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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 10m

Some good news for the UK economy: inflation has likely peaked and the labour market shows signs of stabilising.

In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores what this means for monetary policy and the wider economic outlook.

Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Economy in brief: October 2025 | CBI

Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.

www.cbi.org.uk

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 3d

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 8d

CBI Deputy Chief Economist @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social said “Uncertainty around the upcoming Budget is weighing heavily on sentiment, with many firms keeping key decisions on hold until more clarity is forthcoming”

🔗 To learn more, click here: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Private sector downturn set to persist into 2026 - CBI Growth Indicator - October 2025 | CBI

Private sector downturn set to persist into 2026 - CBI Growth Indicator - October 2025

www.cbi.org.uk

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 8d

📊Firms expect to see further declines into early 2026:
• Business & professional services: -12%
• Consumer services: -28%
• Distribution: -34%
• Manufacturing: -19%

[Figures shown are net balances – the percentage of firms expecting an increase minus those expecting a decrease]

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 8d

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO PERSIST INTO 2026

Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 9d

Weak consumer confidence and caution ahead of the Autumn Budget continue to weigh on the retail sector, according to our latest Distributive Trades Survey.

For a more detailed look at the October DTS data, check out our press release 👇
www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

Retail Sales Fall Amid Weak Confidence and Budget Concerns - CBI DTS October 2025 | CBI

Retail Sales Fall Amid Weak Confidence and Budget Concerns - CBI DTS October 2025

www.cbi.org.uk

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 10d

Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) continued to fall at a firm rate in the year to October. Firms expect the downturn to deepen next month.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 10d

Wholesalers reported another difficult trading month, with annual sales volumes falling at a fast rate in October. Sales are expected to decline at a slightly quicker pace next month.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 10d

Internet sales volumes grew slightly in the year to October but are expected to contract at a modest pace next month.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 10d

Retail sales for the time of year were seen as “poor” in October, to a similar extent as last month. Retailers expect sales to remain below seasonal norms in November.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 10d

Year-on-year retail sales volumes fell at a strong rate in October amid weak consumer confidence and Budget concerns - according to the latest CBI DTS. Retailers expect the 13-month-long downturn to extend into November.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 13d

September’s growth was largely driven by non-store retailers’ sales volumes, with sales volumes at a three-year-high. In particular, online jewellers reported strong demand for gold, while computer and telecoms sales also rose firmly, possibly boosted by new tech launches.

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 13d

Retail sales volumes rose by 0.5% m/m in September (from 0.6% in August), marking a fourth consecutive month of growth. Over Q3 as a whole, sales rose to their highest level in three years (by 0.9%), boosted in part by the good weather seen over the summer.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

🏭For more information, check out our press release: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

UK manufacturers slam the brakes on investment as demand weakens – CBI Industrial Trends Survey | CBI

UK manufacturers slam the brakes on investment as demand weakens – CBI Industrial Trends Survey

www.cbi.org.uk

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

Numbers employed fell in the quarter to October, at the fastest pace in five years. Manufacturers expect another fall in employment in the quarter to January.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

The main constraint on investment was uncertainty about demand, followed by inadequate net return, and a shortage of internal finance.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

Investment intentions for the year ahead have deteriorated. Manufacturers expect to reduce investment in plant & machinery, in buildings, in product & process innovation, and in training & retraining.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

Average costs rose in the quarter to October at an elevated pace. Costs growth is expected to remain historically strong in the quarter to January. Both domestic and export prices are anticipated to rise in the next three months at an above average pace.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

Business sentiment deteriorated in October. Export optimism for the year ahead also declined further.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

Manufacturing competitiveness deteriorated across all major markets in the three months to October. Competitiveness is expected to worsen again in the three months to January.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

Total new orders fell through the quarter, reflecting the fastest pace of decline since July 2020 for both domestic and export orders. Manufacturers expect the total volume of new orders to decline again in the three months to January.

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 14d

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to October, at a similar pace to the quarter to September. Firms expect volumes to fall again in the three months to January.

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Reposted by CBI Economics

Martin Sartorius @martinsartorius.bsky.social · 15d

UK inflation came in lower than expected in September (at 3.8%), though it remains well above the BoE's 2% target. We expect inflation to slowly ease in the coming months, but we are unlikely to see a more substantial downshift until the first half of next year

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 15d

UK #CPI inflation held steady at 3.8% in the year to September, undershooting consensus expectations (of 4.0%). Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased slightly to 3.5% (from 3.6% in August)

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CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 15d

Check out our full response here: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

CBI responds to latest inflation data for September | CBI

CBI responds to latest inflation data for September

www.cbi.org.uk

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 15d

Unchanged #inflation in September reflected a large upward contribution from transport being offset by downward contributions from other categories, including recreation & culture and food & drink

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