Rachel Ziemba
@reziemba.bsky.social
Geo-economics, EM, Energy/Resources. Obsessed by sanctions, sovereign wealth, debt, supply chains, trade. Ziemba Insights CNAS Horizon Engage NYU 🇨🇦 wine economist (dip WSET). NYC mostly, YVR often https://rziemba.substack.com
Lots of cabinet level US saudi meetings this week ahead of next weeks Trump MBS sit down- both econ, mil etc. Increases chance of deliverables even if aspirational. Some timing linked to Syria visit and likely desire of regional actors (saudi arabia, turkiye etc to be present
November 11, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Lots of cabinet level US saudi meetings this week ahead of next weeks Trump MBS sit down- both econ, mil etc. Increases chance of deliverables even if aspirational. Some timing linked to Syria visit and likely desire of regional actors (saudi arabia, turkiye etc to be present
Tariff rebate discussions are back, as President Trump wants to revive his and their political capital. So problematic- tariffs (paid by Americans) will fund a dividend to other Americans that he chooses.
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
November 9, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Tariff rebate discussions are back, as President Trump wants to revive his and their political capital. So problematic- tariffs (paid by Americans) will fund a dividend to other Americans that he chooses.
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
Tariffs not an efficient way to raise revenue yes. And being pledged to fund various things
Strong words from the Treasury dept putting kibosh on the lukoil sale to Gunvor. But not clear what they think should happen or any guidance about the potential stranded assets outside Russia.
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
November 7, 2025 at 2:12 AM
Strong words from the Treasury dept putting kibosh on the lukoil sale to Gunvor. But not clear what they think should happen or any guidance about the potential stranded assets outside Russia.
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
they dont want cash flows to Russia but no clarity on secondary sanctions etc
Fun bingo card for tariff hearing. And with my interests extending into wine and alcohol trade the wine as national emergency question is definitely of interest.
November 5, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Fun bingo card for tariff hearing. And with my interests extending into wine and alcohol trade the wine as national emergency question is definitely of interest.
Latest #thought-provoking read is Ecocide in Ukraine, which takes the lens of environmental impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine by looking at its impact on land, water air and energy (espeically nuclear) including current and future resources. An important facet of ongoing conflict and revival
November 4, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Latest #thought-provoking read is Ecocide in Ukraine, which takes the lens of environmental impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine by looking at its impact on land, water air and energy (espeically nuclear) including current and future resources. An important facet of ongoing conflict and revival
US-SK “trade deal” seems off the rails, partly due to debates whether the investment pledge is an upfront one that would drain most of their reserves ($350b pledge va$410b) or a more gradual one based on projects. Sounds even more a shakedown than what Japanese and Europeans think they agreed to.
September 30, 2025 at 9:56 AM
US-SK “trade deal” seems off the rails, partly due to debates whether the investment pledge is an upfront one that would drain most of their reserves ($350b pledge va$410b) or a more gradual one based on projects. Sounds even more a shakedown than what Japanese and Europeans think they agreed to.
I ended climate week on governor’s island at the interesting Works on Water exhibit at LMCC with art about water, reservoirs and waterways. Good day to remind about the regeneration and new uses for the island which used to be a military facility.
September 28, 2025 at 12:11 AM
I ended climate week on governor’s island at the interesting Works on Water exhibit at LMCC with art about water, reservoirs and waterways. Good day to remind about the regeneration and new uses for the island which used to be a military facility.
Speaking of US commodity exports that China has trimmed- we have oil products, aside from the lpg and ethane which they struggle to find alternates.
This is in addition to the redirection of LNG.
This is in addition to the redirection of LNG.
September 25, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Speaking of US commodity exports that China has trimmed- we have oil products, aside from the lpg and ethane which they struggle to find alternates.
This is in addition to the redirection of LNG.
This is in addition to the redirection of LNG.
Good Vortexa discussions in NYC including on oil market impacts of the Ukrainian oil infrastructure attacks (drop in naptha and diesel exports from Russia) and the sanctions (including fact that OFAC designated vessels still more likely to be removed from use vs EU/UK
September 25, 2025 at 10:01 PM
Good Vortexa discussions in NYC including on oil market impacts of the Ukrainian oil infrastructure attacks (drop in naptha and diesel exports from Russia) and the sanctions (including fact that OFAC designated vessels still more likely to be removed from use vs EU/UK
Tho his prior post highlighted the need for a “trade deal” with China that includes more ag market access or purchase agreements.
September 25, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Tho his prior post highlighted the need for a “trade deal” with China that includes more ag market access or purchase agreements.
Interesting to see this criticism of Arg support from Grassley, who represents lots of farmers. May play out more via farm subsidies vs pulling Argentine support but sign that Trump/Bessent backstop may not be as strong. US has lost soybean market share to Arg/Br in recent years
September 25, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Interesting to see this criticism of Arg support from Grassley, who represents lots of farmers. May play out more via farm subsidies vs pulling Argentine support but sign that Trump/Bessent backstop may not be as strong. US has lost soybean market share to Arg/Br in recent years
When rain is in the forecast, bring an umbrella and rain jacket to the outdoor theatre. Sadly the show ended up cancelled after many delays, but the rain is much needed amid drought conditions.
September 25, 2025 at 2:01 AM
When rain is in the forecast, bring an umbrella and rain jacket to the outdoor theatre. Sadly the show ended up cancelled after many delays, but the rain is much needed amid drought conditions.
Sunny day at UNGA side-events.
September 23, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Sunny day at UNGA side-events.
Notable that U/S Hurley is chosing Mexico as his first international trip- it highlights the high priority UST/USG is putting on using financial tools to stop drug trade and cartel efforts. OFAC/UST now expects a lot more due diligence from entities with Mexico/cent America links
September 17, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Notable that U/S Hurley is chosing Mexico as his first international trip- it highlights the high priority UST/USG is putting on using financial tools to stop drug trade and cartel efforts. OFAC/UST now expects a lot more due diligence from entities with Mexico/cent America links
Interesting data on Saudi travel accounts which have shifted to surplus- perhaps one of the few positive parts ot the current account. How much of this reflects extensive business travel?
Could we be looking at overinvoicing? Something to watch - from Saudi econ bulletin
Could we be looking at overinvoicing? Something to watch - from Saudi econ bulletin
September 5, 2025 at 3:51 PM
Interesting data on Saudi travel accounts which have shifted to surplus- perhaps one of the few positive parts ot the current account. How much of this reflects extensive business travel?
Could we be looking at overinvoicing? Something to watch - from Saudi econ bulletin
Could we be looking at overinvoicing? Something to watch - from Saudi econ bulletin
Its early still to look at August export volumes for sanctioned oil producers, but @tankertrackers.com data suggests August, when the new Chevron license kicked in, was one of highest export volume months in the last 4 years. Most volumes to China still, but some to US.
September 2, 2025 at 7:35 PM
Its early still to look at August export volumes for sanctioned oil producers, but @tankertrackers.com data suggests August, when the new Chevron license kicked in, was one of highest export volume months in the last 4 years. Most volumes to China still, but some to US.
I’m old enough to remember writing notes about how a government owner of a private corporation choosing not to take up its allowed board seat did not eliminate governance issues. Then I was thinking about Singapore and AD investments in banks etc. and so many other qs with USG shares,
August 22, 2025 at 9:11 PM
I’m old enough to remember writing notes about how a government owner of a private corporation choosing not to take up its allowed board seat did not eliminate governance issues. Then I was thinking about Singapore and AD investments in banks etc. and so many other qs with USG shares,
Useful chart on how effective furniture tariff rates have already gone up… which makes one wonder, will furniture be exempt from country level tariffs in the interim. If so, cue the front-loading?
August 22, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Useful chart on how effective furniture tariff rates have already gone up… which makes one wonder, will furniture be exempt from country level tariffs in the interim. If so, cue the front-loading?
The annual report also showed a significant increase in the share of Saudi local equity holdings (much is from Aramco holding) and decline in liquid assets abroad which likely includes listed US equities. International capital mkt portfolio down in share and value
www.pif.gov.sa/en/investors...
www.pif.gov.sa/en/investors...
August 15, 2025 at 7:24 PM
The annual report also showed a significant increase in the share of Saudi local equity holdings (much is from Aramco holding) and decline in liquid assets abroad which likely includes listed US equities. International capital mkt portfolio down in share and value
www.pif.gov.sa/en/investors...
www.pif.gov.sa/en/investors...
Plenty of news out on Saudi Arabia’s PIF this week including their annual report for 2024 and 13F on reported US equity holdings through end of Q2 2025. Both consistent with a message of the more domestic focus with local portfolio companies. Reported holdings of listed US equity down.
August 15, 2025 at 7:21 PM
Plenty of news out on Saudi Arabia’s PIF this week including their annual report for 2024 and 13F on reported US equity holdings through end of Q2 2025. Both consistent with a message of the more domestic focus with local portfolio companies. Reported holdings of listed US equity down.
There is vague reference to what would be required to lift or amend tariff. Significant steps to address emergency- end war, or major security alignment with the US.
New measures only cover India, who is one of largest importers of Russian fuel and bigger post 2022 swing buyer
New measures only cover India, who is one of largest importers of Russian fuel and bigger post 2022 swing buyer
August 6, 2025 at 2:42 PM
There is vague reference to what would be required to lift or amend tariff. Significant steps to address emergency- end war, or major security alignment with the US.
New measures only cover India, who is one of largest importers of Russian fuel and bigger post 2022 swing buyer
New measures only cover India, who is one of largest importers of Russian fuel and bigger post 2022 swing buyer
Caught a glimpse of the WoodFibre LNG site and recruitment push while driving through Squamish yesterday. Wood Fibre is a 2.1mt LNG project under construction hopefully coming online in 2027. Another small addition to Canada’s direct export of LNG. Costs are rising tho.
August 4, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Caught a glimpse of the WoodFibre LNG site and recruitment push while driving through Squamish yesterday. Wood Fibre is a 2.1mt LNG project under construction hopefully coming online in 2027. Another small addition to Canada’s direct export of LNG. Costs are rising tho.
Last night’s drone show in Vancouver, before the fireworks, was well done, quiet and thematically definitely fitting with the all Canadian lineup of pyrotechnics for this year’s festival. YVR remains a great place in many seasons.
July 20, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Last night’s drone show in Vancouver, before the fireworks, was well done, quiet and thematically definitely fitting with the all Canadian lineup of pyrotechnics for this year’s festival. YVR remains a great place in many seasons.
Trump adds Canada to letter list- new 35% tariffs August 1, but details scarce. The tariffs if implemented are piling up to quite high levels, especially as Trump is talking about raising the universal tariff to 15%+ plus no certainty about future movew
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
July 11, 2025 at 12:41 AM
Trump adds Canada to letter list- new 35% tariffs August 1, but details scarce. The tariffs if implemented are piling up to quite high levels, especially as Trump is talking about raising the universal tariff to 15%+ plus no certainty about future movew
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I think its more an artifact of some one off monthly move in january.
Here’s the data smoothed as rolling 3m averages -exports of US wine to China in late 2023/early 2024 higher than quarters before or after. I need to lengthen my dataset to include a time Chinese demand was actually strong
Here’s the data smoothed as rolling 3m averages -exports of US wine to China in late 2023/early 2024 higher than quarters before or after. I need to lengthen my dataset to include a time Chinese demand was actually strong
July 8, 2025 at 2:32 PM
I think its more an artifact of some one off monthly move in january.
Here’s the data smoothed as rolling 3m averages -exports of US wine to China in late 2023/early 2024 higher than quarters before or after. I need to lengthen my dataset to include a time Chinese demand was actually strong
Here’s the data smoothed as rolling 3m averages -exports of US wine to China in late 2023/early 2024 higher than quarters before or after. I need to lengthen my dataset to include a time Chinese demand was actually strong