4) Final assignment was a 4-page take-home paper with in an in-person, oral defense.

It’s not perfect. And I average 25 to 30 students per class, so some of these techniques might be infeasible for larger classes. But I found they made a big difference.

3) I did in-class polls at the beginning of class to hear what students thought about different theories of political violence, and then had them defend their positions. Then circled back at the end of class to see if their opinion had changed and why.

2) Started class with a Socratic exercise about the biggest questions/puzzles raised by the readings.

4. The result is rising uncertainty and serious potential for crisis.

3. But weakness cuts both ways. Because Trump’s position is slipping, expect more pushback from judges and elected officials—especially after the recent electoral drubbing.

2. This combination of unpopularity + economic trouble creates incentives for escalation: adventurism abroad (Venezuela) and repression at home (prosecuting political opponents).

AKA "gambling for resurrection."

Trump is still the charismatic leader and driver of the MAGA movement.

Yet, ambitious Republican politicians are already jockeying to inherit his base.

History and academic research suggest that replacing a charismatic leader is hard, and that they’ll struggle to replicate his appeal.

4) Be wary of claims that these 2025 election results were mainly about persuasion or voters changing their minds.

Turnout was likely an import part of the story (see @electproject.bsky.social ->
bsky.app/profile/elec...)

3) Given his unpopularity, watch for “gambling for resurrection” behavior in foreign policy. He and his advisors may try to escalate or manufacture crises to distract or recover his political support. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamblin...

And at home, expect increased repression.

2) Coordinating a broad, pro-democracy movement is *hard*.

But these results matter. They signal to both the public and political elites that Trump is vulnerable and they help galvanize opposition. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Exactly, those two things will definitely influence each other. Public opinion is one of the few checks right now.

This previous paper had been my guide europepmc.org/article/ppr/...