Paul Kohlenberg
@pkohlenberg.bsky.social
All views here in personal capacity.
Now: Asia/China @Heinrich-Böll-Foundation 🇩🇪 Berlin.
Previously: Director @hbs/hbf China Office 🇨🇳; Researcher German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Alum: FU Berlin, Warwick, IUP/Berkeley, Oxford.
Now: Asia/China @Heinrich-Böll-Foundation 🇩🇪 Berlin.
Previously: Director @hbs/hbf China Office 🇨🇳; Researcher German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
Alum: FU Berlin, Warwick, IUP/Berkeley, Oxford.
"China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, (...) Chinese exports are on track to reach another record this year." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
November 4, 2025 at 11:20 AM
"China has offset the decline from America with breathtaking speed. Shipments to other parts of the world have surged this year, (...) Chinese exports are on track to reach another record this year." www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
...and on that note:
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
June 6, 2025 at 6:13 AM
...and on that note:
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
"A senior European official involved in the negotiations said “dairy overall” was a “no-go” area."
June 3, 2025 at 9:07 AM
"A senior European official involved in the negotiations said “dairy overall” was a “no-go” area."
calendar.boell.de/en/event/sou...
➡️ Online event
Wednesday, 04. June 2025 9:30 am – 11:00 am
Elections in South Korea
Geopolitical dynamics and domestic course-setting
➡️ Online event
Wednesday, 04. June 2025 9:30 am – 11:00 am
Elections in South Korea
Geopolitical dynamics and domestic course-setting
May 26, 2025 at 12:36 PM
calendar.boell.de/en/event/sou...
➡️ Online event
Wednesday, 04. June 2025 9:30 am – 11:00 am
Elections in South Korea
Geopolitical dynamics and domestic course-setting
➡️ Online event
Wednesday, 04. June 2025 9:30 am – 11:00 am
Elections in South Korea
Geopolitical dynamics and domestic course-setting
If you ask me why the "Global South" does not see Germany/Europe as a partner & why so few actors there accept the proposition that "systemic conflict with China" is about defending legal norms, moral principles & values - then these two screenshots will likely be part of the answer for a long time.
May 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
If you ask me why the "Global South" does not see Germany/Europe as a partner & why so few actors there accept the proposition that "systemic conflict with China" is about defending legal norms, moral principles & values - then these two screenshots will likely be part of the answer for a long time.
"If our automotive industry wants to build on old successes, it has to become more Chinese."
(Dudenhöffer in Südkurier today.)
It will be crucial to differentiate btw becoming "more Chinese" by emulating & cooperating👍 vs. integrating & licensing👎. Amples examples for both exist.
But crucially:
(Dudenhöffer in Südkurier today.)
It will be crucial to differentiate btw becoming "more Chinese" by emulating & cooperating👍 vs. integrating & licensing👎. Amples examples for both exist.
But crucially:
May 6, 2025 at 7:57 AM
"If our automotive industry wants to build on old successes, it has to become more Chinese."
(Dudenhöffer in Südkurier today.)
It will be crucial to differentiate btw becoming "more Chinese" by emulating & cooperating👍 vs. integrating & licensing👎. Amples examples for both exist.
But crucially:
(Dudenhöffer in Südkurier today.)
It will be crucial to differentiate btw becoming "more Chinese" by emulating & cooperating👍 vs. integrating & licensing👎. Amples examples for both exist.
But crucially:
Fittingly, Handelsblatt, Germany's biggest business-daily states:
"China: From profit-guarantor to risk"
(China: Vom Profitgaranten zum Risiko) in today's edition.
"China: From profit-guarantor to risk"
(China: Vom Profitgaranten zum Risiko) in today's edition.
May 5, 2025 at 11:54 AM
Fittingly, Handelsblatt, Germany's biggest business-daily states:
"China: From profit-guarantor to risk"
(China: Vom Profitgaranten zum Risiko) in today's edition.
"China: From profit-guarantor to risk"
(China: Vom Profitgaranten zum Risiko) in today's edition.
"Re-risking" instead of de-risking?
Survey conducted by the Bavarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (BIHK) among almost 900 Bavarian companies:
These Companies see significantly better prospects for their business with China than before the US election.
www.bihk.de/presse/detai...
Survey conducted by the Bavarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (BIHK) among almost 900 Bavarian companies:
These Companies see significantly better prospects for their business with China than before the US election.
www.bihk.de/presse/detai...
May 3, 2025 at 10:20 AM
"Re-risking" instead of de-risking?
Survey conducted by the Bavarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (BIHK) among almost 900 Bavarian companies:
These Companies see significantly better prospects for their business with China than before the US election.
www.bihk.de/presse/detai...
Survey conducted by the Bavarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (BIHK) among almost 900 Bavarian companies:
These Companies see significantly better prospects for their business with China than before the US election.
www.bihk.de/presse/detai...
In open challenge to Vatican authority China Unilaterally 'elects' two Bishops Amid Vatican Sede Vacante
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
One Bishop, in particular, has history of aligning himself with the Communist Party and a role in banning minors from attending Mass.
Watch 2 different plot lines:
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
One Bishop, in particular, has history of aligning himself with the Communist Party and a role in banning minors from attending Mass.
Watch 2 different plot lines:
May 2, 2025 at 8:25 AM
In open challenge to Vatican authority China Unilaterally 'elects' two Bishops Amid Vatican Sede Vacante
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
One Bishop, in particular, has history of aligning himself with the Communist Party and a role in banning minors from attending Mass.
Watch 2 different plot lines:
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...
One Bishop, in particular, has history of aligning himself with the Communist Party and a role in banning minors from attending Mass.
Watch 2 different plot lines:
Marco Rubio, now interim national security adviser to Trump besides being Secretary of state, acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, acting archivist for the National Archives and Records Administration.
Re-reading this from March:
newrepublic.com/article/1930...
Re-reading this from March:
newrepublic.com/article/1930...
May 2, 2025 at 6:36 AM
Marco Rubio, now interim national security adviser to Trump besides being Secretary of state, acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development, acting archivist for the National Archives and Records Administration.
Re-reading this from March:
newrepublic.com/article/1930...
Re-reading this from March:
newrepublic.com/article/1930...
UNCTAD Review of maritime 🚢 transport 2024: Liner Shipping Connectivity Index
Improved ranking of China 🇨🇳 due to increases in ship sizes, deployed capacity, number of service providers and weekly calls.
Improved ranking of China 🇨🇳 due to increases in ship sizes, deployed capacity, number of service providers and weekly calls.
April 30, 2025 at 1:47 PM
UNCTAD Review of maritime 🚢 transport 2024: Liner Shipping Connectivity Index
Improved ranking of China 🇨🇳 due to increases in ship sizes, deployed capacity, number of service providers and weekly calls.
Improved ranking of China 🇨🇳 due to increases in ship sizes, deployed capacity, number of service providers and weekly calls.
April 30, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Re Tariffs / trade war:
China rather dependent on American-made cancer treatments. U.S. also supplies China with over 40% of China’s imports of albumin, a protein extracted from human blood which is used to make medicines.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
China rather dependent on American-made cancer treatments. U.S. also supplies China with over 40% of China’s imports of albumin, a protein extracted from human blood which is used to make medicines.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
April 27, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Re Tariffs / trade war:
China rather dependent on American-made cancer treatments. U.S. also supplies China with over 40% of China’s imports of albumin, a protein extracted from human blood which is used to make medicines.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
China rather dependent on American-made cancer treatments. U.S. also supplies China with over 40% of China’s imports of albumin, a protein extracted from human blood which is used to make medicines.
www.economist.com/china/2025/0...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I talked to U.S. (West Coast) port officials last December. Additional duties on ship to shore cranes make no strategic sense. No U.S. industry for the equipment exists.
I talked to U.S. (West Coast) port officials last December. Additional duties on ship to shore cranes make no strategic sense. No U.S. industry for the equipment exists.
April 24, 2025 at 12:38 PM
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
I talked to U.S. (West Coast) port officials last December. Additional duties on ship to shore cranes make no strategic sense. No U.S. industry for the equipment exists.
I talked to U.S. (West Coast) port officials last December. Additional duties on ship to shore cranes make no strategic sense. No U.S. industry for the equipment exists.
Not entirely new, but China's phraseology of being an
"enabling great power" (赋能型大国)
has received continued attention in the People's Daily.
politics.people.com.cn/n1/2025/0311...
Was used in Wang Yi's speech in Munich.
"enabling great power" (赋能型大国)
has received continued attention in the People's Daily.
politics.people.com.cn/n1/2025/0311...
Was used in Wang Yi's speech in Munich.
April 24, 2025 at 10:53 AM
Not entirely new, but China's phraseology of being an
"enabling great power" (赋能型大国)
has received continued attention in the People's Daily.
politics.people.com.cn/n1/2025/0311...
Was used in Wang Yi's speech in Munich.
"enabling great power" (赋能型大国)
has received continued attention in the People's Daily.
politics.people.com.cn/n1/2025/0311...
Was used in Wang Yi's speech in Munich.
NYT: U.S. jobs affected by retaliatory tariffs
March 18, 2025 at 8:57 PM
NYT: U.S. jobs affected by retaliatory tariffs
The UK is hoping to shape a new global axis in favour of climate action along with China and a host of developing countries...
Ed Miliband: "China is responsible for more emissions than the US, EU, India and UK, yet I am the first energy secretary since 2017 to visit China."
Ed Miliband: "China is responsible for more emissions than the US, EU, India and UK, yet I am the first energy secretary since 2017 to visit China."
March 14, 2025 at 11:34 AM
The UK is hoping to shape a new global axis in favour of climate action along with China and a host of developing countries...
Ed Miliband: "China is responsible for more emissions than the US, EU, India and UK, yet I am the first energy secretary since 2017 to visit China."
Ed Miliband: "China is responsible for more emissions than the US, EU, India and UK, yet I am the first energy secretary since 2017 to visit China."
The decision by the Commission to restore the 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US will take immediate effect on 1 April.
March 12, 2025 at 5:50 AM
The decision by the Commission to restore the 2018 and 2020 countermeasures against the US will take immediate effect on 1 April.
Tesla sales in Germany plunged by 59.5% in January 2025 and 76.3% in February.
March 11, 2025 at 10:05 AM
Tesla sales in Germany plunged by 59.5% in January 2025 and 76.3% in February.
Zhang Guotao was a *founding member* of the CCP. His life is wild: knew Mao from Peking University. Tried to contest Mao for leadership during the long March. Defected to the Kuomintang in 1938, exile in Hong Kong, emigrated to Canada, converted to Christianity.
Super interesting , but...
Super interesting , but...
March 6, 2025 at 12:59 PM
Zhang Guotao was a *founding member* of the CCP. His life is wild: knew Mao from Peking University. Tried to contest Mao for leadership during the long March. Defected to the Kuomintang in 1938, exile in Hong Kong, emigrated to Canada, converted to Christianity.
Super interesting , but...
Super interesting , but...
March 5, 2025 at 9:55 AM
China "unusually welcoming to Tesla"
"Musk himself is probably being very cautious in using his influence over Trump," Wu said. "If he pushes Trump too hard on China-related issues, it could strain their relationship and ultimately diminish his influence."
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
"Musk himself is probably being very cautious in using his influence over Trump," Wu said. "If he pushes Trump too hard on China-related issues, it could strain their relationship and ultimately diminish his influence."
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
January 22, 2025 at 12:30 PM
China "unusually welcoming to Tesla"
"Musk himself is probably being very cautious in using his influence over Trump," Wu said. "If he pushes Trump too hard on China-related issues, it could strain their relationship and ultimately diminish his influence."
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
"Musk himself is probably being very cautious in using his influence over Trump," Wu said. "If he pushes Trump too hard on China-related issues, it could strain their relationship and ultimately diminish his influence."
asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
The Economist right on the Money:
Trump ‘’has to assign himself credit for things that are truthfully better than Americans may yet realise. America’s economy is the envy of the world."
Maybe the only way to get Trump to feel as a stakeholder in 'global order' ideas.
Trump ‘’has to assign himself credit for things that are truthfully better than Americans may yet realise. America’s economy is the envy of the world."
Maybe the only way to get Trump to feel as a stakeholder in 'global order' ideas.
January 22, 2025 at 8:04 AM
The Economist right on the Money:
Trump ‘’has to assign himself credit for things that are truthfully better than Americans may yet realise. America’s economy is the envy of the world."
Maybe the only way to get Trump to feel as a stakeholder in 'global order' ideas.
Trump ‘’has to assign himself credit for things that are truthfully better than Americans may yet realise. America’s economy is the envy of the world."
Maybe the only way to get Trump to feel as a stakeholder in 'global order' ideas.
Chinese MOFA press conference (today):
Question: China considering lifting the sanctions against Rubio?
Answer: China will firmly safeguard its national interests ..., while it is necessary for high-level officials of China and the United States to maintain contacts in an appropriate manner.
So 🤷♂️
Question: China considering lifting the sanctions against Rubio?
Answer: China will firmly safeguard its national interests ..., while it is necessary for high-level officials of China and the United States to maintain contacts in an appropriate manner.
So 🤷♂️
January 21, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Chinese MOFA press conference (today):
Question: China considering lifting the sanctions against Rubio?
Answer: China will firmly safeguard its national interests ..., while it is necessary for high-level officials of China and the United States to maintain contacts in an appropriate manner.
So 🤷♂️
Question: China considering lifting the sanctions against Rubio?
Answer: China will firmly safeguard its national interests ..., while it is necessary for high-level officials of China and the United States to maintain contacts in an appropriate manner.
So 🤷♂️
Today:
"President Xi stressed his readiness to work with President Putin and guide China-Russia relations to a new height in 2025..."
"He underscored the need...to deepen strategic coordination, firmly support each other, and defend their legitimate interests."
www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/z...
"President Xi stressed his readiness to work with President Putin and guide China-Russia relations to a new height in 2025..."
"He underscored the need...to deepen strategic coordination, firmly support each other, and defend their legitimate interests."
www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/z...
January 21, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Today:
"President Xi stressed his readiness to work with President Putin and guide China-Russia relations to a new height in 2025..."
"He underscored the need...to deepen strategic coordination, firmly support each other, and defend their legitimate interests."
www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/z...
"President Xi stressed his readiness to work with President Putin and guide China-Russia relations to a new height in 2025..."
"He underscored the need...to deepen strategic coordination, firmly support each other, and defend their legitimate interests."
www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/z...