“Ultimately, the NHS needs to ensure that the right activity is being delivered for patients to complete their pathways, rather than simply delivering more activity.”

📗 Read @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich’s briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/why...

Patients on average have been receiving more hospital appointments and operations before leaving the NHS waiting list.

If the number of patients leaving the waiting list had matched this increase in hospital activity, NHS waiting lists would be over 1 million cases lower by now.

📊 Read @lukesibieta.bsky.social's report on falling pupil numbers across the UK: ifs.org.uk/publications...

“Policymakers will have to decide how to respond: will they look to make financial savings through employing fewer teachers or closing schools? Or will they protect education spending and deliver smaller class sizes?”

📗 Read the report here: ifs.org.uk/publications...

The number of primary schools in England has hardly changed at all since 2016.

This is not explained by a lower fall in pupil numbers in England: even in London, where primary school pupil numbers fell by 9%, school numbers have only fallen by 2% to date.

Primary pupil numbers have fallen by 10-20% since 2026 in many parts of inner London, by over 10% in some Scottish council areas, such as North Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire, and by 9-10% in parts of North Wales, such as Gwynedd and Wrexham.

The government has chosen to protect total schools spending in real terms up to 2029 in England: a real-terms rise in per-pupil funding. Maintaining per-pupil funding (allowing total funding to fall) would save money but likely requires falls in teacher numbers & school closures.

The falling numbers of children entering primary schools mainly reflect reduced fertility levels.

The ONS expects fertility to stabilise at about 1.4–1.5 in the future, but these forecasts have previously proved optimistic: pupil numbers could fall even further than predicted.

“With a £6 billion shortfall in funding currently projected for 2028–29, tough choices will be needed to reform the system, and/or to work out how to fill the funding gap.”

📗 Read the briefing, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, here: ifs.org.uk/articles/har...