Beau
@runningsignal.com
Backyard economist. Macro/micro coverage of the economy, trade, and technology.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
Opinions here don't get etched in stone.
I’m interested in the power laws behind these sites. Truth Social is simultaneously a low rent social media site and the official comms directory for the president. His posts get shared all downstream.
The average person would however consider most of his posts as nonsense.
The average person would however consider most of his posts as nonsense.
November 28, 2025 at 11:24 PM
I’m interested in the power laws behind these sites. Truth Social is simultaneously a low rent social media site and the official comms directory for the president. His posts get shared all downstream.
The average person would however consider most of his posts as nonsense.
The average person would however consider most of his posts as nonsense.
It should be clear that we’ve passed the veil of nationalism and central control in the White House. This is a great place for them. They can stoke anger and ego while pilfering everything around him.
November 28, 2025 at 9:28 PM
It should be clear that we’ve passed the veil of nationalism and central control in the White House. This is a great place for them. They can stoke anger and ego while pilfering everything around him.
How did it ever become tradition to put this shit in the Thanksgiving spread? Just open the tin and plop on the table.
November 27, 2025 at 8:45 PM
How did it ever become tradition to put this shit in the Thanksgiving spread? Just open the tin and plop on the table.
I say Pih-Kahn, not Pee-Can Pie. My dad's from TX, so that now checks.
November 26, 2025 at 1:25 AM
I say Pih-Kahn, not Pee-Can Pie. My dad's from TX, so that now checks.
You invest in meeting basic needs to create productive members of society. It has direct ROI.
When they are not met a person is not in a place to help with productivity. They also toil in high cost care. Children cannot grow.
Disparity drags on output. Affordability isn't just about housing.
When they are not met a person is not in a place to help with productivity. They also toil in high cost care. Children cannot grow.
Disparity drags on output. Affordability isn't just about housing.
November 26, 2025 at 12:49 AM
You invest in meeting basic needs to create productive members of society. It has direct ROI.
When they are not met a person is not in a place to help with productivity. They also toil in high cost care. Children cannot grow.
Disparity drags on output. Affordability isn't just about housing.
When they are not met a person is not in a place to help with productivity. They also toil in high cost care. Children cannot grow.
Disparity drags on output. Affordability isn't just about housing.
I like this framework because it puts reproduction at the basic level. All biological life has a drive to try to reproduce.
It's just so damn hard to do so and hold two incomes. Below is a $60K single vs $100K dual income with 1, 2, and 3 kids.
Trad lives are not a choice.
It's just so damn hard to do so and hold two incomes. Below is a $60K single vs $100K dual income with 1, 2, and 3 kids.
Trad lives are not a choice.
November 26, 2025 at 12:39 AM
I like this framework because it puts reproduction at the basic level. All biological life has a drive to try to reproduce.
It's just so damn hard to do so and hold two incomes. Below is a $60K single vs $100K dual income with 1, 2, and 3 kids.
Trad lives are not a choice.
It's just so damn hard to do so and hold two incomes. Below is a $60K single vs $100K dual income with 1, 2, and 3 kids.
Trad lives are not a choice.
We know what a poverty line isn't, but we also don't make good sense having a dichotomous view.
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
November 26, 2025 at 12:39 AM
We know what a poverty line isn't, but we also don't make good sense having a dichotomous view.
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
I take Maslow's hierarchy and try to make a base basket to meet those needs. This is prior to the mushy feeling stuff.
You can't function in society at $7.25/hr. Adult, Single Parent, and 2 kid family
National Restaurant Association shows prices jumped over 1% m/m from August and were 4.2% higher than September '24.
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
November 25, 2025 at 5:58 PM
National Restaurant Association shows prices jumped over 1% m/m from August and were 4.2% higher than September '24.
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
You can see how the stars aligned for the breakfast index though.
restaurant.org/research-and...
Was team transitory wrong about what would happen to the price level or more about how we'd get there?
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
November 25, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Was team transitory wrong about what would happen to the price level or more about how we'd get there?
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
You could argue this was only due to intervention. If left alone we'd have been on escape velocity, but then you'd need to amplify FED credibility in taming trajectories.
From Scott Brave at the Fed Bank of Chicago
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
November 25, 2025 at 5:41 PM
From Scott Brave at the Fed Bank of Chicago
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
Retail & food ex autos are doing..... ok? Less bashed by inflationary pressures.
Trailer cancellations were a little more subdued in October. A welcome sign. KPMG's Meagan Schoenberger explains trailer sales as a leading indicator on @marketplace.org.
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
November 25, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Trailer cancellations were a little more subdued in October. A welcome sign. KPMG's Meagan Schoenberger explains trailer sales as a leading indicator on @marketplace.org.
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
We'll see if we get momentum for '26 orders by Q2.
Segment's here: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
From the ACT
We've got some good Thanksgiving holiday action. We're hitting seasonal trends with zeal on volume and rejection fronts.
November 25, 2025 at 12:14 PM
We've got some good Thanksgiving holiday action. We're hitting seasonal trends with zeal on volume and rejection fronts.
Noah gently weeps for this nation’s blindness toward progress without being able to name one ‘avatar or soldier of these indelible forces’.
Where he asks, “dear reader, do not the ends justify the means?”
Where he asks, “dear reader, do not the ends justify the means?”
November 23, 2025 at 8:59 AM
Noah gently weeps for this nation’s blindness toward progress without being able to name one ‘avatar or soldier of these indelible forces’.
Where he asks, “dear reader, do not the ends justify the means?”
Where he asks, “dear reader, do not the ends justify the means?”
The best superhero movies are about their humanity
November 23, 2025 at 7:18 AM
The best superhero movies are about their humanity
See where are you friends are!
Your friends:
Your friends:
November 23, 2025 at 7:12 AM
See where are you friends are!
Your friends:
Your friends:
Good view of second order effects from the Tyson beef plant closure.
Goods make goods.
Goods make goods.
November 22, 2025 at 2:19 PM
Good view of second order effects from the Tyson beef plant closure.
Goods make goods.
Goods make goods.
Folks can ignore these changes all they want. I’ll continue to put into seasonal models for freight pricing.
People hate the cold. Diesel gels up. Less truck drivers want to go to these markets. Prices increase.
People hate the cold. Diesel gels up. Less truck drivers want to go to these markets. Prices increase.
November 22, 2025 at 11:58 AM
Folks can ignore these changes all they want. I’ll continue to put into seasonal models for freight pricing.
People hate the cold. Diesel gels up. Less truck drivers want to go to these markets. Prices increase.
People hate the cold. Diesel gels up. Less truck drivers want to go to these markets. Prices increase.
