Stefan Angrick
@stefanangrick.bsky.social
Macro economics, macro finance, central banking. Reposts ≠ endorsements. Views my own.
Our Moody's Analytics webinar on developed Asia's outlook is now live. The early 2025 lift from pre-tariff exports and the AI boom has started to fade. Can domestic demand take over? events.moodys.com/mc78452-wbn-... 1/2
Developed Asia Economic Outlook Webinar: Shifting Gears
Asia’s developed markets entered 2025 in stronger shape than anticipated, buoyed by a front-lo...
events.moodys.com
November 30, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Our Moody's Analytics webinar on developed Asia's outlook is now live. The early 2025 lift from pre-tariff exports and the AI boom has started to fade. Can domestic demand take over? events.moodys.com/mc78452-wbn-... 1/2
Reposted by Stefan Angrick
China is making trade impossible on.ft.com/3XOAr8n | opinion
China is making trade impossible
Europe has nothing to offer and difficult decisions to make
on.ft.com
November 26, 2025 at 5:07 AM
China is making trade impossible on.ft.com/3XOAr8n | opinion
New IMF paper shows that during the 2022 supply-driven inflation surge, inflation-targeting central banks did not deliver better outcomes than non-targeting peers, even though they tightened more aggressively. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
Navigating the 2022 Inflation Surge
This paper examines the effectiveness of inflation targeting (IT) frameworks during the global inflation surge of 2022, a shock primarily driven by large adverse supply side disruptions following the ...
www.imf.org
November 8, 2025 at 2:18 AM
New IMF paper shows that during the 2022 supply-driven inflation surge, inflation-targeting central banks did not deliver better outcomes than non-targeting peers, even though they tightened more aggressively. www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
Reposted by Stefan Angrick
Are we worrying too much about public debt? on.ft.com/4o55F6V | opinion
Are we worrying too much about public debt?
Aggregate numbers — public or private — are not what should keep you up at night
on.ft.com
October 23, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Are we worrying too much about public debt? on.ft.com/4o55F6V | opinion
Had a great chat with Martin Soong at @cnbc.com about Japan's presumptive new PM Takaichi Sanae. Markets may be bracing for big shifts, but I think the changes will be far more modest. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
Takaichi's team picks suggest she might not roll out as big a fiscal boost for Japan: Economist
Stefan Angrick of Moody's Analytics says the newly elected LDP President Takaichi has dialed back her rhetoric on big fiscal spending and tax cuts. He notes however that fiscal spending will be a posi...
www.cnbc.com
October 12, 2025 at 12:39 AM
Had a great chat with Martin Soong at @cnbc.com about Japan's presumptive new PM Takaichi Sanae. Markets may be bracing for big shifts, but I think the changes will be far more modest. www.cnbc.com/video/2025/1...
About a week ago, the BoJ said it will start selling ETFs and J-REITs. Markets sold off at first but quickly calmed. ETF buying was always one of the BoJ's more contentious policies--but in hindsight, it proved surprisingly successful.
September 28, 2025 at 2:30 AM
About a week ago, the BoJ said it will start selling ETFs and J-REITs. Markets sold off at first but quickly calmed. ETF buying was always one of the BoJ's more contentious policies--but in hindsight, it proved surprisingly successful.
Ishiba's resignation after less than a year in office raises big questions for Japan and its economy. Many thanks to RTHK's Carolyn Wright for the interview. podcasts.apple.com/hk/podcast/s...
Stefan Angrick - What Next for Japan?
Podcast 單集 · The Close · 10/09/2025 · 9 分鐘
podcasts.apple.com
September 10, 2025 at 10:46 PM
Ishiba's resignation after less than a year in office raises big questions for Japan and its economy. Many thanks to RTHK's Carolyn Wright for the interview. podcasts.apple.com/hk/podcast/s...
Fantastic piece by @urbandirt.bsky.social on how Tokyo became an unexpected haven for China's middle class. www.ft.com/content/ab9b...
How Tokyo became an unexpected haven for China’s middle class
An aspirational generation of Chinese arrivals are beginning to shape Japan’s demographic, social and perhaps even political destiny
www.ft.com
September 6, 2025 at 8:17 AM
Fantastic piece by @urbandirt.bsky.social on how Tokyo became an unexpected haven for China's middle class. www.ft.com/content/ab9b...
Reposted by Stefan Angrick
Here's a chart-heavy 1500 words about FX hedging mechanics that shows "the FT is really dumbing down for its readers", according to someone in the comments.
on.ft.com/45SpYOk
on.ft.com/45SpYOk
When does it pay to hedge FX?
[FREE TO READ] The trade that explains (almost) everything
on.ft.com
September 5, 2025 at 7:09 AM
Here's a chart-heavy 1500 words about FX hedging mechanics that shows "the FT is really dumbing down for its readers", according to someone in the comments.
on.ft.com/45SpYOk
on.ft.com/45SpYOk
Reposted by Stefan Angrick
Very pleased that our local projections dif-in-dif paper is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Joint with @dgirardi.bsky.social, Jorda, and Taylor.
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
July 20, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Very pleased that our local projections dif-in-dif paper is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Joint with @dgirardi.bsky.social, Jorda, and Taylor.
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).
🧵
Sharp analysis by @generaltheorist.bsky.social @exantedata.bsky.social: "Since the euro was formed at the turn of the millennium, one constant theme has been the unnecessary tightness of German fiscal policy—and therefore shortage of reserve asset supply from the heart of the single currency." 1/2
July 4, 2025 at 4:56 AM
Sharp analysis by @generaltheorist.bsky.social @exantedata.bsky.social: "Since the euro was formed at the turn of the millennium, one constant theme has been the unnecessary tightness of German fiscal policy—and therefore shortage of reserve asset supply from the heart of the single currency." 1/2
As global trade slows and supply chains fragment, AI is powering ahead. We leveraged a large language model to classify more than 400,000 global cross-border investment projects to pinpoint where capital is flowing, and why.
June 22, 2025 at 12:18 AM
As global trade slows and supply chains fragment, AI is powering ahead. We leveraged a large language model to classify more than 400,000 global cross-border investment projects to pinpoint where capital is flowing, and why.
Great piece by Harry Dempsey and @davidkeo.bsky.social on the low-profile Japanese firms the world can't do without.
June 20, 2025 at 12:23 PM
Great piece by Harry Dempsey and @davidkeo.bsky.social on the low-profile Japanese firms the world can't do without.
Reposted by Stefan Angrick
Swiss central bank cuts rates to zero https://on.ft.com/4kgLMqR
Swiss central bank cuts interest rates to zero
Surge in value of Swiss franc amid US-driven trade war and lagging inflation has complicated policymaking
on.ft.com
June 19, 2025 at 11:23 AM
Swiss central bank cuts rates to zero https://on.ft.com/4kgLMqR
Now seems like a good time to share this: research.stlouisfed.org/publications...
How Do Imports Affect GDP?
The current textbook treatment of how international trade is measured as part of GDP can lead people to misunderstand the role trade plays in the economy.
research.stlouisfed.org
April 30, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Now seems like a good time to share this: research.stlouisfed.org/publications...
Reposted by Stefan Angrick
How the Treasury market got hooked on hedge fund leverage
https://www.ft.com/content/0bf5bcc2-6ff1-4309-afbf-f470250a4721
https://www.ft.com/content/0bf5bcc2-6ff1-4309-afbf-f470250a4721
How the Treasury market got hooked on hedge fund leverage
Recent turbulence was partly the result of trading strategies using derivatives. But the same investors are increasingly important buyers of US government debt
www.ft.com
April 25, 2025 at 4:07 AM
How the Treasury market got hooked on hedge fund leverage
https://www.ft.com/content/0bf5bcc2-6ff1-4309-afbf-f470250a4721
https://www.ft.com/content/0bf5bcc2-6ff1-4309-afbf-f470250a4721
Reposted by Stefan Angrick
Swiss 2-year government bonds trading at negative yields again
April 22, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Swiss 2-year government bonds trading at negative yields again
U.S. Treasuries sold off in early April, sending yields surging and fuelling speculation about sales by Japanese, Chinese, and European investors. /1
April 20, 2025 at 11:42 AM
U.S. Treasuries sold off in early April, sending yields surging and fuelling speculation about sales by Japanese, Chinese, and European investors. /1