The Shuram Excursion: It's Not Wholly Diagenesis. Probably.

(I have no actual conclusion from this.)

You sent me down a rabbit hole that I had to peel out of ASAP. I had never looked at the RCP SO2 numbers. Interesting that while they all end around the same place, 4.5 and 8.5 are most similar, while 6.0 is higher than either in the midcentury.

From Fig 2:

acp.copernicus.org/articles/15/...

One other point on this that just occurred to me: Much work on climate impacts has moved to using warming levels, rather than absolute timelines, following the CMIP6 hot models. So while the headline issue of using RCP8.5 is there, I imagine all of the MESACLIP runs will have useful information.

Yeah -- partially this is a consequence of setting these runs up *last* decade, so before wide awareness that RCP8.5 was overstated. They do have single runs of 2.6 and 4.5, but not 10 member ensembles like 6.0 and 8.5.

(The team computed the RCP6.0 stat for us -- the paper only has 8.5.)

The results have spurred NCAR to make sure its next climate model, CESM3, can run well at similar resolutions, and the authors hope other centers will follow suite -- a big ask.

(Other climate models have been run at even higher resolutions, BTW -- what's new here is creating a whole CMIP-ish run.)

They also seem to suggest the Bering Strait could play an important role in Arctic amplification, and show an Atlantic overturning circulation that seems to be more resilient than seen in coarser models.

There are other insights baked in there, too. They reflect the strange cooling seen in the eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean in recent decades, which other models have struggled to replicate -- and they suggest it could be a knock-on effect, in part, of the ozone hole.

By better reflecting the influence of ocean eddies and storm systems like hurricanes and atmospheric rivers, these runs could be a huge boon to those attempting to project climate change regionally, including its influence on extreme weather.

(The caveat being, of course, this is just one model.)

Looking forward to reading this and remembering/grieving my teenage days of IRC, Usenet, and arcane John Carmack .finger updates on OpenGL.

At least we still have RSS (though yes that was a later thing).

We covered it in Science earlier this year, though the story didn't catch on too much:

And our story last year, for background.

www.science.org/content/arti...

Another interesting cut: the surface warming of the ocean might actually reflect more ship noise than before, swamping the acidification signal and potentially making it quieter (for now).

pubs.aip.org/asa/jasa/art...

Yeah, when the story was a few hundred words longer it went through the flurry of work that Hester et al kicked off in 2008, and how it ultimately found the effect was real but a small threat to the soundscape. But editors etc