Ghana has restructured much of its external debt but the latest IMF assessment says there is still a high risk of 'debt distress'

The IMF says Ghana will reach moderate risk by 2028. But external debt payments are right on the threshold - any shock will keep Ghana at high risk:

Sri Lanka's real public spending per person (not including interest payments) is only expected to reach 2015 levels in 2029.

And that assumes continued GDP growth and no major economic shocks.

In 2025 public spending is expected to be 9% less than a decade ago.

The IMF says Sri Lanka is still at high risk of being unable to pay its debt / need to restructure again

[The original restructuring was based on there being a 50:50 chance of another restructuring being needed]

Sri Lanka's external debt payments will remain extremely high for at least the next decade, averaging 22% of government revenue between 2024 and 2035.

That keeps Sri Lanka in the highest 20 countries for government external debt service, even AFTER 'debt relief'

IMF: Good news, Nigeria can keep paying its debt!
IMF: Bad news, food insecurity and poverty have risen

IMF don't say: Nigeria's public spending per person has fallen over 25% since 2015, and is projected to fall 50% by 2030

According to this report from the Lowy Institute, China has deferred most of Laos' debt payments since 2020. So the bulk of Laos' still huge external debt service is to commercial creditors
www.lowyinstitute.org/publications...

Hamilton Reserve Bank has blocked the restructuring of one of Sri Lanka's bonds and it is continuing to demand full payment in New York courts.

This is exactly why we need laws to ensure private lenders take part in debt restructuring

erlassjahr.de/en/news/sri-...

The IMF says Zambia has reached debt restructuring agreements with Chinese commercial lenders. But negotiations are ongoing with Western private lenders. That's now 9 months since the deal with bondholders, and 18 months since the deal with governments

www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

The UK government has refused to answer a simple question: how many loans have been disclosed under the IIF debt transparency principles in the last 18 months

The answer is 0

But the UK still claims it is a 'strong advocate' for transparency because it supports the useless principles

The IMF have just published documents showing that Ghana's debt restructuring breaks the IMF's own policies.

Debt relief is meant to reduce debt risk to 'moderate' with 'space to absorb shocks'.

But in Ghana, any shock at all will move Ghana back to high risk.

World Bank IDS database has this as the external debt owed - no idea if true though! [The World Bank debt is listed as IDA, but very small]

As well as concluding a major debt relief scheme is needed, Gill says debtors need greater legal powers over private creditors to make them take part in debt relief

As he points out, private finance is now a net cost on global south governments. Multilateral lenders are lending more than they are being repaid - which is just paying off private creditors

To get there, he first points out that the World Bank was among those pushing the billions to trillions narrative, that huge amount of private loans should be given to global south governments

World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill has written a Foreword to the Banks' International Debt report which cuts through the waffle on debt and outlines what is actually happening, and what is needed.

He concludes:

"How to fight the silent debt crisis engulfing the global south" by Former Vice-President of Nigeria Yemi Osibajo.

Yes, yes, yes to this - and it's not as hard as vested interests try to make out:

#CancelTheDebt