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reescatophuls.bsky.social
Rees Cat Ophuls
@reescatophuls.bsky.social
290 followers 550 following 140 posts
Analytical Graphics for Climate Change and Planetary Boundaries. Some graphics risk being impenetrable ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Fan of Williams' Rees, Catton, Ophuls
https://ParisAgreementTemperatureIndex.com/climate-graphics
Posts Replies Media Videos
reescatophuls.bsky.social
An update to a classic

#ClimateInactionStripes #ShowYourStripes
CC: @tadziomueller.bsky.social
A graph showing 3 things: 1) CO2 ppm concentrations in the atmosphere rising from 330 in 1975 up to over 427 in 2025 2) Warming stripes for each year, showing global warming as per: https://showyourstripes.info/ 3) The dates for various conferences, Protocols, Accords, Agreements Updating this graph was suggested by Tadzio Mueller: https://bsky.app/profile/tadziomueller.bsky.social/post/3m5giurpi7k2f If you are interested in how the graph was created, and the sanity checks applied, see https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/co2-global-warming-stripes-conferences/
November 12, 2025 at 10:25 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Global Warming surging upwards in waves.
The last 365 days:
* 100% over 1.0C
* 50% over 1.5C
* 4% over 1.8C
The post 2024 mega-surge hasn't fully bottomed out yet.
What will 2026 bring us?

#ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling
The image is a graph. X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 7th November 2025. Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones. Example On 7th September 2025, the previous 365 days had: * 100.0% days over 1.0C * 98.4% days over 1.1C * 94.8% days over 1.2C * 84.9% days over 1.3C * 69.6% days over 1.4C * 50.1% days over 1.5C * 34.2% days over 1.6C * 16.2% days over 1.7C * 3.6% days over 1.8C * 0.8% days over 1.9C * 0.0% days over 2.0C The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly (0.2C, 0.3C, etc), and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over 5+ year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time. The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline. This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025, June 2025 How the graph was created: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/
November 9, 2025 at 2:28 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
My previous post begs for this one

It asks the question: Has waiting for a 20 year average made much difference in the past?

This new graphic takes the previous one (longest running average for a given date), and for each point on the graph, draws a line back to the “centred-moving-average” date
This graph is a bit of head-scratcher. The starting logic, is to note that different people suggest using a 10-year average or 20-year average to get the current global warming state. This graph tries to answer the question: In the past, has there been any benefit to waiting for the 20-year-average. X-Axis: Years 1980 to 2026 Y-Axis: For a Given Date, what is the longest period where the running average equals a Global Warming Milestone. The values are from 0-year-longest-running-average up to 20-year-longest-running-average. Then for each point plotted on the graph draw a line back to the date, where the centered-moving-average has the same value. E.g. In December 1995 the 20 year average crossed 0.5C Global Warming. So that means, in December 1985, the 20 year centered-moving-average crossed 0.5C E.g. In November 2004 the 10 year average crossed 0.75C Global Warming. So that means, in November 1999, the 10 year centered-moving-average crossed 0.75C There is one line for each of the Global Warming Milestones (0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C) Example: For 1.00C Global Warming (E.g. Global Surface Mean Temperature Anomaly), there is a line, which starts in 1998 and bumps along the x-axis before shooting up from around the year 2004, and reaches the top of the graph in December 2020. E.g. in 2020, the 20-year running average was 1.C. Then, for each point plotted on the graph draw a faint gray horizontal line, back to the date for the centered-moving-average. The thing that is interesting, is that back in the 80s, the centered-moving-average date, at which a milestone was crossed moved forwards in time. More recently the centered-moving-average date actually is static, or even moves back in time ! Also the main lines are getting closer together. Further details on how the graph was created, commentary, and what sanity checks were performed are available at: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/longest-running-average
November 6, 2025 at 9:46 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
The 3 Year Average for Global Warming just passed 1.5C

The 2 Year Average passed 1.5C in November 2024

I wondered: what is the longest running average, that equals 1.5C for any given date

What about the other Global Warming Milestones: 0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.75C

Data: ERA5
Image is of a Graph X-Axis: Years 1980 to 2026 Y-Axis: For a Given Date, what is the longest period where the running average equals a Global Warming Milestone. The Y-Axis values are from 0-year-running-average up to 20-year-running-average There is one line for each of the Global Warming Milestones (0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C) Example: For 1.00C Global Warming (E.g. Global Surface Mean Temperature Anomaly), there is a line, which starts in 1998 and bumps along the x-axis before shooting up from around the year 2004, and reaches the top of the graph in December 2020. E.g. in 2004 the longest running average that equals 1C started to be consistently above zero. By December 2020 the longest running average that equaled 1C, was 20-year-running-average. The overall impression of the graph, is that when the global temperature start to reach a warming milestone, you get short periods (months) where the global warming running average reaches that milestone. By the time the longest running average reaches around 3-8 years, then, the longest running average just keeps going up. One could argue that we crossed that milestone at the center date of the running average. E.g. 10years before the 20-year-running-average reached the milestone. Further details on how the graph was created, commentary, and what sanity checks were performed are available at: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/longest-running-average/
November 6, 2025 at 9:39 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Just noticed that the Berkeley Earth data already has the 3-year average over 1.5C
A table showing the Berkeley Earth data for global warming. It has 2022 Sept/Oct/NovDec, 2023 year, 2024 year, 2025 jan to aug It shows that when they are all added up, the 3 year running average is over 1.5C Contents of the table 2022 September 1.24 https://berkeleyearth.wpengine.com/september-2022-temperature-update/ 2022 October 1.37 https://berkeleyearth.wpengine.com/october-2022-temperature-update/ 2022 November 1.1 https://berkeleyearth.wpengine.com/november-2022-temperature-update/ 2022 December 1.25 Admittedly, I can't find a reference for this. It is calculated from their raw data 2023 YEAR 1.54 https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/ 2024 YEAR 1.62 https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/ 2025 January 1.64 https://berkeleyearth.org/january-2025-temperature-update/ 2025 February 1.49 https://berkeleyearth.org/february-2025-temperature-update/ 2025 March 1.55 https://berkeleyearth.org/march-2025-temperature-update/ 2025 April 1.49 https://berkeleyearth.org/april-2025-temperature-update/ 2025 May 1.33 https://berkeleyearth.org/may-2025-temperature-update/ 2025 June 1.31 https://berkeleyearth.org/june-2025-temperature-update/ 2025 July 1.29 https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2025-temperature-update/ 2025 August 1.42 https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2025-temperature-update/ 3 year average 1.51
October 22, 2025 at 6:14 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
800 individual days have been at least 1.5C above the Pre-Industrial baseline

Summer 2025 was largely under 1.5C

> Will we pass 900 days in 2026?
> Will we pass 1000 days by 2027?
> Will the Loess 30-yr trend pass 1.5C before 2028?

Data: Copernicus ERA5 - Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly
Graph purpose: Show both the individual days of global warming, and the longer term trends. X-Axis: Years, from Jan 1940 until 7th Feb 2025 Y-Axis: Cumulative number of days above different global warming milestones (Log scale, from 0 to 10,000 days). For the unwary, beware the Log Scale !! Additional information: The Dates at which the Global Warming trend line (Loess 30 year window trend line) crossed different Global Warming Milestones. E.g. by 22nd September 2025, there have cumulatively been 800 individual days above 1.5C Global Warming. E.g. in August 1985, the Loess trend line for the Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly crossed 0.5C. Note that these dates shift a bit as new data comes in. For instance, Summer 2025 a bit cooler (than 2023/2024), and this was enough to shift the date for passing 1.00C from Dec 2011 to Jan 20212 (in practice this was a shift of 3 days). The Graphs includes Global Warming Milestones: 0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C, 2.0C Data used: Copernicus ERA5 with 1850-1900 baseline (Pre-Industrial) Graph Design Details on website: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/ Note the log scale on the Y-Axis. This allows the graph to show that the number of days above 0.5C, 0.75C etc ... keep going up, but it allows the focus to go on the higher temperatures that are happening more recently.
September 24, 2025 at 8:07 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
The #Arctic Annual Sea Ice Minimum isn't what it used to be.

There is now a huge area of ice under 1.5m thick, and only tiny patches over 3.5m thick.

@polarportal.bsky.social
Image shows two images of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness, when the Arctic Sea Ice Volume is at its annual minimum. Image on the left is for September 12th 2005 Taken from: https://polarportal-prod.dmi.dk/api/v1/serve-image/sea?image_name=CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20050912.png Image on the right is for September 12th 2025 (E.g. 20 years later). Taken from: https://polarportal-prod.dmi.dk/api/v1/serve-image/sea?image_name=1757683101701_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20250912.png The 2005 image on the left shows substantial areas of ice which are over 3m thick, and plenty of patches which are over 4m thick. The 2025 image on the right shows huge areas which are below 1m thickness, and only tiny patches above 3.5m thickness. See the main webpage, to more details: https://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/
September 12, 2025 at 3:11 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Global warming surging upwards in waves.

The last 365 days:
* 100% over 1.2C
* 67% over 1.5C
* 5% over 1.8C

Last 100 days averages below 1.5C
First day below 1.25C in 700 days
The 2024 mega surge is over.
When will the next one be?

Details in Alt Text
#ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling
X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 5th June 2025. Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones. On 5th June 2025, the previous 365 days had: * 100.0% days over 1.2C * 98.6% days over 1.3C * 86.0% days over 1.4C * 67.4% days over 1.5C * 42.7% days over 1.6C * 20.0% days over 1.7C * 4.7% days over 1.8C * 0.8% days over 1.9C * 0.0% days over 2.0C The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly, and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over 5+ year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time. The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline. This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025 How the graph was created: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/
June 7, 2025 at 5:03 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
1000 Day Running Average crosses 1.5C

Details in Alt Text
#ShowYourStripes @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social
Graphic: 1000-day running average Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) anomaly (Copernicus ERA5 data) relative to Pre-Industrial. Graph is 1980 to May 25th 2025. Background shows Ed Hawkin's "Show Your Stripes" lines Source: https://sites.ecmwf.int/data/climatepulse/data/series/era5_daily_series_2t_global.csv How to get anomaly relative to Pre-Industrial (1850-1900): https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/copernicus-1850-1900-baseline-daily-gmst/ Sanity Check Sources: Below are links to Copernicus's website, with gives GMST anomalies for various months/years. If you average them (properly, taking into account number of days that each value represents) ... and add May 2025 values then you get a 1000-day running average crossing 1.5C on 25th May 2025 https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2022 September 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-october-2022 Oct 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-november-2022 Nov 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2022 Dec 2022 is around 1.2°C above the 1850-1900 level https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record 2023 was 1.48°C warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024 2024 was ... 1.60°C warmer than the pre-industrial level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2025 Jan 2025 was 1.75°C above the pre-industrial level https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-february-2025 Feb 2025 was 1.59°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-march-2025 Mar 2025 was 1.60°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2025 Apr 2025 was 1.51°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average
May 28, 2025 at 7:22 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Brutal temperatures forecast for Pakistan, by 15th May 2025.
Image showing a map of Asia, with an arrow pointing to Pakistan The colours of the map indicate the forecast temperature (Celcius) for the 7-10 day forecast from ClimateReanalyzer. Pakistan looks to be forecast 50C temperatures. Image from: https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/?dm_id=asia-lea2&ndays=d7-10 Taken on 9th May 2025
May 9, 2025 at 12:51 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
The #Arctic sea ice isn't what it used to be.
The area covered is similar, but now much thinner.
Details in Alt Text. @polarportal.bsky.social
Image shows two images of the Arctic Sea Ice Thickness, when the Arctic Sea Ice Volume is at its annual maximum. Image on the left is for May 1st 2005 Taken from: https://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20050501.png Image on the right is for May 1st 2025 (E.g. 20 years later). Taken from: https://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20250501.png The 2005 image on the left shows substantial areas of ice which are over 4m thick. The 2025 image on the right shows huge areas which are below 2m thickness, very few areas above 4m thickness. See the main webpage, to more details: https://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/
May 1, 2025 at 7:54 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Hi @leonsimons.bsky.social
Below is the linear-y-axis version of the same graph.
The 1.75C and 2.00C lines are (unsurprisingly) no longer visible.

Details in Alt Text
See previous version of this graph: https://bsky.app/profile/reescatophuls.bsky.social/post/3lmshnc3it22q ... where the y-axis was logarithmic. This new post uses a linear y-axis. X-Axis - Dates from 1970 -> April 2025 (12th April) Y-Axis - Cumulative days (since 1940) above global warming milestones Data uses Copernicus ERA5 data, with anomalies above 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. The top line is "days over 0.5C global warming anomaly" The one-but-top line is "days over 0.75C ..." The colours are the interesting point in this graph. I worked out the percentage of the previous-2555-days that are over the given global warming milestone. E.g. the top line, show that since around 2011, 100% of the previous 2555 days (7-years, 7*365 days) are above 0.5C global warming anomaly. The vertical lines, leading down to the grey box shows what date the Loess-30-year-window trend line, passed a given global warming milestone. It looks like, when about 20-40% of the previous 7-years are above a given global warming milestone, the loess-30-year-window trend crosses that milestone. Overall, just one more indication that we are getting very close to the trend crossing 1.5C. Why did I choose 7-year average? I wanted a long enough period to reduce the variations from things like the la-nina/el-nino cycle. See: * Dataset: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gmst-data-sets/ * Calculating Anomalies: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/copernicus-1850-1900-baseline-daily-gmst/ * Creating cumulative graph: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/
April 15, 2025 at 11:15 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
I was wondering if the percentage-of-days above a global warming milestone was fairly steady, at the point the trend line passed that milestone.

I settled on using percent-of-days-in-previous-7-years that were over a given milestone.

An ugly, but interesting graph. Explanation in the Alt Text.
X-Axis - Dates from 1970 -> April 2025 (12th April) Y-Axis - Cumulative days (since 1940) above global warming milestones Data uses Copernicus ERA5 data, with anomalies above 1850-1900 pre-industrial period. The top line is "days over 0.5C global warming anomaly" The one-but-top line is "days over 0.75C ..." The colours are the interesting point in this graph. I worked out the percentage of the previous-2555-days that are over the given global warming milestone. E.g. the top line, show that since around 2011, 100% of the previous 2555 days (7-years, 7*365 days) are above 0.5C global warming anomaly. The vertical lines, leading down to the grey box shows what date the Loess-30-year-window trend line, passed a given global warming milestone. It looks like, when about 20-40% of the previous 7-years are above a given global warming milestone, the loess-30-year-window trend crosses that milestone. Overall, just one more indication that we are getting very close to the trend crossing 1.5C. Why did I choose 7-year average? I wanted a long enough period to reduce the variations from things like the la-nina/el-nino cycle. See: * Dataset: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/gmst-data-sets/ * Calculating Anomalies: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/copernicus-1850-1900-baseline-daily-gmst/ * Creating cumulative graph: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/
April 14, 2025 at 9:04 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Arctic sea ice volume very low too, for this time of year.

Source: polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-a...
X axis: months of the year Y axis: Arctic sea ice volume Graph shows that for the last 9 months, the arctic sea ice volume has been continuously well below anything we've seen in this dataset (although you would need to look at some more years/data to see this does indeed hold true, which it does)
April 5, 2025 at 10:39 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Global warming surging upwards in waves.

The ENSO 3.4 line shows that El Nino's line up well, with the warming surges.

The last 365 days:
* 100% over 1.3C
* 76% over 1.5C
* 5% over 1.8C

Details in Alt Text
#ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling
X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 26th March 2025. Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones. The red/blue line below the main graphic shows the ENSO 3.4 graph, With data taken from NOAA: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/month/Nino34/ The Red sections show ENSO 3.4 values above zero. The Red bumps (periods of El Nino), line up well with the warming surges. The Blue sections show ENSO 3.4 values below zero. The Blue dips (periods of La Nina), line up well with more subdued temperatures. On 26th March 2025, the previous 365 days had: * 100.0% days over 1,3C * 93.7% days over 1.4C * 75.6% days over 1.5C * 47.7% days over 1.6C * 22.7% days over 1.7C * 4.7% days over 1.8C * 0.8% days over 1.9C * 0.0% days over 2.0C The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly, and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over 5+ year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time. The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline. This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024 and February 2025. How the graph was created: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/
March 28, 2025 at 8:13 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
The current Arctic Sea Ice Volume, and the forecast for November 2025 Arctic heat ... mean the graphs could be eye-opening for the rest of the year!

I'm informed by @paulhbeckwith.bsky.social that what happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic.

bsky.app/profile/peak...
Graph showing the Arctic Sea Ice Volume X-Axis: Months, January to December Y-Axis: Arctic Sea Ice Volume The graph shows that every year the Arctic Sea Ice volume follows a sinusoidal pattern, with the max volume in May and Min volume in September. The 2025 line (up to late February) is significantly below the other years.
February 26, 2025 at 2:51 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Berkeley Earth Data shows that the Loess-15-year window trendline passed 1.5C in Jan 2025

Hyperbole warning: Other (less jumpy) trend line smoothing functions and other datasets won't get to 1.5 for a while

Interesting, for the climate data nerds though

Details in Alt Text
X axis - Years 1860 -> 31st Dec 2024 Y Axis - Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly relative to pre-industrial (1850-1900) Graph has three data series: monthly, yearly, loess-15-year-window Data is from Berkeley Earth See https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/trends-and-projections/ ... regarding the design, data, smoothing and sanity checks I performed on this. My checks included overlaying this graph on top of the one posted by Zeke Hausfarther on 22 Jan 2025 https://bsky.app/profile/hausfath.bsky.social/post/3lgcjuq52nj2l - As per https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/climate-reporting-why-so-many-different-values/ ... there are five datasets I play with and there are different smoothing functions you can apply. Berkely Earth is the hottest of the datasets. The 15-year-loess-window trend line is quite jumpy. More dampened trend lines like the loess 30-year window won't reach 1.5 for a while yet Other datasets (copernicus ERA5, noaa, giss, hadCRUT) won't reach 1.5 for a while yet.
February 9, 2025 at 7:13 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Every day in 2025 has been above 1.5C, so far.

Individual Days, where Global Warming is above 1.5C and 1.75C keep coming.

Details in Alt Text
Graph purpose: Show both the individual days of global warming, and the longer term trends. X-Axis: Years, from Jan 1940 until 7th Feb 2025 Y-Axis: Cumulative number of days above different global warming milestones (Log scale, from 0 to 10,000 days) Additional information: The Dates at which the Global Warming trend line (Loess 30 year window trend line) crossed different Global Warming Milestones. E.g. in August 1985, the Loess trend line for the Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly crossed 0.5C. The Graphs includes Global Warming Milestones: 0.5C, 0.75C, 1C, 1.25C, 1.5C, 1.75C, 2.0C Data used: Copernicus ERA5 with 1850-1900 baseline (Pre-Industrial) Graph Design Details on website: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-climate-graphic-design/ Note the log scale on the Y-Axis. This allows the graph to show that the number of days above 0.5C, 0.75C etc ... keep going up, but it allows the focus to go on the higher temperatures that are happening more recently.
February 9, 2025 at 11:08 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Global warming surging upwards in waves

The last 365 days:
* 100% over 1.3C
* 77% over 1.5C
* 9% over 1.8C

Details in Alt Text
#ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling
CC: @marchudson.bsky.social @allouryesterdays.bsky.social
X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 5th Feb 2025. Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global temperature anomaly milestones. On 5th Feb 2025, the previous 365 days had: * 100.0% days over 1,3C * 93.7% days over 1.4C * 77.0% days over 1.5C * 49.0% days over 1.6C * 24.1% days over 1.7C * 8.5% days over 1.8C * 3.6% days over 1.9C * 1.1% days over 2.0C The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly, and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over 5+ year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time. The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline. This graphic is an update, to the one I posted in September 2024 How the graph was created: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/
February 7, 2025 at 5:57 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Carbon brief collected the Global Warming Datasets
Average is 1.54C
All relative to 1850-1900 baseline

1.47 C: Nasa GISTEMP
1.53 C: HadCRUT5
1.46 C: NOAA
1.62 C: Berkeley Earth
1.60 C: Copernicus ERA5
1.59 C: JRA-3Q
1.52 C: Japanese Met Agency

www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the...
Table of global warming anomalies. The text in the post has the same info Sources: https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-sets-a-new-record-as-the-first-year-above-1-5c/ https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/temperatures-rising-nasa-confirms-2024-warmest-year-on-record https://www.noaa.gov/news/2024-was-worlds-warmest-year-on-record https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-climate-highlights-2024
January 10, 2025 at 4:38 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Arctic Sea Ice Volume - Kind of amazing that for over 10 months of the year:

Either:
... 2005 was above the 2024 maximum (6 months)
Or:
... 2024 was below the 2005 minimum (4+ months)

#ClimateChange #Arctic
Two graphs showing the Arctic Sea Ice Volume from Jan to December The graph on the left includes the 2005 Arctic Sea Ice Volume The graph on the left includes the 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Volume Comparing the two graphs, you can see that in 2005, the arctic ice volume for the first 6 months was higher than the maximum volume in the whole of 2024 Comparing the two graphs, you can see that in 2024, the arctic ice volume between mid July and October was lower than the minimum volume in the whole of 2005 Source: http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/
January 8, 2025 at 6:12 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
- 702 individual days above 1.5C Paris Agreement
(Cumulative since 1940)

- 76% days in 2024 over 1.5C

- When will loess trend line first cross 1.5C ?
parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/1000-day-cli...

Data: Copernicus ERA-5
Note: Trend line shifts as new data is added:
bsky.app/profile/rees...
Graph from 1940-Present (Jan 4th 2025) showing the cumulative number of days, that we have been above global warming milestones. E.g. By the 4th Jan 2025 we have experienced: * 702 days with global mean surface temperature anomaly over 1.5C * 121 days with global mean surface temperature anomaly over 1.75C * 6 days with global mean surface temperature anomaly over 2C The graph also indicates when the Loess-30-year trend line crossed different global warming milestones. E.g. in Aug 1985 the trend line crossed the 0.5C Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly milestone.
January 7, 2025 at 3:15 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
I was wondering how long it takes from the first appearance of a global warming milestone, to it being a permanent fixture

Graph's data smoothing underplays 2024 raw data, which has 12 months over 1.25C and 11 months over 1.5C

parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/months-above...
Details in alt text
Kept messing up this post. Third time lucky! Graph shows how many months per year are above various global warming milestones. E.g. 1982 has 2 months above 0.75C GMST anomaly Note that smoothing is applied to make the trends less jumpy. This means that 2024 points for 1.25C and 1.5C are below the raw numbers. E.g. In 2024 ALL the months were above 1.25C and 11 months were above 1.5C Updates compared to previous posting of this graph * Includes 2024 data * Switched from Berkeley Earth dataset to Copernicus Dataset * Graph runs from 1945 -> 2024 (previously from 1850) * Graph doesn't include 0.25C milestone * Smoothing changed to use 3-year-centred-average, (and 2-year weighted running average for 2024)
December 29, 2024 at 3:58 PM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
Hudson, the red nosed Bay. Here!
Merry Xmas!
December 24, 2024 at 10:46 AM
reescatophuls.bsky.social
My favoured Trend line for Global warming moves way more than I expected

GMST Anomaly data is noisy. The loess-30-yr trend line shifts as the latest data is added

E.g In hindsight we might see that we crossed 1.5C years earlier than initially thought. Look at 1.25C moving from Dec 2022 to Jul 2020
December 21, 2024 at 10:57 AM