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Dan Oehm

@danoehm.bsky.social

640 followers 1.2K following 590 posts

🔔 Statistician 🫶 #Rstats 📈 #Dataviz 🏃‍♂️ Trail runner 🤘 Metalhead ❤️ Dad 🔥 #survivor 🌏 Canberran 🌿 Vego Survivor Stats db: https://survivorstatsdb.com/ Ramblings: https://gradientdescending.com/

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · Jan 4

I guess I'm over here as well and hoping it can achieve the critical mass needed to sustain people's interest.

Most people will know me for my data viz, R, and stats stuff. I'm also a runner, mountain biker, and a Dad. I mostly fit R around those other things!

Anyway, hi all 👋

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 3h

If Savannah is on one of the other social platforms, would someone mind sharing this with her? She might be interested in the optimal chicken strategy. tl;dr don't kill it.

#Survivor49

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 4h

I'm not going to change 'Sophi' to 'Soph' across the datasets. But I will do this to acknowledge it happened.

#Survivor49

(quietly hoping that was the right Sophi(e))

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 2d

MC, Kristina, and Sophie have not been to tribal council

The data suggests that those who have not been to tribal council before merge are about 2.2x more likely to be voted out next than those who have been to tribal.

#Survivor49

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 4d

13 seasons (the green lines) had a winner with a 100% successful boot record.

* There's a chance I haven't captured all the split votes which should count has being on the right side of the vote.

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 4d

Not quite sure what this means yet but I've plotted the % of players left in the game with a 100% successful boot record.

Only S25 and S49 have had 7 boots and everyone still in the game has a perfect vote record.

It's an interesting pattern though.

#Survivor49 #dataviz

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Reposted by Dan Oehm

Josh Kettles 🤙🏼 @joshkettles.bsky.social · 4d

The illustrious Rio Teixeira — artist behind many of your favorite #Survivor projects (including #FUPASU) — joined us to chat Sage v Shannon, galaxy brain knowledge is power ideas, & more!

🔥 futurepastsurvivor.com

🟢 open.spotify.com/episode/2RuK...
🍎 podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f...

#survivor49

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 6d

Keen to get your thoughts on a secret alliance between Sophi and Rizo. Perhaps they agree for Sophi to steal Rizos idol with her KIP and cause some controlled chaos at the next tribal. Can they spook others into using their sitd, vote incorrectly, or something else?

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 7d

I hate to break it to Jeff, but 3 tribes increases the places to hide and suppresses gameplay.

A 3 tribe set up is correlated with more people making it merge without attending tribal council at least once.

#Survivor

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 13d

Today's #Survivor rabbit hole

After #Survivor49 ep 5, two things stood out:
1. Every player left in the game that has gone to tribal council has a 100% successful boot % (assuming ep4 was a split vote).
2. Half the players haven't been to Tribal Council

What I found out about 2 is kind of cool 👇 🧵

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 7d

#Survivor49 who has voted with who

This is semi-interesting since we've had two swaps before merge and connections have been made

Alex and Sophi have the strongest connection, voting with each other 3 times. Sophi has a good connection with Uli

I wager a player yet to go to TC goes home next week

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 7d

Counts

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 7d

#Survivor49 e6 confessionals per hour

Top 10 at e6:
1. Yam Yam 2.6x 🏆
2. Carolyn 2.2x ⭐
3. Savannah 2.1x
4. Emily 1.8x
5. Kaleb 1.7x
6. Carson 1.7x
7. Kenzie 1.6x 🏆
8. Q 1.6x
9. Jesse 1.6x
10. Charlie 1.6x ⭐

Key:
🏆 Winner
⭐ Finalist
Nx more CPH than expected

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 8d

In 48 seasons, a player who was first to be on the wrong side of the vote has won only 3 times. Assuming equal chance, we would expect 13-14 players.

Those 3 players are:
- Chris S9
- Danni S11
- Bob S17

It hasn't happened in 31 seasons. Kinda cool.

gradientdescending.com/how-importan...

How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge? - Dan Oehm | Gradient Descending

Survivor players know the importance of being on the right side of the vote at the first tribal after merge. But how important is it?

gradientdescending.com

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 8d

For example, at the final 8, assuming equal chance, a player has a 1-in-8 (12.5%) chance of winning, their odds drop to about 3% after voting incorrectly.

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Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 8d

Being the first player on the “wrong side” of a post-merge vote (but still in the game) significantly decreases your probability of winning the game.

A player’s chances of winning are 75% lower after being on the wrong side of the vote.

1 1

Dan Oehm @danoehm.bsky.social · 8d

How important is it to be on the right side of the vote after merge?

Turns out, massively important!

I measured the impact of being one of the first players on the wrong side of the vote after merge on their chances of winning. Yeah, not good. 🧵

#Survivor #Survivor49