Overall, I find no evidence that a shortened prison sentence in favor of electronic monitoring at home reduces incapacitation effects or increases the risk of recidivism.

The full study is available here: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The results show that for individuals who were unemployed before their prison sentence, this type of reentry measure can strengthen labor market attachment and reduce the risk of recidivism. Younger individuals also seem to benefit from the measure through improved labor market attachment.

To better isolate causal effects, a natural experiment was used in the form of a legislative change that, after the reform, allowed inmates to apply for converting the final part of their prison sentence to electronic monitoring at home. This created an experimental and a control group.

I completely agree that interpretations of the practical size of the incapacitation effect are highly subjective and that even the estimate for low-risk offenders might be perceived as 'high' by some. Either way, it's nice to see that the paper is being used! :)