranging from about 18% to 27% on a season basis.

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 1d

Something I put in Basketball Beyond Paper is the relationship between productivity, usage, and possession efficiency. This is what those curves look like, the most productive lines on top.

To be hyperproductive with low usage, you need much higher efficiency.

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 2d

It's NBA preseason, which isn't exactly "garbage time," but there are elements of it. Some players will look better than they will against prime time competition.

Here are last year's NBA players who played the best in garbage time relative to normal time.

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 5d

Players who tend to do much better in wins than losses are the ones a defense generally focuses on.

These are the NBA players with the biggest difference in net points per game between wins and losses.
- Mostly stars
- 2 Bulls
- Jrue surprises me

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 14d

Yeah, Pritchard's distribution is a bit strange, leading to uncertainty in the prediction. The top green line reflects his average production, but the orange being below that suggests he got lucky.

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 14d

Can the Celtics make up for the loss of Tatum, Porzingis, etc.? On the offensive side, "skill curves" from Basketball on Paper look at whether Brown, Pritchard, others can ramp up their offense.

Brown can ramp up a little. White can't. Pritchard can, but the luck he's had likely runs out.

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 15d

In playoff wins this year and last, Kelsey Mitchell has averaged +5.9 total net points. In losses, just -3.0.

For A'ja Wilson, it's been +5.1 in Ws and -0.7 in Ls.

Both are important in tonight's series finale, but Mitchell appears to be a little more so.

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

NFL quarterbacks with the biggest difference in QBR between facing man coverage and zone.
- Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff both in here!
- Tua's struggles
- Kyler Murray last night vs zone: 16.3

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

I have real concern that they won't be at All-Star level this year.

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

So, no, I don't think LeBron and Steph are top ten NBA players anymore.

Historically, they are clearly top ten and that's what makes it so hard to see them fall out of it for the here and now. 6/6

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

They'll claim they feel great going into camp because everyone feels good then.

But in late January after they've lost a tough one to a so-so team and they think about how easy it used to be to make the playoffs, that mental fatigue will wear on them. 5/6

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

They’re feeling older.

Last year, LeBron often tried to get a head start to the offensive end, leaving his man a free look or a teammate in the lurch.

Steph tried to be hyper-efficient with his movement on defense because he ran so much on offense. 4/6

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

But there are also offensive declines.

LeBron hasn’t gotten to the line at the same rate as he used to.

Steph’s shooting is still amazing, but less amazing than it used to be. Both had near-career lows in offensive usage. 3/6

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

Some of it is their defense. Both players allowed the highest shooting percentages to their matchups in the last six years, per GeniusIQ.

Both had their worst defensive years last year in Net Pts per 48 min.

espnanalytics.com/nba-net-pts1...

NBA Net Points Rate - ESPN Analytics

Models and data visualization from ESPN Analytics. NBA & NFL Draft, schedule analysis, receiver scores and more.

espnanalytics.com

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 19d

OK. I have a problem with these rankings.

And my problem is with LeBron and Steph in the top 10. As much as I hate to see it – both on the court and in this graph - they are declining.

They are still “good,” but not top ten. 1/6
www.espn.com/nba/story/_/...

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 20d

Thanks.

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 20d

The top two players in the WNBA playoffs thus far are Kelsey Mitchell and A'ja Wilson, adding +23.0 and +22.6 total net pts to their teams' scoring margins, respectively.

Even after Mitchell wasn't good in the last game and Wilson was great.

They play tonight.

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 21d

From down 20, PHX won by 6. How did they do it?

AT was better, Sabally was better, Copper, Westbeld.

For MIN, their star started great, then struggled. But most of their starters did that.

A change that big is usually more than one player.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 22d

As I watched last night's game, I looked the QBR values for Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff back to their college days. Jackson was really good right out of the box, whereas Goff got gradually better. They've had a similar pattern in the NFL.

www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 23d

A'ja Wilson had her worst game of the season, coincidentally on the day she received her MVP trophy. She added -7.1 net points on 6/22 shooting in a bad loss at home yesterday. But she has had worse games in her career and she has obviously bounced back quickly.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...

Reposted by Dean Oliver

Brian McCormick @brianmccormick.bsky.social · 25d

The Four Factors and practice:
brianmccormick.substack.com/p/skill-deve...

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 25d

Stewie had her competitive juices flowing last night, overcoming a sprained MCL but not overcoming rough nights from teammates.

For PHX, AT had a triple-double (yawn) and got great help from Satou Sabally. Fun to see their joy in the postgame interview.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 26d

@danorlovsky7 said that Justin Herbert is now elite.

Maybe.

Since week 16 of last year, all of his regular season QBR splits have been above average. 6 of 12 were below average last year prior to week 16.

He had a bad playoff game in between.

Two games isn't a trend, but is 6 games with 1 bad?

Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 26d

In last night's one-point series-clinching win, A'ja Wilson produced +8.4 net points, which means that her Aces teammates were worth -7.4. This kind of game where a player carries the team this much in a one-point win - it happens about once a year.

espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...

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Dean Oliver @deanolytics.bsky.social · 27d

When someone like Breanna Stewart has a lousy game while playing injured, it makes you want to study the impact of injuries on on-court performance, not just playing time.

She was worth -5.0 net pts in 20 minutes last night, the 2nd worst game we have for her.
espnanalytics.com/wnba-box?id=...

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