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Alex Edwards

@alexedw.bsky.social

51 followers 290 following 140 posts

Known to post about Books 📚, Forestry 🌲, Technology 🤖, Climate 🌤️, Parenting 👨‍🍼

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Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 22h

RFK Jr is going to be responsible for millions of deaths. So you absolutely do not have to excuse the behavior of someone who enabled and defended him.

Bradley P. Moss @bradmossesq.bsky.social · 1d

Everyone in my feed is shitting on Nuzzi. Meanwhile, the other person in the saga is now destroying the medical community and endangering public health.

But let’s slut shame Nuzzi.

Oliver Darcy @oliverdarcy.bsky.social · 1d

Scoop: Olivia Nuzzi has written a book during her year in exile, in which she is set to in part address her relationship with RFK Jr. Details in @status.news: www.status.news/p/olivia-nuz...

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 1d

Oh shit thanks for the reminder

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 2d

I know he's good but he's looked goofy against the wall multiple times this series

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 3d

How nice would it be if we didn't run Charbs 3 times from inside the 10?

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 3d

Bradford is why you don't call shotgun run plays on 2nd and long

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 7d

That's a great point I've never considered

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 10d

Playoff baseball burn and a James Joyce reference? Still got the heater 💪

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 10d

Finnegans Weak

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 12d

I need to find where the Bendites are at

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 17d

At the 40-40 club ESPN on the screen

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 17d

Also Geno is bad in Vegas which is Vegas's fault. Nothing can ever be Geno's fault.

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 17d

Geno was mid in Seattle which was Seattle's fault. Now Darnold is good in Seattle which is also because of Seattle.

you are not immune to trenchant analysis @wrongopinionman.bsky.social · 17d

Geno goes to LV and they need him to play hero ball again every down, Darnold goes to SEA and they just ask him to not turn into a pumpkin. Results as expected in each case

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 17d

Geno has the lead! And a RB with a 64 yard TD in this game!

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · 17d

Definitely. People super respected Grubbs run game last year

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Sep 7

Have they moved the pocket once this game?

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Sep 7

Move the pocket one time

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Aug 21

Any chance they suspect Walker is sitting out because he wants an extension?

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Aug 19

Starting 1-3 overall and 0-2 in the division would generate enough content to feed families

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Aug 19

GPT-5 woke up a lot of folks who thought "line go up" was the only possibility. It's possible things are pretty ugly fairly soon, but I'll be curious to see how long it takes.

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Aug 19

VC investment to revenue ratio is higher now than it was during the peak of the dotcom bubble (by roughly triple if you remove NVIDIA). And tech is a way bigger part of the economy now than it was 25 years ago.

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Aug 18

Safe to say that if your priors on LLMs haven't shifted dramatically over the past two weeks, you probably haven't been paying attention

JW Mason @jwmason.bsky.social · Aug 17

I feel like "CoreWeave defaults on its debt" should definitely be somewhere on our AI bubble pops bingo card. www.ft.com/content/e128...

Reposted by Alex Edwards

Chris Person @papapishu.bsky.social · Aug 8

Asking GPT5 how many days of the week there are and getting reproduced arguments from that one bodybuilding dot com forum thread like a ghost in the machine.

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Jul 28

a sloth in a green shirt and khaki pants

ALT: a sloth in a green shirt and khaki pants

media.tenor.com

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Jul 25

It's going to be necessary when the AI layoffs pick up steam.

Alex Edwards @alexedw.bsky.social · Jul 21

I'm not among those who think that there's no path to profitability for AI. I think the bigger issue for the incumbents is the commoditization of AI.

Ed Zitron @edzitron.com · Jul 21

The AI Trade is hollow - the magnificent 7 will spend over $560 billion in capital expenditures in 2025 and is expected to make *$35 billion of revenue, not profit*. Every single generative AI product is a money-loser, and customers don't like it either.
www.wheresyoured.at/the-haters-gui/

The Hollow "AI Trade"

I'm so tired of people telling me that companies are "making tons of money on AI." Nobody is making a profit on generative AI other than NVIDIA. No, really, I’m serious.
The Magnificent 7's AI Story Is Flawed, With $560 Billion of Capex between 2024 and 2025 Leading to $35 billion of Revenue, And No Profit

If they keep their promises, by the end of 2025, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Tesla will have spent over $560 billion in capital expenditures on AI in the last two years, all to make around $35 billion.

This is egregiously fucking stupid.

Microsoft AI Revenue In 2025: $13 billion, with $10 billion from OpenAI, sold "at a heavily discounted rate that essentially only covers costs for operating the servers."
Capital Expenditures in 2025: $80 billion

As of January 2025, Microsoft's "annualized" — meaning [best month]x12 — revenue from artificial intelligence was around $13 billion, a number that it chose not to update in its last earnings, likely because it's either flat or not growing, though it could in its upcoming late-July earnings. Yet the problem with this revenue is that $10 billion of that revenue, according to The Information, comes from OpenAI's spend on Microsoft's Azure cloud, and Microsoft offers preferential pricing — "a heavily discounted rental rate that essentially only covers Microsoft's costs for operating the servers" according to The Information.

In simpler terms, 76.9% of Microsoft's AI revenue comes from OpenAI, and is sold at just above or at cost, making Microsoft's "real" AI revenue about $3 billion, or around 3.75% of this year's capital expenditures, or 16.25% if you count OpenAI's revenue, which costs Microsoft more money than it earns.

The Information reports that Microsoft made $4.7 billion in "AI revenue" in 2024, of which OpenAI accounted for $2 billion, meaning that for the $135.7 billion that Microsoft has spent in the last two years on AI infrastructure, it has made $17.7 billion, of which OpenAI accounted for $12.7 billion.

Amazon AI Revenue In 2025: $5 billion
Capital Expenditures in 2025: $105 billion

Things do not improve elsewhere. An analyst estimates that Amazon, which plans to spend $105 billion in capital expenditures this year, will make $5 billion on AI in 2025, rising, and I quote, "as much as 80%," suggesting that Amazon may have made a measly $1 billion in 2024 on AI in a year when it spent $83 billion in capital expenditures.

Last year, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said that “AI represents for sure the biggest opportunity since cloud and probably the biggest technology shift and opportunity in business since the internet." I think he's full of shit.
Google AI Revenue: $7.7 Billion (at most)
Capital Expenditures in 2025: $75 Billion

Bank of America analyst Justin Post estimated a few weeks ago that Google's AI revenue would be in the region of $7.7 billion, though his math is, if I'm honest, a little generous:

Google’s artificial intelligence model is set to drive $4.2 billion in subscription revenue within its Google Cloud segment in 2025, according to an analysis from Bank of America last week.

That includes $3.1 billion in revenue from subscribers to Google’s AI plans with its Google One service, Bank of America’s Justin Post estimates.

Post also expects that the integration of Google’s Gemini AI features within its Workspace service will drive $1.1 billion of the $7.7 billion in revenue he projects for that segment in 2025.

Google's "One" subscription includes increased cloud storage across Google Drive, Gmail and Google Photos, and added a $20-a-month "premium" plan in February 2024 that included access to Google's various AI models. Google has claimed that the "premium AI tier accounts for millions" of the 150 million subscribers to the service, though how many millions is impossible to estimate — but that won't stop me trying!

Assuming that $3.1 billion in 2025 revenue would work out to $258 million a month, that would mean there were 12.9 million Google One subscribers also paying for the premium AI tier. This isn't out of the realm of possibility — after all, OpenAI has 15.5 million paying subscribers — but Post is making a generous assumption here. Nevertheless, we'll accept the numbers as they are.

And the numbers fuckin' stink! Google's $1.1 billion in workspace service revenue came from a forced price-hike on those who use Google services to run their businesses, meaning that this is likely not a number that can significantly increase without punishing them further.

$7.7 billion of revenue — not profit! — on $75 billion of capital expenditures. Nasty!