Seb Tallents
@sebtallents.bsky.social
Former physicist, relapsed public servant, recovering management consultant. Currently working in NHS England on digital & technology standards.
Uh, they never had access to the loans. Only the MS could borrow money. The failure of the deal means UK defence firms can't bid for more than 35% of the value of any purchase an EU MS makes using the loans.
November 28, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Uh, they never had access to the loans. Only the MS could borrow money. The failure of the deal means UK defence firms can't bid for more than 35% of the value of any purchase an EU MS makes using the loans.
It's the first time I've seen the idea that one country or block would demand a budget contribution like this. We can, after all, just subsidise our defence firms directly.
November 28, 2025 at 4:35 PM
It's the first time I've seen the idea that one country or block would demand a budget contribution like this. We can, after all, just subsidise our defence firms directly.
It's one thing to subsidise e.g. a data-centre getting built, but trade agreements normally prohibit excluding foreign owned companies bidding, or use of foreign materials. Defence is normally exempted but within NATO members have generally committed not to do this kind of thing
November 28, 2025 at 4:35 PM
It's one thing to subsidise e.g. a data-centre getting built, but trade agreements normally prohibit excluding foreign owned companies bidding, or use of foreign materials. Defence is normally exempted but within NATO members have generally committed not to do this kind of thing
The entire principle is dodgy in the first place.
November 28, 2025 at 2:19 PM
The entire principle is dodgy in the first place.
Well that depends.
I don't think the right answer would be for the UK taxpayer to give 2bn to the EU on the hope that somehow that would produce > 2bn of spillover benefits.
Do we start demanding an upfront fee from EUMS for any debt financed UK public contract with > 35% spent outside the UK?
I don't think the right answer would be for the UK taxpayer to give 2bn to the EU on the hope that somehow that would produce > 2bn of spillover benefits.
Do we start demanding an upfront fee from EUMS for any debt financed UK public contract with > 35% spent outside the UK?
November 28, 2025 at 2:18 PM
Well that depends.
I don't think the right answer would be for the UK taxpayer to give 2bn to the EU on the hope that somehow that would produce > 2bn of spillover benefits.
Do we start demanding an upfront fee from EUMS for any debt financed UK public contract with > 35% spent outside the UK?
I don't think the right answer would be for the UK taxpayer to give 2bn to the EU on the hope that somehow that would produce > 2bn of spillover benefits.
Do we start demanding an upfront fee from EUMS for any debt financed UK public contract with > 35% spent outside the UK?
As for the pie argument, the same logic applies of course. UK could start limiting EU supply chains to 30% of any contract value (except with dispensation etc etc) on precisely the same grounds. That's why through NATO members have generally committed not to do this sort of thing.
November 28, 2025 at 12:50 PM
As for the pie argument, the same logic applies of course. UK could start limiting EU supply chains to 30% of any contract value (except with dispensation etc etc) on precisely the same grounds. That's why through NATO members have generally committed not to do this sort of thing.
With respect to the US, perhaps.
But the reality is you can't defend Europe against Russia purely from a geographical perspective without Turkey & UK; so whatever the attractions of sovereign capabilities, ultimately the boundary of what must be acceptable interdependencies has to include them.
But the reality is you can't defend Europe against Russia purely from a geographical perspective without Turkey & UK; so whatever the attractions of sovereign capabilities, ultimately the boundary of what must be acceptable interdependencies has to include them.
November 28, 2025 at 12:48 PM
With respect to the US, perhaps.
But the reality is you can't defend Europe against Russia purely from a geographical perspective without Turkey & UK; so whatever the attractions of sovereign capabilities, ultimately the boundary of what must be acceptable interdependencies has to include them.
But the reality is you can't defend Europe against Russia purely from a geographical perspective without Turkey & UK; so whatever the attractions of sovereign capabilities, ultimately the boundary of what must be acceptable interdependencies has to include them.
It's basically risks sending unintended message from EU MS to non-EU MS that the SM is the boundary of collective defence agreements.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 PM
It's basically risks sending unintended message from EU MS to non-EU MS that the SM is the boundary of collective defence agreements.
They want the Germans to buy French arms.
Honestly it is completely ridiculous. If we can't trust each-others supply chains in conflict with Russia (which is the implication of the French sovereign capability argument) then obviously we can't trust eachother to actually fight together.
Madness.
Honestly it is completely ridiculous. If we can't trust each-others supply chains in conflict with Russia (which is the implication of the French sovereign capability argument) then obviously we can't trust eachother to actually fight together.
Madness.
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 PM
They want the Germans to buy French arms.
Honestly it is completely ridiculous. If we can't trust each-others supply chains in conflict with Russia (which is the implication of the French sovereign capability argument) then obviously we can't trust eachother to actually fight together.
Madness.
Honestly it is completely ridiculous. If we can't trust each-others supply chains in conflict with Russia (which is the implication of the French sovereign capability argument) then obviously we can't trust eachother to actually fight together.
Madness.
The EU is rich enough to pay for its own arms without demanding the UK pay for its own rearmament and the EUs.
November 28, 2025 at 12:19 PM
The EU is rich enough to pay for its own arms without demanding the UK pay for its own rearmament and the EUs.
When you boil it down, it's just naked protectionism.
November 28, 2025 at 11:55 AM
When you boil it down, it's just naked protectionism.
Thing is though, why should *any* country - on behalf of their taxpayer - insist on a similar fee or levy on taxpayers money spent on foreign work to recoup some of the economic benefit of taxpayer expenditure going to a foreign country?
November 28, 2025 at 11:55 AM
Thing is though, why should *any* country - on behalf of their taxpayer - insist on a similar fee or levy on taxpayers money spent on foreign work to recoup some of the economic benefit of taxpayer expenditure going to a foreign country?
When it comes to social policy we will often do the reverse: incur huge admin costs for voucher systems with quantifiable disbenefit to avoid the possibility welfare might be spent on an "undeserved" luxury so great an emphasis we put on it.
November 26, 2025 at 6:25 PM
When it comes to social policy we will often do the reverse: incur huge admin costs for voucher systems with quantifiable disbenefit to avoid the possibility welfare might be spent on an "undeserved" luxury so great an emphasis we put on it.
...is worth the social and economic costs of the statistical outcome.
In criminal law we might say "better a hundred guilty men to free than imprison an innocent" albeit vaguely.
In criminal law we might say "better a hundred guilty men to free than imprison an innocent" albeit vaguely.
November 26, 2025 at 6:25 PM
...is worth the social and economic costs of the statistical outcome.
In criminal law we might say "better a hundred guilty men to free than imprison an innocent" albeit vaguely.
In criminal law we might say "better a hundred guilty men to free than imprison an innocent" albeit vaguely.
systemic health issue, crime, educational outcomes etc.
Systems thinking here slams straight into conservative and classical Liberal sentiments around individual responsibility. But the reality is more complex and there's a policy question on whether preserving strict personal accountability...
Systems thinking here slams straight into conservative and classical Liberal sentiments around individual responsibility. But the reality is more complex and there's a policy question on whether preserving strict personal accountability...
November 26, 2025 at 6:25 PM
systemic health issue, crime, educational outcomes etc.
Systems thinking here slams straight into conservative and classical Liberal sentiments around individual responsibility. But the reality is more complex and there's a policy question on whether preserving strict personal accountability...
Systems thinking here slams straight into conservative and classical Liberal sentiments around individual responsibility. But the reality is more complex and there's a policy question on whether preserving strict personal accountability...
And the social and economic costs of these little things can be large. If people by and large *don't* find the space to min-max every decision (many won't) or prioritise those they do from the position of perfect foresight (they can't) you wind up creating gnarly problems like...
November 26, 2025 at 6:25 PM
And the social and economic costs of these little things can be large. If people by and large *don't* find the space to min-max every decision (many won't) or prioritise those they do from the position of perfect foresight (they can't) you wind up creating gnarly problems like...
What can appear to be very minor shortcuts in policy design can make the difference between an intervention with negative or neutral economic & social value on the status quo that merely maintain people in dependency Vs creating a road out of it.
November 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM
What can appear to be very minor shortcuts in policy design can make the difference between an intervention with negative or neutral economic & social value on the status quo that merely maintain people in dependency Vs creating a road out of it.
Swapping one set of burdens (finding time for and additional costs to travel) for another (planning to be in, sorting out purchases to avoid delivery costs) doesn't necessarily help.
Lots of interesting research done around the introduction of universal credit and welfare reforms in UK 2010-15
Lots of interesting research done around the introduction of universal credit and welfare reforms in UK 2010-15
November 26, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Swapping one set of burdens (finding time for and additional costs to travel) for another (planning to be in, sorting out purchases to avoid delivery costs) doesn't necessarily help.
Lots of interesting research done around the introduction of universal credit and welfare reforms in UK 2010-15
Lots of interesting research done around the introduction of universal credit and welfare reforms in UK 2010-15
Well isn't that the whole point of food deserts in the first place: that it becomes a significant effort requiring planning and exertion to find decent food rather than having it readily available locally.
November 26, 2025 at 6:09 PM
Well isn't that the whole point of food deserts in the first place: that it becomes a significant effort requiring planning and exertion to find decent food rather than having it readily available locally.
Each task sounds easy, collectively a lot of plates spinning.
Meanwhile you or I perhaps unthinkingly order in while mulling over how best to approach the project that might get us our next promotion.
It adds up.
Meanwhile you or I perhaps unthinkingly order in while mulling over how best to approach the project that might get us our next promotion.
It adds up.
November 26, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Each task sounds easy, collectively a lot of plates spinning.
Meanwhile you or I perhaps unthinkingly order in while mulling over how best to approach the project that might get us our next promotion.
It adds up.
Meanwhile you or I perhaps unthinkingly order in while mulling over how best to approach the project that might get us our next promotion.
It adds up.
There's a corpus of research on the impact of increased cognitive load & stress living in poverty entails.
Plan weekly meals so food expenditure is over $35 but low enough to not impact other bills due between next income, while on the bus ride between two part time minimum wage paying jobs etc.
Plan weekly meals so food expenditure is over $35 but low enough to not impact other bills due between next income, while on the bus ride between two part time minimum wage paying jobs etc.
November 26, 2025 at 5:12 PM
There's a corpus of research on the impact of increased cognitive load & stress living in poverty entails.
Plan weekly meals so food expenditure is over $35 but low enough to not impact other bills due between next income, while on the bus ride between two part time minimum wage paying jobs etc.
Plan weekly meals so food expenditure is over $35 but low enough to not impact other bills due between next income, while on the bus ride between two part time minimum wage paying jobs etc.
Reposted by Seb Tallents
The most famous quote on government fuckups comes from former DfT permanent secretary Sir Richard Mottram: “We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department's fucked. It's been the biggest cock-up ever and we're all completely fucked.”
That was *much* smaller than this fuckup.
That was *much* smaller than this fuckup.
November 26, 2025 at 12:02 PM
The most famous quote on government fuckups comes from former DfT permanent secretary Sir Richard Mottram: “We're all fucked. I'm fucked. You're fucked. The whole department's fucked. It's been the biggest cock-up ever and we're all completely fucked.”
That was *much* smaller than this fuckup.
That was *much* smaller than this fuckup.
Trevor Phillips oped yesterday was quite something.
Do I want my (entirely British) Daughter and (entirely legal) Latinx wife to fear going to school lest they might be seized by paramilitary inland "border" police based on their race and bundled off to processing centres?
Hmm no.
Do I want my (entirely British) Daughter and (entirely legal) Latinx wife to fear going to school lest they might be seized by paramilitary inland "border" police based on their race and bundled off to processing centres?
Hmm no.
November 25, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Trevor Phillips oped yesterday was quite something.
Do I want my (entirely British) Daughter and (entirely legal) Latinx wife to fear going to school lest they might be seized by paramilitary inland "border" police based on their race and bundled off to processing centres?
Hmm no.
Do I want my (entirely British) Daughter and (entirely legal) Latinx wife to fear going to school lest they might be seized by paramilitary inland "border" police based on their race and bundled off to processing centres?
Hmm no.