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surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Surplus Cornbread
@surpluscornbread.bsky.social
630 followers 480 following 3.1K posts
Your friendly neighborhood tankie
Pronouns He/Him/Dumbass
President Xi, fire the nukes when ready
Posts Replies Media Videos
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Well Hegseth's obviously got to get prosecuted but why would a US admiral not notice this very obvious point?

*checks admiral Frank Bradley's wikipedia*

Ooooooooohhhhh. Yeah this all makes sense.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_M...
Wikipedia excerpt listing "Commands": U.S. Special Operations Command Joint Special Operations Command Special Operations Command Central SEAL Team Six
December 2, 2025 at 12:36 AM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
I wish we could just go back to calling this "machine learning". Because that's what this was: an impressive achievement for machine learning techniques that Google has a long history of using. The "AI" term is meant to evoke newer methodologies that aspire to make Machine God which wasn't this.
Artificial intelligence has been used in weather forecast models for some time. Google's DeepMind, though, marks a significant step forward, one that suggests AI may soon overtake the physics-based models meteorologists have long relied on. AI models like Google's DeepMind, on the other hand, don't know anything about physics but focus instead on history. "They have been developed to go back and look at historical records and tease out patterns and relationships about what has happened in the past in very subtle ways that a person could not extract on their own," Franklin says.
November 30, 2025 at 2:13 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Divorce in the US is normal in all racial groups in the US with a partial exception of Asian Americans who have a very low rate compared to everyone else. I'm not sure what the point of talking about "white culture" is in this discussion.

www.forbes.com/advisor/lega...
Divorce Rates by Race Divorce rates also vary by race. Many factors could explain these discrepancies, including differing cultural norms surrounding the institution of marriage as well as systemic biases that undermine family structures in certain communities. Here’s what the data shows about both divorce and marriage rates by ethnicity. The divorce rate for white couples is 15.1%. The marriage rate among these couples is 32.1%. The divorce rate for Black couples is 30.8%, and the marriage rate is 17.3% The divorce rate for Latino couples is 18.5%, and the marriage rate is 33.2% Asian Americans have the highest percentage of marriage, with 65% married. They also have the lowest percentage of divorce at 4%. Nearly 39% of the American Indian/Alaska Native population is currently married (excluding couples who are separated). The same percentage has never been married, and approximately 13% are divorced.
November 24, 2025 at 10:32 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Briefly in San FranSICKo and just witnessed what in Atlanta counts as war crimes against cars
November 18, 2025 at 7:28 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
This chart from a paper that made the rounds a while back illustrates exactly that problem. right voters have a wide range of different answers, consistent with basically randomly guessing, while left voters cluster consistent with having more correct answers:
Title: "There is more diversity of thought on the political Right than on the political Left." Sub-header: "Although they pride themselves on open-mindedness, liberal thinking actually coalesces around a very narrow set of opinion, whereas the Right diverges widely." A graph with blue responses tightly clustered on the left with red responses widely separated on the right. Figure 2: "Extracted attitude network. (a) A visual representation of extracted attitude network revealing a distribution of forty attitudes into two clusters. Note: Dark Blue = Strong Disagreement; Pale Blue = Moderate Disagreement; Grey = Neutral; Orange = Moderate Agreement; Red = Strong Agreement (b) Two attitude clusters depicting latent Democrat (blue) and Republican (red) belief-systems.
November 15, 2025 at 2:29 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
“He wants to talk to you but his wife won’t let him,” Melanie replied. “He loves you.” Fifteen seconds later, she added, “he says hi.” Bill and Melinda French Gates finalized their divorce years later in 2021; Melinda went on to say that their split was due in part to Bill’s involvement with Epstein. A representative for her did not reply to a request for comment. Fred Armisen in a meme as Venezuelan president saying "Straight to jail"
November 13, 2025 at 8:57 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Remember that time Nate Silver thought Eric Adams could be president after Biden?

Pepperidge Farms remembers
Tweet from @NateSilver538 from 5:56 PM Jan 3, 2022 "It's probably foolish to think a NYC mayor will successfully translate into being a national political figure, but I still think Eric Adams would be in my top 5 for "who will be the next Democratic presidential nominee after Joe Biden?"."
November 5, 2025 at 11:27 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
It's official!
Zohran Mamdani with 1,006,242 votes and 50.3% of the vote
November 5, 2025 at 3:07 AM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
This man is gonna be the first NYC mayor with a million votes since John Lindsay in 69!
NYTimes vote count, with 80% of 1.8 million votes in Mamdani has 913,885 and 50.6% of the vote.
November 5, 2025 at 2:45 AM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Now I'm just rooting for him keeping over 50%. Though Republicans rat fucked Sliwa lmfao!
Vote totals NYC mayors race with 75% of the vote in. Mamdani leads with 50.4%
November 5, 2025 at 2:40 AM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Every borough but Staten Island (aka every part of NYC that is actually a city) going big for Mamdani in the early/mail-in vote:
November 5, 2025 at 2:06 AM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Screw you Georgia Power! Stop raising my bills to let Grok produce Hitler quotes
Georgia Public Service Commissioner 2 Alicia Johnson (D) is projected to win by DecisionDeskHQ.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:51 AM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
A "housing recession" in the form of lowering prices would actually be a good thing. But while specific markets have had falls, on a national level all that's actually happened since rates were increased is reducing the rate of increase in prices, while buying/selling volume has fallen.
FRED S&P CoreLogic Cas-eShiller U.S. National Home Price Index chart from 2015 to 2025. The graph has increased from below 180 to about 330 with the fastest growth between 2020 and 2022 and slower growth since 2022 when rates increased.
November 2, 2025 at 6:47 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Then there's a whole section about "Venezuela won't be Haiti/Iraq/Libya" and its obviously insane. He dismisses Haiti due to resource difference, he dismisses Iraq and Libya due to no "sectarianism" (even though Libya is 94% Sunni, it wasn't a sectarian civil war). This is pure fantasy.
It’s not going to become Haiti because they have a ton of natural resources and they’ll be able to pay for their own development. They have an educated population, some of whom will definitely come back, especially the middle and upper middle class. There’s also a Venezuelan patriotic ethos that exists in the country. It is the land of Bolivar. Even Maria Corina Machado and Maduro agree on two things, at least. The best arepas on the planet come from Venezuela, not Colombia And the second is that the Essequibo is part of Venezuela. They both agree on that point. I disagree with them on that. I agree on the arepas, I disagree on the Essequibo. There’s not going to be sectarian violence à la Iraq or Libya. So you have resources, you have an educated population. It’s not to say that there won’t be problems. You have FARC-D, ELN, Tren de Aragua, and any other number of criminal groups operating inside the country. I used to call Maduro the mayor of Fuerte Tiuna, the military base that he lives on, because he doesn’t control the entirety of the country. You have a lot of criminality and illegality happening all over the place. Those actors are going to have to be dealt with. So the smart play is not de-Baathification. Let’s learn a lesson from Iraq here. People who committed human rights abuses, tortured or murdered people, they’re not going to be able to be rehabilitated. But certainly there should be room for captains, majors, lieutenant colonels in the military to keep their jobs, to pledge an oath to the constitution and to help provide for stability and security. So if you got rid of all of them, you’d have a mess. It wouldn’t be Haiti, it wouldn’t be Iraq, it wouldn’t be Libya, but you would have a mess.
November 1, 2025 at 4:35 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
In these 2 sections we get an obvious tell. In the first, the ex-ambassador is being clear that sanctions cause shortages of food and medicine that Venezuela has "learned to live with." And in the second, that Venezuelans have fled to "live a better life". Conclusion: sanctions caused mass migration
*bold question*Why do those actions put more pressure on Venezuelan elites, versus other measures like sanctions?*end bold* It’s the threat of force. Sanctions certainly put pressure on the regime, but they’ve been under sanctions for so long that they’ve certainly learned to live with the sanctions. And the ghost ships carrying oil to China, laundering through Malaysia, and the role of Iran, Cuba, Russia, China and Venezuela. Inside of the regime, *highlight*it doesn’t really matter to them if people go hungry, if there’s not enough medicine.*end highlight* This isn’t something that they’ve concerned themselves with. Because their existence is what concerns themselves. *highlight*So they’ve learned to live with sanctions over time.*end highlight* Now this is the real possibility of use of force. That is intended, I’m certain, to rattle those closest to Maduro, encourage them to make the decision to make a change within the government. The decision to go after Venezuela is not just one of drugs, but it’s also one of hemispheric stability. Because you have criminality happening in Venezuela and from Venezuela, *highlight*in addition to nearly nine million immigrants that have fled the country seeking a better life, that in and of itself is destabilizing.*end highlight* Not just to the United States. If you look at a country like Aruba, it’s something like 10 or 15 percent of the people that live there are actually from Venezuela. It’s a small number globally, but an astonishing statistic when you think about the percentages.
November 1, 2025 at 4:35 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
The whiny entitlement of the upper-middle income brackets of the US knows no limits. Close to 20% of American households are millionaires now and Bloomberg has the nerve to call them "cash strapped" when their own analysis shows them having over 100k in liquid assets on the low end!
headline from Bloomberg: "America is Minting Lots of Cash-Strapped Millionaires" Bloomberg chart titled "Less-Wealthy Millionaires Have More in Illiquid Assets: Share of wealth held in each asset type by household's new worth, 2023 Categories on the y-axis from top to bottom are Other, Business, Liquid Assets, Retirement, Housing Categories on the x-axis are have $1M-$2M 12M households, have $2M-$5M 8.5M households, have $5M+ 3.5M households Liquid assets in the least wealthy category are 17% of wealth or $170,000 for a household with $1M in assets. Liquid assets refer to bank accounts as well as stocks, mutual funds and bonds that can be readily sold. Source: US Census Bureau SIPP
October 21, 2025 at 6:42 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Fire this guy immediately.

Bad enough to try and use LLMs to make real world medical decisions for people, absolutely INSANE to think that an acceptable accuracy rate is low enough to count as an F in any school grade!
The main limitation of this testing, Ahmad said, is that he can only verify the accuracy of his models if patients survive and can later confirm that the model made the right choice. But this is just the first step, he said. The accuracy testing could then expand to other facilities in the network, with the aim of developing AI surrogates that can accurately predict patient preferences about “two-thirds” of the time.
October 21, 2025 at 12:00 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
But none of these guys could handle the thieves grindset:
Four perpetrators appear to have been involved in the theft, who were unarmed, but threatened the guards with the angle grinders, Paris Prosecutor Laure Beccuau said.
October 20, 2025 at 3:47 AM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Well increasingly the answer appears to be giant office complexes in Cambodia and Myanmar, typically along the border. You can see them on Google Earth. Below is one in Chrey Thum Cambodia, helpfully listed as a "campground". You know a campground with multistory buildings and walls with barbed wire
Google earth photo of a Cambodian town near the Bassac River. A series of large buildings have a Google label of "Campground" A google street view of the southern end of the complex showing the multi-story buildings behind a concrete wall topped with barbed wire.
October 17, 2025 at 11:55 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
It is amazing how often online this is the most correct response possible:
tweet from @bongfrotter "This would make so much sense if you were fucking stupid"
October 17, 2025 at 10:24 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
@mugrimm.bsky.social

The science is getting stronger in the "social media is rotting kids brains" direction. And the discussion part of the study is interesting. They've got a guess this is because social media distracts from educational stuff.
Discussion This analysis found that both low and high increases in social media use throughout early adolescence were significantly associated with lower performance in specific aspects of cognitive function, supporting a prior finding that greater screen time was negatively but weakly associated with adolescent cognitive performance.5 Overall, the differences in mean scores were small relative to the NIH Toolbox standard deviation of 15. *highlighted*Previous literature has hypothesized that social media use replacing more educational activities or schoolwork may explain the association between social media use and lower cognitive performance.6 The specific associations between increasing social media use and poorer performance on the ORRT and PVT, which tests stored language knowledge, support this hypothesis.*end highlighted* The finding that even low levels of early adolescent social media exposure were linked to poorer cognitive performance may suggest support for stricter age restrictions. Limitations of this study include self-reported social media data, potential residual confounding, and an observational study design that precludes inferring that social media trajectories cause worse cognitive performance. Future studies should examine how specific social media platforms and content relate to cognitive outcomes.
October 15, 2025 at 9:55 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
She even dedicated her prize win to Trump!
October 10, 2025 at 2:19 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Nah, Norway basically folded on this. Machado is a Trump ally who supports his policies. Invasion of Venezuela to help a "peace prize winner" incoming...
www.bbc.com/news/live/c1...
October 10, 2025 at 12:34 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Man some folks are really weird. Guy blocked me when I asked what his problem was, so I'm going to assume he's a Zionist.
@surpluscornbread.bsky.social "I am thrilled for the people of Gaza that they will get at least a temporary reprieve. But I also don't trust Trump and Israel to keep the ceasefire. Any break is better than none and the longer it lasts the better, but I fully expect the Israelis to break their agreement and Trump to support them." @jayweixelbaum.bsky.social "why does your opinion matter"
October 8, 2025 at 11:55 PM
surpluscornbread.bsky.social
Slight nuance in the article: he's not exactly implying if this was universal it'd kill the industry, just the UK would be "left behind". Granted, the UK is already not important in the big LLM race (which is almost all US companies with a few Chinese ones). So really, who cares? Make the rule.
“I just don’t know how you go around, asking everyone first. I just don’t see how that would work,” Clegg said. “And by the way if you did it in Britain and no one else did it, you would basically kill the AI industry in this country overnight.”
October 8, 2025 at 10:18 PM