Quite a 24 hours in Canadian Politics, two Conservatives out (one to the Liberals, one gone altogether), a new Budget on the table, and my debut on Power & Politics! Nothing beats watching your research come to life.

Full interview here: gem.cbc.ca/power-politics

#cdnpoli

🚨NEW PAPER: Do legislators trade favours?

My latest with Donald Green uses a natural lottery in the Canadian Parliament to test whether MPs return favours when others support their proposals.

Our findings may surprise you.👇

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

FINDING #2: Party matters more than person

Incumbency advantage:
Liberals pre-1972: +16 pts
Conservatives pre-1972: +8 pts (not significant)
Post-1972: Both parties? Advantage vanishes.

Using data from 1867 to 2021, and a RDD, I estimate the causal impact of incumbency on electoral success.

FINDING #1: The incumbency advantage shrank dramatically.

✅ Before 1972: Incumbents had a 15-point edge.
❌ After 1972: Just 2 points, and no longer significant.

🚨NEW PAPER: Do incumbents really have an edge in elections?

Research says yes. But what happens when party labels are added to the ballot?

A natural experiment from Canadian elections tells an interesting story👇🧵

🚨 NEW PAPER 🚨 with Charles Crabtree & André Blais "Do Voters Punish Women Politicians More?"

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

🚨Are feminine traits a liability in elections? My latest with André Blais at Acta Politica is now online!

Ever wonder whether snap elections backfire? In my latest with Marco M. Aviña & @rdassonneville.bsky.social we study this question in the Canadian context. Now out at the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Really excited to share my latest with André Blais now out at Electoral Studies on "Are women election averse?"

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

@uoft.bsky.social