Author | Lightnews

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 1d

Thrilled to join the first episode of The CBI Exchange - our brand new podcast!

Tune in as we unpack the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, speculate on what we might expect from the Chancellor, and outline what business needs to thrive

audioboom.com/posts/880055...

The CBI Exchange: The Budget Briefing

Join us for a seat at the table with the people shaping the UK economy - from business leaders and economists to the policymakers behind the headlines.

audioboom.com

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 8d

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO PERSIST INTO 2026

Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.

1 1 2

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 13d

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to October, at a similar pace to the quarter to September. Firms expect volumes to fall again in the three months to January.

1 1 1

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 16d

Really pleased to be able to host Jon Hall of the Bank of England's FPC this week, for his upcoming speech on the balance between financial stability and long-term economic growth. Link to register below 👇

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · 16d

This Thursday, we're pleased to be hosting Jon Hall, External Member of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee, for a discussion on safeguarding UK financial stability while supporting long-term growth.

🔒 Members only - register here: events.cbi.org.uk/event/2b056a....

Home - CBI Member Discussion with Jon Hall, External Member of the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC)

events.cbi.org.uk

1

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · 28d

I vividly remember my school using theirs! It always turned out to be less fun than it looked.

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 30

With weak underlying economic momentum and sticky #inflation, the #MPC is set to tread cautiously. In our September’s Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores the Bank Rate decision, UK outlook and jittery bond markets.

Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Economy in brief: September 2025 | CBI

Your monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK’s main business sectors.

www.cbi.org.uk

1 2

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Sep 12

A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey.

Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022

2 2

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 5

The last week saw a rise in bond yields across advanced economies, reflecting concern in markets about the state of public finances across the G7

Why did yields spike, and why have they remained higher in the UK than elsewhere? Check out our latest note:
www.cbi.org.uk/articles/unp...

Unpacking recent moves in global bond markets | CBI

Bond yields surged across major economies, with Japan’s 30-year hitting a record and UK gilts peaking at 5.75%—the highest since 1998. Turbulence continues.

www.cbi.org.uk

2 1

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

Kien Tan @kientan74.bsky.social · Sep 5

📈 I've been critical of the ONS in the past, but this is a refreshingly honest account of how they've started to fix issues with retail sales in the past few weeks. Let's hope they can adopt this approach across other published statistics: blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/05/c...

Correcting the record on retail sales, improving quality across economic statistics

Under new senior leadership the ONS is urgently focusing its resources on core economic statistics as part of a wider strategic recovery plan. In this post, incoming Director General for economic soci

blog.ons.gov.uk

1 2 2

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Sep 2

Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC.

In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks:
· Why the MPC is so divided
· Mixed signals on UK growth
· What’s next for private sector activity

Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Economy in brief: August 2025 | CBI

Your monthly guide to the UK economy, giving you a monthly overview of the major trends impacting the UK's main business sectors.

www.cbi.org.uk

2

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

Economics Observatory @econ-observatory.bsky.social · Aug 27

This week is the #NobelPrize meeting 🎓
Since the Economics prize was introduced in 1969, over half of all laureates have been US–born.
Last year’s laureates: Daron Acemoglu 🇹🇷, James Robinson 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & Simon Johnson 🇬🇧, won for their research on institutions, growth & inequality.

#ChartOfTheDay

1 1

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Aug 26

A characteristically hawkish speech from Catherine Mann, mostly focusing on the dangers of inflation persistence. But she leaves the door open to voting for "forceful policy action" if downside risks to growth materialise:
www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...

Five ‘C’s for Central Bank Research − speech by Catherine L. Mann

Given at The Future of Central Banking conference on the occasion of the 100th Anniversary, Banco de México

www.bankofengland.co.uk

1

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Aug 21

Our latest #manufacturing survey continues to paint an un-pretty picture of activity, chiming with the weakness in this morning's flash manufacturing PMI. More below 👇

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Aug 21

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to August, after being broadly unchanged in the three months to July. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.

2 1

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Aug 20

Haha I thought of you when this email came into my inbox! My (very limited) understanding is that the delay may be something to do with seasonal adjustment issues

2

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Aug 20

Business investment is notoriously volatile at the best of times, and tends to be revised heavily during the ONS' annual balancing process in both directions.

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Aug 20

To note that the ONS' 2025 Blue Book GDP estimates show a much stronger picture for business investment, largely due to higher R&D spending

Capex now estimated to have consistently recovered its COVID decline in Q3 2021 - two years earlier than in the current vintage of data

1

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

Harvir Dhillon @harvirdhillon.bsky.social · Aug 19

Slightly worrying that the publication of the ONS' retail sales statistics has been delayed with such little notice.

1 3 2

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 31

Weak growth, stubborn inflation

The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain.

This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒

https://www.cbi.org.uk/articles/economy-in-brief-july-2025/

t.co

1 1

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Aug 5

Good chart from Deutsche Bank, showing just how long the BoE's latest easing cycle has been. Assuming a few more rate cuts, it's set to be the longest in post-war history.

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 30

Today marks a milestone! 🎉 The CBI is proud to celebrate 60 years of championing business growth, driving change, and influencing policy.

Find out more about becoming a member: orlo.uk/Lu9zw

Here’s to the next 60 years! 💼

#CBI60 #VoiceOfBusiness #BusinessGrowth

1 2

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Jul 30

Growth momentum remained weak going into Q3, according to our latest surveys. Continued headwinds from higher employment costs, energy prices and global volatility. Businesses cite a growing focus on managing costs and streamlining processes

Read our full take below 👇

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 30

📉 Private sector firms expect activity to fall again through October.
The latest CBI Growth Indicator shows continued weakness across the economy, extending a run of negative sentiment that began in late 2024

1

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Jul 25

Little movement in the UK GfK consumer #confidence index this month, BUT - the "now is a good time to save index" jumped by 7 points, to its highest since late 2007.

Further illustrates continued caution among households, and focus on rebuilding finances after a tough few years.

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Jul 24

"Economics today resembles Catholic theology in medieval Europe: a rigid doctrine guarded by a modern priesthood who claim to possess the sole truth"

Great piece by Ha-Joon Chang, referencing the ongoing work of @rethinkecon.bsky.social

www.ft.com/content/9aab...

Economics teaching has become the Aeroflot of ideas

The discipline is failing students by ignoring the biggest social, political and ecological challenges facing the world today

www.ft.com

Reposted by Alpesh Paleja

CBI Economics @cbieconomics.bsky.social · Jul 24

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes were broadly unchanged in the quarter to July. Firms expect volumes to fall slightly in the three months to October. #ITS

1 1 3

Alpesh Paleja @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social · Jul 22

Great chart from Deutsche Bank, showing just how divided the Bank of England's MPC are at the moment. And split views seem to be picking up, as the labour market loosens.

Though divisions within the Committee aren't necessarily a bad thing, of course.

1