Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

Reposted by Bob Kopp

NASAWATCH @nasawatch.bsky.social · 1d

A message from JPL Director Dave Gallagher announces a JPL layoff of 500 people has been announced that is "not related to the current government shutdown". www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/jpl-wor...

JPL Workforce Update

A message from JPL Director Dave Gallagher

www.jpl.nasa.gov

4 11 24

Reposted by Bob Kopp

Dana Nuccitelli @dananuccitelli.bsky.social · 11h

For @climateconnections.bsky.social today, with the help of @bobkopp.net & @andrewdessler.com's team of 85 climate scientists and the National Academies, I fact checked the EPA/DOE's claim that carbon pollution is good for food production. Spoiler alert: it's not. Article and 🧵 (1/9):

Fact-checking a Trump administration claim about climate change and crops » Yale Climate Connections

A recent Department of Energy report falsely states that rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere will boost agricultural yields. In fact, climate change is much more likely to make food scarcer...

yaleclimateconnections.org

1 25 39

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

AMOC collapse is another thing that could cause such reversals on a more sustained basis, and could be mentioned in that context, but immediate strategic communication about something that might unfold over the next couple centuries seems more likely to shed communicatin than light.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

To me, if we are talking about reversals, the priority is for people to understand that if 2026 is substantially cooler than the 2024 high of around 1.5°C, it's not a sign that global warming is reversal.

1 2

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

And the report doesn't present a convincing case that, even in Europe, "there is an immediate need for strategic public communication about the potential of trend reversals due to tipping points."

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

The one thing arguably different in this table is 'trend reversals.' This seems a primarily European concern about the consequences of potential AMOC collapse, not something that the report effectively argues is a general tipping points trait.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

But this part of the report is specifically arguing that Earth system tipping point governance is qualitatively different than climate change governance, and basing it on characteristics that I think are also manifest in the likely societal responses to 'plain old' climate change.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

Now, one might counter-argue is that my reaction is because I think "negative social tipping points" are an important and likely consequence of gradual climate change. And you'd be right, though I don't like the terminology.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

Different distribution of impacts: Once you account for societal consequences, impact distributions are complicated!

Novel impacts and cascade effects: Acceleration societal change, even as a result of linear climate change, are likely to have novel and cascading impacts.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

Increased magnitude of impacts: See above. Going from 1.5 coastal flood events/year in the 1970s to 10/year in the 2010s (as on the Jersey shore) has had significant impacts, but going from 10/year to 100/year by the 2050s will have an increased magnitude.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

Acceleration of change: even with linear global mean warming, the frequency of extremes and their impacts increase more then linearly, as a simple conseuqence of the shape of frequency distributions.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

Commitment and irreversibility: on human timescales, global warming due to CO2 is effectively irreversible, barring intervention with a technology (direct air capture) that we have no idea if it will work effectively at scale.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 14h

This is a useful table, but it seems like it's making a strawman argument about climate change governance without Earth system tipping points.

Most of these characteristics apply to climate change in general, at least if you're concerned about societal impacts.

GTP 2025, Table 1.1.1: Differences between conventional climate change governance and governance for ESTPs

Characteristics include: thresholds, acceleration of change, increased magnitude of impacts, trend reversals, different distribution of impacts, novel impacts, and cascade effects.

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 16h

Atlantic City tide gauge data show water levels peaking at about 2 ft above high tide line

Water Levels - NOAA Tides & Currents

provides measured water levels data in chart and table

tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 16h

High tide flooding along the Jersey shore after yesterday’s nor’easter, video courtesy Rob Auermuller

lifeontheedgedrones on Instagram: "High water vehicles and heros were out in force in Tuckerton Beach this afternoon! #thanks #lifeontheedgedrones #noreaster #tuckert…"

High water vehicles and heros were out in force in Tuckerton Beach this afternoon! #thanks #lifeontheedgedrones #noreaster #tuckertonbeachView all comments

www.instagram.com

1 4 5

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

In the AMOC case study, the authors do argue for consideration of what I would call high-impact outcomes of poorly known likelihood in adaptation planning (I concur, and something that is doing in the sea level world often without invoking the tipping points framing).

1 1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

My personal opinion is intermediate between the two reports, but I don't love the direction of the trend line. I do, however, think that (2023 report to the contrary) laying the groundwork for geoengineering is a natural consequence of making Earth system tipping points a primary policy target.

2 2

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

Contrast the 2023 report: "We strongly caution against reliance on solar geoengineering as a major tool for preventing tipping points, or the expectation that this kind of approach will be available and politically acceptable in the future to contribute to prevention efforts."

1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

The 2025 GTP report takes a strikingly more favorable attitude to SRM than the 2023 report, while noting that "Any deployment must be evaluated through a comprehensive, risk-risk framework, which weighs different kinds of risk against each other, identifying trade-offs."

1 2

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

One obvious approach is to reduce the magnitude of climate change through decarbonization and CDR (which one wants to do anyways because of climate risk). The other two ways listed in the report -- which are more particular to the setting -- are SRM and Greenland ice sheet engineering.

1 1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

This one does jump out: "Preventing the crossing of AMOC or SPG tipping points should be a primary governance target." How does one make crossing a deeply uncertain threshold -- one that might or might not be detectable in advance -- a primary governance target?

1 1

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

Most of them are recommendations that can be justified by growing climate risk, tipping points or no. The concept of 'positive tipping points' seems largely indistinguishable from 'leverage points' or 'societal transformation,' except for sharing a phrase with 'Earth system tipping points'

1 2

Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 1d

New Global Tipping Points report from Lenton et al is out.

I haven't had a chance to digest all of it, but reading through the summary recommendations, it strikes me that the concept of 'tipping points' is needed for for very few of them --

Global Tipping Points | understanding risks & their potential impact

Harmful tipping points in the natural world threaten humanity by disrupting life support systems and societal stability.

global-tipping-points.org

3 14 31

Reposted by Bob Kopp

Central NJ Yimby 🏗️🚲🚇🇺🇸 @princetonyimby.bsky.social · 1d

A lot of Republicans down the Jersey Shore turned out to be great friends of the whales when there was a chance that some offshore wind farms might get built. Looking forward to hearing about how they react to this news...

Dustin Mulvaney @dustinmulvaney.bsky.social · 2d

Republicans are aiming next to dismantle the marine mammal protection act, which protects whales, dolphins, manatees, polar bears, and sea otters.. among other ocean wildlife. 🦦

Horror Tor, friend of Union ghosts @splitrailfence.bsky.social · 2d

I love it. Makes me happy.
Weird that I'm now seeing your post here after I just read about the bill to end the 1970s marine mammal legislation to protect these beautiful creatures.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/wir...

3 15 55

Reposted by Bob Kopp

Faine Greenwood @faineg.bsky.social · 2d

“The single most important problem for pro-democracy forces is that too many people — especially in position of power — seem unable to truly believe that we are living in a consolidating competitive authoritarian regime.”

Faine Greenwood @faineg.bsky.social · 2d

I agree with everything @dhnexon.bsky.social says in this post about where we’re at with the American Republic today and where we must go from here:

www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/10/the-...

The State of the Republic is Grim - Lawyers, Guns & Money

If you’re on Bluesky and follow me, you’ve probably seen that I’m writing threads that really should be the basis for posts at LGM. You’ve also likely gotten a bead on where I am these days. Here’s a ...

www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com

3 59 180