Charles Franklin
@pollsandvotes.bsky.social
Director, Marquette Law School poll. Co-founder Pollster.com. Prof Emeritus UW-Madison. R nerd. Site: https://pollsandvotes.com
MULawPoll: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/
MULawPoll: https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/
Gallup Nov. Trump approval: 36% approve, 60% disapprove, a 5 point drop in approval and 6 point increase in disapproval since Oct. Several points below my approval trend across all polls which puts approval at 40.5%, disapproval at 56.1%
Here is Gallup approval history since FDR
Here is Gallup approval history since FDR
November 28, 2025 at 11:15 PM
Gallup Nov. Trump approval: 36% approve, 60% disapprove, a 5 point drop in approval and 6 point increase in disapproval since Oct. Several points below my approval trend across all polls which puts approval at 40.5%, disapproval at 56.1%
Here is Gallup approval history since FDR
Here is Gallup approval history since FDR
Trump's approval has declined in October and November, after holding pretty steady July-Sept. Steady decline Jan-Mar, then sharper after announcing tariffs in April, rose in May after backing off on tariffs. Then small decline in June. Current decline is across most pollsters.
November 28, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Trump's approval has declined in October and November, after holding pretty steady July-Sept. Steady decline Jan-Mar, then sharper after announcing tariffs in April, rose in May after backing off on tariffs. Then small decline in June. Current decline is across most pollsters.
Harry Enten on ACA tax credit extension, data from @MULawPoll national survey.
November 26, 2025 at 4:01 AM
Harry Enten on ACA tax credit extension, data from @MULawPoll national survey.
Trump approvals across topics. Topics ordered by average net approval (after overall).
November 26, 2025 at 3:30 AM
Trump approvals across topics. Topics ordered by average net approval (after overall).
Trump net favorability by race and ethnicity, 2022-25. Decline among Hispanic respondents in 2025 is notable after gains in 2023-24.
November 25, 2025 at 12:35 AM
Trump net favorability by race and ethnicity, 2022-25. Decline among Hispanic respondents in 2025 is notable after gains in 2023-24.
UMich Survey of Consumers sees rising concern about possible job loss, especially among the young.
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
November 21, 2025 at 8:28 PM
UMich Survey of Consumers sees rising concern about possible job loss, especially among the young.
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
www.sca.isr.umich.edu
U Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 in preliminary November data. That is just 0.3 higher than the low point of the Biden administration, 50.0, in June 2022 at the peak of the inflation surge. Down 29.9% year-over-year. www.sca.isr.umich.edu
November 7, 2025 at 6:11 PM
U Michigan consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 in preliminary November data. That is just 0.3 higher than the low point of the Biden administration, 50.0, in June 2022 at the peak of the inflation surge. Down 29.9% year-over-year. www.sca.isr.umich.edu
Dems do very well in VA. Win Gov by 14, AG by 5 (despite texting scandal), perhaps most impressive shift house of delegates from D 51-49 to D 64-36
Talk of NJ as swing state premature: Dem win Gov by nearly 13. Was supposed to be much closer
Surprise 2 PSC D wins in GA
most vote in but unofficial
Talk of NJ as swing state premature: Dem win Gov by nearly 13. Was supposed to be much closer
Surprise 2 PSC D wins in GA
most vote in but unofficial
November 5, 2025 at 3:52 AM
Dems do very well in VA. Win Gov by 14, AG by 5 (despite texting scandal), perhaps most impressive shift house of delegates from D 51-49 to D 64-36
Talk of NJ as swing state premature: Dem win Gov by nearly 13. Was supposed to be much closer
Surprise 2 PSC D wins in GA
most vote in but unofficial
Talk of NJ as swing state premature: Dem win Gov by nearly 13. Was supposed to be much closer
Surprise 2 PSC D wins in GA
most vote in but unofficial
Presidential approval, 1937-present. Data from Gallup polls.
October 18, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Presidential approval, 1937-present. Data from Gallup polls.
Informative map of where Obamacare/ACA enrollment grew the most from 2020-2025. From Wall Street Journal. Story, no paywall. www.wsj.com/health/healt...
October 8, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Informative map of where Obamacare/ACA enrollment grew the most from 2020-2025. From Wall Street Journal. Story, no paywall. www.wsj.com/health/healt...
See what 1041 Americans say they like & dislike about Trump and their biggest concerns. Click Shuffle Responses to see 5 at a time, page through at bottom right. Filter in the boxes, here for example Trump voters, Fox viewers who say "cost" is a concern. lubarcenter.shinyapps.io/mlspsc28-ope...
October 3, 2025 at 8:24 PM
See what 1041 Americans say they like & dislike about Trump and their biggest concerns. Click Shuffle Responses to see 5 at a time, page through at bottom right. Filter in the boxes, here for example Trump voters, Fox viewers who say "cost" is a concern. lubarcenter.shinyapps.io/mlspsc28-ope...
Who gets news from where and uses which social media apps? New @MULawPoll *national* survey takes a look overall and by party identification. See @jdjmke post on this at our @mulaw blog: law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/...
October 3, 2025 at 8:21 PM
Who gets news from where and uses which social media apps? New @MULawPoll *national* survey takes a look overall and by party identification. See @jdjmke post on this at our @mulaw blog: law.marquette.edu/facultyblog/...
Maybe this explains why I confuse Spotify so much. My two top plays of the week.
October 2, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Maybe this explains why I confuse Spotify so much. My two top plays of the week.
Large partisan differences on the effect of tariffs on the economy, though relatively little change over time. >50% of Reps say tariffs help. Those saying hurt the economy up slightly across partisanship; help economy down a bit with independents. @MULawPoll national surveys.
September 2, 2025 at 7:02 PM
Large partisan differences on the effect of tariffs on the economy, though relatively little change over time. >50% of Reps say tariffs help. Those saying hurt the economy up slightly across partisanship; help economy down a bit with independents. @MULawPoll national surveys.
Less confidence that Trump policies will decrease inflation, including among Republicans, while more now think his policies will increase inflation. Independents notably more likely to now say increase. @MULawPoll national surveys.
September 2, 2025 at 6:56 PM
Less confidence that Trump policies will decrease inflation, including among Republicans, while more now think his policies will increase inflation. Independents notably more likely to now say increase. @MULawPoll national surveys.
Three looks at how partisanship drives our perceptions of reality 1) Right direction or wrong track: huge shift 2) State of the economy: now much better for Reps, worse for Dems (real economy hasn't shifted that much) and 3) personal finances, more modest changes but still some.
August 31, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Three looks at how partisanship drives our perceptions of reality 1) Right direction or wrong track: huge shift 2) State of the economy: now much better for Reps, worse for Dems (real economy hasn't shifted that much) and 3) personal finances, more modest changes but still some.
Here is the Wisconsin party favorability by party ID. Don't have congressional party approval for Wisconsin.
Similar pattern and discrepancy. Dems less favorable to their party than Reps are to theirs.
Similar pattern and discrepancy. Dems less favorable to their party than Reps are to theirs.
August 28, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Here is the Wisconsin party favorability by party ID. Don't have congressional party approval for Wisconsin.
Similar pattern and discrepancy. Dems less favorable to their party than Reps are to theirs.
Similar pattern and discrepancy. Dems less favorable to their party than Reps are to theirs.
Did an interview with Milwaukee CBS58 @AJBayatpour on views of parties. Reps doing better than Dems for both congressional party approval and party favorability. Key difference: Dems much less happy with their party than Reps with theirs. Disappointed Dems. National data.
August 27, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Did an interview with Milwaukee CBS58 @AJBayatpour on views of parties. Reps doing better than Dems for both congressional party approval and party favorability. Key difference: Dems much less happy with their party than Reps with theirs. Disappointed Dems. National data.
Reps remain solid Rep but Dems drifting away to Ind.
My @MULawPoll asked party ID early in 2022. In polls with the same people since then we re-ask party ID. The chart shows PID in subsequent polls by the respondent's PID in 2022.
My @MULawPoll asked party ID early in 2022. In polls with the same people since then we re-ask party ID. The chart shows PID in subsequent polls by the respondent's PID in 2022.
August 20, 2025 at 10:05 PM
Reps remain solid Rep but Dems drifting away to Ind.
My @MULawPoll asked party ID early in 2022. In polls with the same people since then we re-ask party ID. The chart shows PID in subsequent polls by the respondent's PID in 2022.
My @MULawPoll asked party ID early in 2022. In polls with the same people since then we re-ask party ID. The chart shows PID in subsequent polls by the respondent's PID in 2022.
Found on an old backup drive. Once iconic, now requiring explanation to students.
August 11, 2025 at 11:29 PM
Found on an old backup drive. Once iconic, now requiring explanation to students.
Hi Josh. NYT today is 44-53. Silver is 43.8-52.7. Morris is 42.1-54.1. I’m at 43.6-53.1. 3 round to 44-53, 1 to 42-54, so there is a lot of agreement. I DO smooth the trend more than they do. More small wiggle in theirs than mine. I think wiggle is noise so I reduce it. Elliott has more recent drop
August 6, 2025 at 7:12 PM
Hi Josh. NYT today is 44-53. Silver is 43.8-52.7. Morris is 42.1-54.1. I’m at 43.6-53.1. 3 round to 44-53, 1 to 42-54, so there is a lot of agreement. I DO smooth the trend more than they do. More small wiggle in theirs than mine. I think wiggle is noise so I reduce it. Elliott has more recent drop
Reality check. Headlines describe Trump approval: "crashing", "record low", "major decline". These are driven by cherry picking single polls The polling average HAS shown a decline from Jan but nothing that justifies "crashing". Apr low, small recovery, recent slip Now 43.6-52.1
August 6, 2025 at 5:35 PM
Reality check. Headlines describe Trump approval: "crashing", "record low", "major decline". These are driven by cherry picking single polls The polling average HAS shown a decline from Jan but nothing that justifies "crashing". Apr low, small recovery, recent slip Now 43.6-52.1
Hot summer refreshment.
July 5, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Hot summer refreshment.
Here you go. Crosstabs for May are at www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0bq8s...
June 18, 2025 at 6:07 PM
Here you go. Crosstabs for May are at www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0bq8s...
The Supreme Court today upheld Tennessee's ban on transgender treatment for minors with a 6-3 majority. In @MULawPoll national surveys this year about 70% favor this outcome with about 30% opposed. Independents and Democrats became slightly more opposed in May.
June 18, 2025 at 5:42 PM
The Supreme Court today upheld Tennessee's ban on transgender treatment for minors with a 6-3 majority. In @MULawPoll national surveys this year about 70% favor this outcome with about 30% opposed. Independents and Democrats became slightly more opposed in May.