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theifs.bsky.social
The Institute for Fiscal Studies
@theifs.bsky.social
11K followers 0 following 1.3K posts
Official account for Britain’s leading independent economic research institute. https://ifs.org.uk/
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theifs.bsky.social
“Ultimately, the NHS needs to ensure that the right activity is being delivered for patients to complete their pathways, rather than simply delivering more activity.”

📗 Read @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich’s briefing here: ifs.org.uk/articles/why...
Quote from IFS Research Economist Olly Harvey-Rich: "It is of course good news that hospital productivity has been rising. But so far, this has not resulted in materially lower waiting times for patients. That’s not because lots more patients are joining the waiting list, but instead because the average patient is having more appointments and operations before being discharged. Ultimately, the NHS needs to ensure that the right activity is being delivered for patients to complete their pathways, rather than simply delivering more activity."
December 9, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: Strong productivity growth and increasing funding has meant English hospitals have been delivering much more elective (pre-planned) care.

So why isn't the waiting list going down more quickly?

🧵 @maxwarner.bsky.social and Olly Harvey-Rich examine what's going on:
Chart shows annual increases in elective hospital activity and discharges from the waiting list. Title states: "Hospital productivity growth is leading to large increases in elective activity, but much slower progress on cutting waiting lists."
December 9, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
Know any economics students considering a career in economics research?

We're offering six-to-eight week placements at IFS in Summer 2026 as part of our Summer Student scheme.

📊 Apply here by 11pm, Friday 16 Jan 2026: app.beapplied.com/apply/xkr9pu...
December 7, 2025 at 1:15 PM
theifs.bsky.social
📈 #IFSSatStat: The number of children in the UK is expected to decline by about 7% or 800,000 between 2025 and 2035.

These declines are expected to be fastest in Scotland (8%), Wales (10%) and Northern Ireland (15%).
December 6, 2025 at 9:00 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW PODCAST: Tax changes in the Budget

Our new IFS Zooms In episode sees @helenmiller.bsky.social @benzaranko.bsky.social and Stuart Adam examine the tax changes buried in the detail of last week's Budget, from electric vehicles to tourist tax.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/tax...
December 5, 2025 at 2:17 PM
theifs.bsky.social
“Policymakers will have to decide how to respond: will they look to make financial savings through employing fewer teachers or closing schools? Or will they protect education spending and deliver smaller class sizes?”

📗 Read the report here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Quote from IFS Research Fellow Luke Sibieta: "Policymakers will have to decide how to respond – will they look to make financial savings through employing fewer teachers or closing schools? Or will they protect education spending and deliver smaller class sizes? While closing a school can be problematic for local communities, maintaining school numbers as they are might not be the best thing for pupils either. With a dramatic fall in pupil numbers, some schools might struggle to offer a full breadth of curriculum options."
December 5, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
The number of primary schools in England has hardly changed at all since 2016.

This is not explained by a lower fall in pupil numbers in England: even in London, where primary school pupil numbers fell by 9%, school numbers have only fallen by 2% to date.
Chart shows the changes in primary school pupil, school, teacher and class numbers across the UK: January 2016 to January 2025. Title states: "Primary school closures are more common in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland."
December 5, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
Primary pupil numbers have fallen by 10-20% since 2026 in many parts of inner London, by over 10% in some Scottish council areas, such as North Ayrshire and West Dunbartonshire, and by 9-10% in parts of North Wales, such as Gwynedd and Wrexham.
Map shows change in primary school pupil numbers by local authority across Great Britain between 2015–16 and 2024–25. Title states: "Primary school pupil numbers are falling especially quickly in Wales, Scotland and London."
December 5, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
The falling numbers of children entering primary schools mainly reflect reduced fertility levels.

The ONS expects fertility to stabilise at about 1.4–1.5 in the future, but these forecasts have previously proved optimistic: pupil numbers could fall even further than predicted.
Chart shows total fertility rate in the UK under current and historical forecasts. Title states: "The UK’s total fertility rate has fallen from 1.9 babies per woman in 2010 to 1.4 by 2024, well below the replacement rate of around 2.1."
December 5, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: The number of children in the UK is expected to decline by about 7% or 800,000 between 2025 and 2035.

This leaves policymakers with a choice: deliver savings or increase school funding per pupil?

🧵 @lukesibieta.bsky.social's report, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, explains:
Chart shows actual and projected number of children aged 0–15 across the four nations of the UK over time, relative to level in 2010. Title states: "The number of children aged under 16 in the UK is forecast to fall by 800,000 between now and 2035."
December 5, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
“With a £6 billion shortfall in funding currently projected for 2028–29, tough choices will be needed to reform the system, and/or to work out how to fill the funding gap.”

📗 Read the briefing, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org, here: ifs.org.uk/articles/har...
Quote from IFS Research Economist Darcey Snape: "We don’t know much more than we did before the Budget about the plan for dealing with these challenges. While central government will ‘assume full responsibility’ for funding SEND provision from 2028-29, it’s not actually clear what this will mean in practice. And with a £6 billion shortfall in funding currently projected for that year, tough choices will be needed to reform the system, and/or to work out how to fill the funding gap. "
December 2, 2025 at 10:56 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: The hardest questions for SEND are still to be answered.

@ckfarquharson.bsky.social, Kate Ogden, David Phillips, @lukesibieta.bsky.social and Darcey Snape’s briefing explains how the #Budget2025 will affect SEND spending and the options for councils' SEND-related deficits ⬇️
December 2, 2025 at 10:56 AM
theifs.bsky.social
“Faced with cognitive decline and complex finances, many are likely to find it difficult to manage their finances. The good news is these effects tend to emerge slowly, [giving] a window to put plans in place.“

📗 Read the report here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
Quote from IFS Senior Research Economist Heidi Karjalainen: "Making financial decisions in retirement is increasingly complicated. Faced with cognitive decline and complex finances, many are likely to find it difficult to manage their finances. The good news is that, although people facing cognitive decline generally see declines in their financial wealth, these effects tend to emerge slowly. This should give individuals, families, pension providers and policymakers a window to put plans in place to protect the finances of older people."
December 2, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: Older people who experience cognitive decline have around £30,000 lower financial wealth than those who do not around eight to ten years after first recording low cognitive function.

Read @heidikarj.bsky.social's new report, funded by the IFS Retirement Saving Consortium ⬇️
Chart shows association between experiencing low cognition score for the first time and change in financial wealth (in 2024 prices), by years since first having low cognition. Title states: "Older people who experience cognitive decline see gradual falls in their financial wealth later on."
December 2, 2025 at 8:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
'The OBR has made Rachel Reeves very lucky in saying we think it [higher tax receipts] are going to come to the rescue in coming years'

@helenmiller.bsky.social explains how tax revenues made Rachel Reeves' job easier this Budget in our podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 30, 2025 at 10:01 AM
theifs.bsky.social
'I don't think we can afford to have budgets that look like this in some sense. The growth problem is so bad.'

@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social & @ckfarquharson.bsky.social discuss the Budget and its implications for growth in our podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM
theifs.bsky.social
📊 #IFSSatStat: Next year households will see income gains from Budget reforms including a fuel duty cut relative to existing plans and removing the two-child limit.

The hit from big tax rises is set to kick in later, particularly for middle and higher-income households.
Chart shows distributional impact of Budget 2025 reforms by household income decile, in 2026–27 and 2030–31. Title states: "Budget 2025 measures will modestly increase household incomes next year, but tax rises will hit middle and higher incomes further down the line."
November 29, 2025 at 9:15 AM
theifs.bsky.social
'Real household disposable income is going to grow about 0.4% annually this parliament. That is the second worst growth in living standards we've had since the late 1970s.'

@ckfarquharson.bsky.social discusses living standards in our #Budget2025 podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 28, 2025 at 3:01 PM
theifs.bsky.social
'The manifesto said no increase in National Insurance. This is an increase in National Insurance.'

@helenmiller.bsky.social and @benzaranko.bsky.social discuss whether the Budget's tax changes are a breach of Labour's manifesto pledge in our new podcast.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 28, 2025 at 1:15 PM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained

@helenmiller.bsky.social, @benzaranko.bsky.social and @ckfarquharson.bsky.social break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode.

🎧 Listen here: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 4:19 PM
theifs.bsky.social
NEW: There is a due to be a £6 billion gap between SEND funding and spending in 2028-29, on the basis of OBR forecasts.

📗@lukesibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: ifs.org.uk/articles/aut...
November 27, 2025 at 1:27 PM
theifs.bsky.social
Real household disposable income is set to grow by just 0.4% per year over this parliament, driven by low productivity growth and tax rises.
November 27, 2025 at 11:27 AM
theifs.bsky.social
Next year households will see gains from additional energy bill support and the effects of removing the two-child limit.

But by 2029–30, the big tax rises will have kicked in, particularly hitting middle and higher-income households.
November 27, 2025 at 11:25 AM
theifs.bsky.social
The decision to scrap the two-child limit means increasing benefits for low-income families with three or more children, which the government estimates will reduce relative child poverty by 450,000.
November 27, 2025 at 11:23 AM
theifs.bsky.social
By 2029–30, it's expected that a quarter of employees will pay higher or additional rate income tax.
November 27, 2025 at 11:21 AM