Interesting @theipaper.com story highlighting claims by the Food & Drink Federation that higher NI contributions and new food packaging levies are increasing prices.

But here's something they don't mention... what about climate change? 🧵 inews.co.uk/news/politic...

This is what farming with climate change looks like

After the second worst harvest on record in 2024, farmers in England have had record breaking rain in September, followed very little rain and record breaking sun & heat in March & April

Good for berries I guess, less good for lots of others!

The exec summary finishes with a warning that climate change & other environmental pressure drive volatility now & erode resilience for food production in the longer term

And the interaction with geopolitics exacerbates these environmental risks

This is the story since 2021

‘Whole system’ view

The report sees climate change risk as 'intensifying' over the longer term

But then flags that the combination of energy and climate shocks is driving up prices now, leading to higher costs for business and higher prices for the public

Theme 5: Consumer Confidence and Food Safety

This food price inflation has, unsurprisingly, led to lots of concern from the public

The report notes poorer households will be hit harder by food price inflation, as they spend more of their household income on food

Theme 4: Household Food Security

The report identifies a rise in household food insecurity, driven partly by food price inflation

In 2022 & 2023, energy costs and extreme weather added £605 to the average household food bill

eciu.net/media/press-...

Theme 3: Food Supply Chain Resilience

Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a gas price crisis that fed through to record fertiliser prices, revealing the inherent vulnerability of a food system dependent on volatile fossil fuels

Theme 2: UK Food Supply Sources

But then those 'localised' impacts seem to be quite pervasive

🌱 Cereals harvest hit in the UK in 2020 & 2024
🍅 Countries we import from "subject to their own climate-related challenges & sustainability risks"
🐝 Loss of nature a 'pressing risk'

A whistle stop tour of the exec summary...

Theme 1: Global Food Availability

The context section suggests climate impacts are still localised, but that it alongside nature loss etc pose significant risks to the ability to meet demand in the longer term

And yet, here we are

We are now at a point where the absence of these schemes isn’t just hitting environmental progress

It’s hitting farming incomes too in some of the most marginal farming landscapes

Farm incomes are only £23,500 in the uplands

Having failed to resource the development of this, Defra then instead bailed on it & pivoted to instead overhaul the existing Countryside Stewardship higher tier

In January, they said this would also be available now

Rather than make the SFI do something it’s not set up to do - targeted, complex management with advice - the intention was always to have a new higher-tier scheme sit above it

First, this was the ‘Local Nature Recovery’ scheme

In 2022 they said this would be up and running now

But there were no upland NCAs in the top 30 receiving the most from the SFI

Again, this makes sense - as a scheme it’s designed to fund simple, replicable measures on lowland farmland

Think hedgerows, flower margins and herbal leys

This was based on a breakdown of funding by National Character Area (NCA), provided by the Rural Payments Agency

Of the 30 NCAs that got the most funding from HLS, 12 are in the uplands (here in green)

This makes sense - the uplands hold perhaps the greatest potential for environmental gain

We looked at where money goes in two of Defra’s land management schemes

The Sustainable Farming Incentive & the legacy higher tier scheme, Higher Level Stewardship

Upland areas only get 8% of the SFI budget, against 15% of England’s area

But they get 42% of HLS funding

And we also write quite a lot of letters to the media when we think they or others haven’t quite got things right, or there’s a need for another perspective

Like this Times letter from the farm protests earlier in the year