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Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

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Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas is a French economist who has been the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund since 2022. Gourinchas… more

H-index: 51
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
To secure growth, countries must focus on what works: clear trade rules, fiscal discipline, robust policy frameworks, and investments in productivity. The alternative is slower, more volatile economic activity. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our WEO analysis also shows that reducing policy uncertainty and lowering tariffs could lift global output by up to 0.7% in the near term. Clear trade rules and cooperation are more critical than ever. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
World Economic Outlook, October 2025: Global Economy in Flux, Prospects Remain Dim
The latest World Economic Outlook reports a slowdown in global growth with risks remaining tilted to the downside. As new policies slowly come to focus, adjustment to the emerging landscape should be ...
www.imf.org
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Other forces are at play: AI investment is booming, echoing the dot-com era, while China's property sector struggles and fiscal pressures mount. These dynamics create a complex, uneven recovery.
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Six months on, the tariff shock's impact has been smaller than expected thanks to agile supply chains and easy financial conditions. But with US tariffs still at almost 20% and tensions unresolved, the full effects will take time to unfold.
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our October WEO report is out. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.2% this year and 3.1% next year, defying fears of a sharper slowdown after the US tariff surge. Yet, this resilience masks deeper fragilities in trade, AI, and fiscal policy. imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas — Reposted by Andrea Presbitero

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
New WEO chapter is out. Industrial policy can raise production in a strategic sector, but this needs to be balanced against higher consumer prices, fiscal costs, and risks of misallocation. Managing these trade-offs is key. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas — Reposted by Andrea Presbitero

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Despite these shifts, the international monetary system remains solidly anchored by the US dollar, which continues to provide global stability, even if the excess return on US foreign assets (the US 'exorbitant privilege') has declined over time. imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Global current account balances widened in 2024, reversing a narrowing trend. Our latest External Sector Report finds that 2/3 of this widening is excessive—driven by macroeconomic imbalances in China, the US, and the euro area. Read the full report a imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our policy recommendations call for prudence and improved collaboration. The first priority should be to restore a clear stable and predictable trade environment. Monetary policy must remain agile; rebuilding fiscal buffers is crucial, and structural reforms remain needed.
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
In the US, tariffs constitute a negative supply shock, with growth revised down and inflation revised up. For trading partners like China, tariffs are mostly a negative demand shock, with growth and inflation both revised down. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our report presents a range of global growth outlooks: Compared to the reference forecast, growth would have been higher under the pre-April 2 alternative, while the pause on April 9, even if permanent, does not significantly alter the negative impact on global growth.
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Our new WEO out. The global economy is entering a new era. Effective tariff rates reach levels not seen in a century. We project global growth at 2.8% for 2025—a major downgrade reflecting escalating trade tensions and high policy uncertainty. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
New WEO chapter out. Tighter migration policies can alter where people move to and under what category— with ripple effects across and within countries www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
Migration and Refugee Policies Steer People, and Economies, in New Directions
When destination countries tighten migration and refugee policies, it has economic ripple effects elsewhere
www.imf.org
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

by International Monetary Fund — Reposted by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

Reposted by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

Reposted by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

jintlecon.bsky.social
New at JIE: "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?" by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (@pgourinchas.bsky.social), Andrea F. Presbitero, Petia Topalova

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042
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Reposted by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas, Roberta Gatti

by Andrea Presbitero — Reposted by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas, Caterina Mendicino

by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Policymakers should prioritize urgent fiscal policy adjustments and targeted structural reforms while maintaining price stability in an environment of fragile inflation expectations. Success in achieving sustainable global growth will require international cooperation. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
Persistent divergence between economies, reflects in part structural factors. The US shows stronger productivity growth, which has helped raise its potential growth compared to other countries. www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Art...
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by Pierre‐Olivier Gourinchas

pgourinchas.bsky.social
We have revised US growth up while the euro area faces headwinds from low consumer confidence and the persistence of the energy price shock. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
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