If Mon & Tues close higher does that kill the Wed-Fri Thanksgiving bullish edge? Nope. I'll be discussing this study and more in tonight's letter. Also...Black Friday sale coming later this week so it might be a good time to take a free trial: quantifiableedges.com/subscribers/... $SPY $SPX

Yesterday I posted Thanksgiving week stats.Wed-Fri both have bullish tendencies. This is NOT a secret. In fact, it is an edge that is often front-run on Tuesday afternoon...I say this because 9 of last 10 Thanksgiving-week Tuesdays saw $SPY close in the top 1/2 of its intraday range. $SPX $STUDY

An updated look at Thanksgiving week stats: quantifiableedges.com/an-updated-l... $SPX $SPY $STUDY

Despite spike in $VIX the Nov-Dec futures are still slightly in contango. And rest of term structure looks orderly. Selloff not creating panic yet.

Since the 9/11/2001 attacks and tragedy, September 11th has been a very strong day for the market. See study below, which will be included in tonight's subscriber letter. $SPX $SPY

The Reversal Tendency of Labor Day Week: quantifiableedges.com/the-reversal... $SPX $SPY $QUANT $STUDY #seasonality

July has historically seen the best 1st day of any month. Performance from 1989 - 2024 can be seen in the attached chart. Note the last 14 years in a row have closed higher!

$SPX is very close to a new all-time high. Interestingly, the 50ma is still below the 200ma (Death Cross formation). It takes a sharp rally to accomplish that. I looked back and found only 4 previous instances where $SPX closed at a new high while Death Cross was still in effect. $SPY $QUANT $STUDY

Here's an interesting little study that popped up while I was doing my research this weekend... $SPY $SPX $QUANT $STUDY

@vixologist pointed out that the $VIX 18-point drop Wed was the biggest ever. Here are all instances of 10+ point drops. Maybe it'll be different this time... $SPX $SPY

Here's a look at short-term returns following all other 1-day $SPX gains of 9% or more. $SPY

Below is every time we saw $SPY gap down > 2% after closing at a 3-day high but below the 200ma. Most saw further selling from open to close that day. All saw a bounce the next. No guarantees. Just interesting. $SPX

Strong Selling The Day Before A Fed Day : quantifiableedges.com/strong-selli... $SPY $SPX $FED $STUDY

Quantifiable Edges CBI moved up to 10 on Friday despite big $SPX $SPY rally. 1st time ever it moved up through 9 while $SPX gained 2%. Only time it did with 1% gain was 3/17/2011. Study below shows all instances $SPX rose at ALL on a day the CBI crossed above 9 AND $SPX closed below the 200ma. #CBI

It's been a rough start to the year for the US market. $SPY is down near the bottom. And if $IWM was on the list, it would be worst at -5.51%. $SPX

$SPY threatening a 2% gap down from Friday's close. Highly unusual to see such a large gap in an uptrend. Here is full list of instances of 2% down gaps when $SPY had closed within 1% of 250-day high the day before. $SPX $STUDY