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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

Mind you, the median age includes babies, which means the vital 18-35 demo we’re talking about is only like 1/4th of the population to begin

Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

Crazily enough the median age in China is 40 and already surpassed us last year. Demographics go brrrr

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

At least 40% of the mainstream political discourse centers around a demographic (college-ed women 18-35 with a BA) that can’t be more than 3-4% of the US population.

Most ppl do not go to college. Most people are old. The median age in the US is 39!

Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

It also goes the other way, think of all the hitpieces on liberal college ed women 25-34, which narrows down to:

45.5M 25-34
22.8M of those are women
10.7M have college degrees (per Pew)

And then how many are liberal and care about politics? It’s really not that many

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

Even if every single one voted, they only broke for Harris 60/40, so that’s 6.4M, and then turnout in that age cohort is maybe 50-55% at best.

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

It also goes the other way, think of all the hitpieces on liberal college ed women 25-34, which narrows down to:

45.5M 25-34
22.8M of those are women
10.7M have college degrees (per Pew)

And then how many are liberal and care about politics? It’s really not that many

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

Think of the Subway Builder mods for Guantanamopolis!

Jenny Cohn @jennycohn.bsky.social · May 11

Anduril founder Palmer Luckey says the US should “expand our naval base on Guantanamo Bay into Liberty City [ie, a ‘freedom city’], an American Singapore of the Caribbean.” Anduril is backed by Tech Bros Peter Thiel & Marc Andreessen who support aspiring “network states” via Pronomos Capital. 1/

Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

The liberal bubble, as it is, truly is the “minority” faction and has typically always been in US politics. But that bubble, even at out low ebb of 10% self-ID’ing as “very liberal” on Marquette, is a solid 15-20 million people, more than enough to keep a website like this afloat

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 2h

The size of the US and its connectivity makes small bubbles feel very large. You can have 0.2% of the adult population believing Greta Thunberg is the Antichrist and that’d still be 516,000 adults to create a community from

+ millions of English speakers abroad to convert (cough, the UK, India)

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 4h

Throughout this, the Gallup rate of non-binary is 1-2%, I doubt there was a huge surge in 2023 to begin with

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 5h

If the midterm electorate is Harris +14…yeah Collins is not winning that even w/2020 ticket splitting

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 5h

Entirely possible if the generic Ballot is D+5, people seem to have ignored Maine swinging the least right of the Northeast states

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 5h

We sorta did this with Maggie Hassan after she torpedoed min wage in the BBB negotiations and did a ton of moderating…then obliterated Bolduc. Sometimes the brand does matter even if you’re old

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 5h

Yeahhh I have reservations but I also have “Mills did better in a Biden midterm than in the 2018 blue wave year” in the back of my mind

Joel Wertheimer @wertwhile.bsky.social · 7h

Janet Mills has won four statewide elections in Maine. I feel like she’s underrated as an electoral force. I know she’s old but if I’m maximizing on Susan Collins losing and nothing else I don’t think we know the right answer.

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 5h

It’s so wild how bad humans are at protecting their lives from lead, we’ve known it was bad since at least the Ancient Greeks and we still keep doing this

paris martineau @paris.nyc · 13h

my latest investigation for @consumerreports.org is based on months of reporting and 60+ lab tests of leading protein supplements

we found that most protein powders and shakes have more lead in one serving than our experts say is safe to have in a day (🧵)

www.consumerreports.org/lead/protein...

Protein Powders and Shakes Contain High Levels of Lead - Consumer Reports

CR tests of 23 popular protein powders and shakes found that most contain high levels of lead.

www.consumerreports.org

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 7h

Haha funny you say that, in Spain I believe the polls say like 20-25% of young people are at least bi, so no one knows what the ceiling is

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 7h

why are you against upzoning and dense transit-oriented development in Guantanamo Bay

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 8h

the thing is, we already do this in real studies, it always shows younger generations identifying as LGBTQ+ over time, even the damn American Enterprise Institute run by center-right wonks agrees

www.americansurveycenter.org/newsletter/w...

www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/...

What’s Behind the Rapid Rise in LGBTQ Identity? - The Survey Center on American Life

Since 2012, Gallup has tracked the size of America’s LGBTQ population. For the first few years, there was not much news to report. The percentage of Americans who identified as gay, lesbian, bisexual,...

www.americansurveycenter.org

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 8h

yeah ideally you'd uh, do some more interviews instead of looking at 5-second Excel chart

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 8h

I mean, I would look at those numbers and say "maybe gender is even more of a social construct than we thought"

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 8h

perhaps. the issue I have with these is that instead of saying "wow, interesting, I should do more academic research into this topic", journalists can go "well trans was a fad, clearly"

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 8h

it seems like mostly noise, the article also mentioned that rates of gay/lesbian were about the same over time, but I have seen other studies that show that stat continues to rise over new cohorts of young people

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 8h

that's most social science data tbf

Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 9h

the maximal extent of Stancilism leads you to thinking the Weimar Republic fell because of vibes and not bc it had the Worst Economy of All Time

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Corn Cob (Tariffed) @corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 9h

eh, well it's entirely possible there was a response effect in these more conservative times, we don't know

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