Interesting. I don't have much hope of EV PPM scheme developing into something better. It's purely an HMT policy designed to provide revenue without messing up EV sales & rules out ever charging by where or when. + you'll end up with DfT ministers being unable to talk about it as it's a tax matter.

I think some of the rise will happen but maybe not all it. Would be good though if HMT were to do more frequent adjustments of duty though rather than all the build up we get to the Budget allowing opponents of increases to focus lobbying around a big event.

Historical rates of fuel duty, for those into that kind of thing: www.gov.uk/government/s...

IFS proposal: monthly indexation of fuel duties in line with the Consumer Prices Index (from ifs.org.uk/books/road-m...)

Perhaps what this will actually be is a move from once a year rises in the Budget to more regular and less high profile increases that minimise opposition, as @theifs.bsky.social have called for?

Biggest previous rise I can see was 3.22p in 1999 - followed by the fuel protests the following year (www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/sep/...). Rise between September 2026 and April 2027 will be 5p.

More Stalin's five year plan rather than Lenin's New Economic Policy. Perhaps easier to do when you don't have to worry about elections.

...as mentioned about expansion of the ETS to cover share of international shipping (from Budget policy costings document)

Rail fare freeze is not included in the policy costings document. Not much clarity about what it means for London so far.

The Chancellor justifies EV road pricing on the basis of wear and tear on roads. Which should be a reason to tax bigger and heavier cars more but the proposals just ignore that possibility. (and suspect most policy is driven by aim of working for Jaguar Land Rover)

"motorists will estimate their mileage for the year ahead, pay a...charge based on their estimate..., and then submit their actual mileage at the end of the year to trigger a
reconciliation. Motorists will have their mileage checked annually, typically during their MOT"

See www.gov.uk/government/c...

Also good news (though a long time to wait for action on unequal VAT rates and unnecessarily high standing charges for EV charging):

Good news: "The government will delay changes to benefit-in-kind rules for Employee Car Ownership Schemes until April 2030. For those still in contracts at that time, transitional arrangements will also be put in place to provide additional support."

Bit keener on the nuclear recommendations in the Budget document than implied in the speech

Also to come in the details (reference in OBR report): "changes to the emissions regulations of plug-in hybrid vehicles"