Charlie Williams
@pontifc8.bsky.social
Professor at Bocconi University in Milan. Amiable dabbler posting about business research, business education, strategy execution, human impact of business, and maybe a few other things.
tldr: it all comes down to Baumol’s disease plus rising opportunity costs of family work. www.ft.com/content/3fa9... Why Americans are feeling poorer even though they’re not
Why Americans are feeling poorer even though they’re not
Essential services cost more because people are better off
www.ft.com
December 6, 2025 at 7:59 AM
tldr: it all comes down to Baumol’s disease plus rising opportunity costs of family work. www.ft.com/content/3fa9... Why Americans are feeling poorer even though they’re not
Reposted by Charlie Williams
Perfect, no notes 👇
I named my fists Kahneman and Tversky because I’m gonna make your losses loom larger than your gains
I named my fists Common and Sense because I'm about to bring the Paine
December 1, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Perfect, no notes 👇
I just finished Moby Dick. The last 25-30 chapters are a rip-roaring yarn. What elevates it to “classic” experience is the relief of getting through the first 100 chapters of whale trivia and ship gossip.
November 19, 2025 at 5:54 PM
I just finished Moby Dick. The last 25-30 chapters are a rip-roaring yarn. What elevates it to “classic” experience is the relief of getting through the first 100 chapters of whale trivia and ship gossip.
I just finished Moby Dick. The last 25-30 chapters are a rip-roaring yarn. What elevates it to classic is the sheer relief of getting through the first 100 chapters of whale trivia and ship gossip.
November 19, 2025 at 5:23 PM
I just finished Moby Dick. The last 25-30 chapters are a rip-roaring yarn. What elevates it to classic is the sheer relief of getting through the first 100 chapters of whale trivia and ship gossip.
Fine for Harvard students though.
November 19, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Fine for Harvard students though.
They should put in auctions where you bid to recline while the person behind bids to prevent reclining. To the winner go the spoils.
October 20, 2025 at 6:30 AM
They should put in auctions where you bid to recline while the person behind bids to prevent reclining. To the winner go the spoils.
Reposted by Charlie Williams
“We found over 35 cases in which the judges have specifically said what the government is providing…false information. It might be intentionally false information, including false sworn declarations time and again," says Ryan Goodman, law professor at New York University.
October 19, 2025 at 11:43 PM
“We found over 35 cases in which the judges have specifically said what the government is providing…false information. It might be intentionally false information, including false sworn declarations time and again," says Ryan Goodman, law professor at New York University.
Oh, Europe. Self-parody is so 2018.
In short, you can call it a "hamburger" if it contains meat rather than ham, because everyone knows what a hamburger is; but you can't call it a "veggie burger" if it is veggie-based, because that would be confusing. 🙃
Today the EU parliament voted to ban the word burger if they are made with plant protein, instead of animal protein. 🤦🏻♀️
They claim it’s to stop consumers being ‘confused between meat and plant products’ - solving a problem that nobody had!
This new rule leaves a bad taste in the mouth…
They claim it’s to stop consumers being ‘confused between meat and plant products’ - solving a problem that nobody had!
This new rule leaves a bad taste in the mouth…
October 9, 2025 at 4:00 PM
Oh, Europe. Self-parody is so 2018.
How causality ate the world. I don’t see how causality is the key issue in psychology research, most of which is based on RCTs. Replicability crisis, yes a big issue. Generalizability out of the lab, yes. But causality? That hardly seems to be the crux.
Happy to announce that I'll give a talk on how we can make rigorous causal inference more mainstream 📈
You can sign up for the Zoom link here: tinyurl.com/CIIG-JuliaRo...
You can sign up for the Zoom link here: tinyurl.com/CIIG-JuliaRo...
October 6, 2025 at 2:06 PM
How causality ate the world. I don’t see how causality is the key issue in psychology research, most of which is based on RCTs. Replicability crisis, yes a big issue. Generalizability out of the lab, yes. But causality? That hardly seems to be the crux.
Reposted by Charlie Williams
[writing the constitution]
Benjamin Franklin: Write down "no dumb fucks as president"
Alexander Hamilton: Stop saying that
Benjamin Franklin: I'm tellin' you. You're gonna regret not writing that down
Benjamin Franklin: Write down "no dumb fucks as president"
Alexander Hamilton: Stop saying that
Benjamin Franklin: I'm tellin' you. You're gonna regret not writing that down
August 15, 2025 at 10:54 PM
[writing the constitution]
Benjamin Franklin: Write down "no dumb fucks as president"
Alexander Hamilton: Stop saying that
Benjamin Franklin: I'm tellin' you. You're gonna regret not writing that down
Benjamin Franklin: Write down "no dumb fucks as president"
Alexander Hamilton: Stop saying that
Benjamin Franklin: I'm tellin' you. You're gonna regret not writing that down
Reposted by Charlie Williams
“Technology will just get better”
idk but I liked the Internet better 25 years ago
idk but I liked the Internet better 25 years ago
June 20, 2025 at 1:56 AM
“Technology will just get better”
idk but I liked the Internet better 25 years ago
idk but I liked the Internet better 25 years ago
Reposted by Charlie Williams
The renewable energy transition goes very slowly, then all at once
June 3, 2025 at 2:50 AM
The renewable energy transition goes very slowly, then all at once
How did the hype get so far ahead of reality?
The relationship of AI to sentience is like the one of homeopathy to real medicine.
May 28, 2025 at 4:32 AM
How did the hype get so far ahead of reality?
It’s time for scientists to publicize the research that is being cancelled. Enough silence in hopes of evading the axe! Disease communities (and others) are organized & can be activated!
How is this not impeachable?
No other president ever would been allowed such a transparent and harmful vendetta.
/imagine being such an asshole you make me side with Harvard
No other president ever would been allowed such a transparent and harmful vendetta.
/imagine being such an asshole you make me side with Harvard
All NIH and NSF grants for my entire team--and for all of Harvard, I guess?--have been terminated.
As provocative as that sounds, the practical effect is probably not much. Everything was already frozen. 🤷♂️
On the upside, it makes tracking terminated grants easier. No more guesswork at Harvard!
As provocative as that sounds, the practical effect is probably not much. Everything was already frozen. 🤷♂️
On the upside, it makes tracking terminated grants easier. No more guesswork at Harvard!
May 17, 2025 at 6:50 AM
It’s time for scientists to publicize the research that is being cancelled. Enough silence in hopes of evading the axe! Disease communities (and others) are organized & can be activated!
Reposted by Charlie Williams
Large Language Models and their associated businesses are a $50 billion industry masquerading as a trillion-dollar panacea for a tech industry that’s lost the plot. The tech and business media must change their ways, or risk repeating these cycles forever.
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
April 28, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Large Language Models and their associated businesses are a $50 billion industry masquerading as a trillion-dollar panacea for a tech industry that’s lost the plot. The tech and business media must change their ways, or risk repeating these cycles forever.
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
Reposted by Charlie Williams
It is now actively illogical to act as if generative AI is a real movement. Analyst Josh Beck said last week that Amazon will only make *$5bn* from AI in 2025 - after spending $105bn in capex. And they're pulling back on data centers too. This isn't a revolution!
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
![Oh, shit! A report from Wells Fargo analysts (called "Data Centers: AWS Goes on Pause") says that Amazon has "paused a portion of its leasing discussions on the colocation side...[and while] it's not clear the magnitude of the pause...the positioning is similar to what [analysts have] heard recently from Microsoft, [that] they are digesting aggressive recent lease-up deals...pulling back from a pipeline of LOIs or SOQs."
Some asshole is going to say "LOIs and SOQs aren't a big deal," but they are. I wrote about it here.
"Digesting" in this case refers to when hyperscalers sit with their current capacity for a minute, and Wells Fargo adds that these periods typically last 6-12 months, though can be much shorter. It's not obvious how much capacity Amazon is walking away from, but they are walking away from capacity. It's happening.
But what if it wasn't just Amazon? Another report from friend of the newsletter (read: people I email occasionally asking for a PDF) analyst TD Cowen put out a report last week that, while titled in a way that suggested there wasn't a pull back, actually said there was.
Let's take a look at one damning quote:
...relative to the hyperscale demand backdrop at PTC, hyperscale demand has moderated a bit (driven by the Microsoft pullback and to a lesser extent Amazon, discussed below), particularly in Europe, 2) there has been a broader moderation in the urgency and speed with which the hyperscalers are looking to take down capacity, and 3) the number of large deals (i.e. +400MW deals) in the market appears to have moderated.
In plain English, this means "demand has come down, there's less urgency in building this stuff, and the market is slowing down. Cowen also added that it "...observed a moderation in the exuberance around the outlook for hyperscale demand which characterized the market this time last year."
Brother, isn't this meant to be the next big thing? We need more exuberance! Not less!](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:qc6xzgctorfsm35w6i3vdebx/bafkreig6slvxsazwqancvj7fkcj4qcg46n3t256dlhyohzhvp7mrtirtoa@jpeg)
April 28, 2025 at 5:11 PM
It is now actively illogical to act as if generative AI is a real movement. Analyst Josh Beck said last week that Amazon will only make *$5bn* from AI in 2025 - after spending $105bn in capex. And they're pulling back on data centers too. This isn't a revolution!
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
www.wheresyoured.at/reality-check/
Mark Halperin hasn't seen a "clever and invigorating joke" since the 2004 presidential election cycle.
Rufo: "these chats as a good investment of my time to radicalize tech elites who I thought were the most likely and high-impact new coalition partners for the right."
"Andreessen in 2022 asked
@RichardHanania to set up a group with smart conservatives, where Hanania saw Andreessen radicalize"
"Andreessen in 2022 asked
@RichardHanania to set up a group with smart conservatives, where Hanania saw Andreessen radicalize"
April 28, 2025 at 5:37 PM
Mark Halperin hasn't seen a "clever and invigorating joke" since the 2004 presidential election cycle.
We are definitely at peak market moment for “Andreesen seems brilliant for spending 20 hours a day on signal chats.” Gonna be a fast slide from here - joining Elon in the heap at the bottom.
I guess I just think anyone who says stuff like "The groupchats are the memetic upstream of mainstream opinion" should be stuffed in a locker and never let out.
These groupchats are only powerful because of the sheer concentration of wealth. Your crowd isn't brilliant or clever. You're just rich.
These groupchats are only powerful because of the sheer concentration of wealth. Your crowd isn't brilliant or clever. You're just rich.
April 28, 2025 at 5:32 PM
We are definitely at peak market moment for “Andreesen seems brilliant for spending 20 hours a day on signal chats.” Gonna be a fast slide from here - joining Elon in the heap at the bottom.
This is a good rundown of some research about how AI thinks. Big bags of heuristics do not “generalize” to new problems very well. AGI may be much farther away than industry leaders claim. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-...
We Now Know How AI ‘Thinks’—and It’s Barely Thinking at All
The vast ‘brains’ of artificial intelligence models can memorize endless lists of rules. That’s useful, but not how humans solve problems.
www.wsj.com
April 26, 2025 at 5:27 AM
This is a good rundown of some research about how AI thinks. Big bags of heuristics do not “generalize” to new problems very well. AGI may be much farther away than industry leaders claim. www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-...
Reposted by Charlie Williams
Cool graph. If you had asked me, I would not have correctly predicted that the slope was steepest for Latin America
April 24, 2025 at 4:32 PM
Cool graph. If you had asked me, I would not have correctly predicted that the slope was steepest for Latin America
Powerful. But not “intelligent.” A transformative technology. But not going to replace all human & organizational intelligence in a matter of years. We’re like the 18th C audiences mesmerized by batteries attached to twitching frog legs thinking the font of life had been discovered.
LLMs are nothing more than models of the distribution of the word forms in their training data, with weights modified by post-training to produce somewhat different distributions. Unless your use case requires a model of a distribution of word forms in text, indeed, they suck and aren't useful.
There are a lot of critiques of LLMs that I agree with but "they suck and aren't useful" doesn't really hold water.
I understand people not using them because of social, economic, and environmental concerns. And I also understand people using them because they can be very useful.
Thoughts?
I understand people not using them because of social, economic, and environmental concerns. And I also understand people using them because they can be very useful.
Thoughts?
April 24, 2025 at 6:27 PM
Powerful. But not “intelligent.” A transformative technology. But not going to replace all human & organizational intelligence in a matter of years. We’re like the 18th C audiences mesmerized by batteries attached to twitching frog legs thinking the font of life had been discovered.
I had not seen the revelation last month that Daniel Kahneman ended his life with medical assistance in 2024.
I wonder if it was at the same location in Switzerland where my mother ended her life this January. Reading the article I was back there, living her choice.
www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
I wonder if it was at the same location in Switzerland where my mother ended her life this January. Reading the article I was back there, living her choice.
www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
Essay | The Last Decision by the World’s Leading Thinker on Decisions
Shortly before Daniel Kahneman died last March, he emailed friends a message: He was choosing to end his own life in Switzerland. Some are still struggling with his choice.
www.wsj.com
April 14, 2025 at 4:22 PM
I had not seen the revelation last month that Daniel Kahneman ended his life with medical assistance in 2024.
I wonder if it was at the same location in Switzerland where my mother ended her life this January. Reading the article I was back there, living her choice.
www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
I wonder if it was at the same location in Switzerland where my mother ended her life this January. Reading the article I was back there, living her choice.
www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
Reposted by Charlie Williams
Not a lot of people know that manufacturing generates just 10% of U.S. GDP and employs 10% of workers.
Ag + mining is about 2% of GDP.
The rest comes from various services. The U.S. is a service economy like most other developed nations.
Ag + mining is about 2% of GDP.
The rest comes from various services. The U.S. is a service economy like most other developed nations.
April 8, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Not a lot of people know that manufacturing generates just 10% of U.S. GDP and employs 10% of workers.
Ag + mining is about 2% of GDP.
The rest comes from various services. The U.S. is a service economy like most other developed nations.
Ag + mining is about 2% of GDP.
The rest comes from various services. The U.S. is a service economy like most other developed nations.
So much bravery. So much integrity.
Corporate America fears wrath of Trump as it mulls tariffs response
https://www.ft.com/content/ce9559c0-039a-4e83-98dc-a087be8051ba
https://www.ft.com/content/ce9559c0-039a-4e83-98dc-a087be8051ba
Corporate America fears wrath of Trump as it mulls tariffs response
Executives unsure how far to go in re-engineering their businesses and hope they can lobby US president to ease policies
www.ft.com
April 5, 2025 at 12:39 PM
So much bravery. So much integrity.