Patrick Driessen
@pdriessentax.bsky.social
Major interest in tax policy but understand it's just one part of puzzle. Learning a lot from u-12, u-10, u-9, u-3, and u-2.
"Dilution" in the sense of a Pillar 2 bite on USMNEs.
With regard to the many Pillar 2 accommodations for the U.S., counting U.S. state/local corporate income taxes toward the 15% is the one I most agree with. [Though one could imagine OECD telling central govts to handle that issue internally.]
With regard to the many Pillar 2 accommodations for the U.S., counting U.S. state/local corporate income taxes toward the 15% is the one I most agree with. [Though one could imagine OECD telling central govts to handle that issue internally.]
October 22, 2025 at 5:14 PM
"Dilution" in the sense of a Pillar 2 bite on USMNEs.
With regard to the many Pillar 2 accommodations for the U.S., counting U.S. state/local corporate income taxes toward the 15% is the one I most agree with. [Though one could imagine OECD telling central govts to handle that issue internally.]
With regard to the many Pillar 2 accommodations for the U.S., counting U.S. state/local corporate income taxes toward the 15% is the one I most agree with. [Though one could imagine OECD telling central govts to handle that issue internally.]
Just thru end of 2024, the OECD had already diluted Pillar 2 a lot for the U.S. - counting U.S. state corp taxes toward 15%, overlooking accel depreciation and expensing, flexing on tradable IRA credits, ignoring US BEAT, plus a lot of transition relief.
We're down to last few pieces of the loaf.
We're down to last few pieces of the loaf.
October 22, 2025 at 4:15 PM
Just thru end of 2024, the OECD had already diluted Pillar 2 a lot for the U.S. - counting U.S. state corp taxes toward 15%, overlooking accel depreciation and expensing, flexing on tradable IRA credits, ignoring US BEAT, plus a lot of transition relief.
We're down to last few pieces of the loaf.
We're down to last few pieces of the loaf.
The context is that smaller nations that want more source taxation need to do so via collective action, otherwise they'll be bullied by US (which wants its blended NCTI to rule) or get undercut by other nations.
A robust Pillar 2 with no exceptions allows these nations to collect that tax. 2/2
A robust Pillar 2 with no exceptions allows these nations to collect that tax. 2/2
October 22, 2025 at 3:30 PM
The context is that smaller nations that want more source taxation need to do so via collective action, otherwise they'll be bullied by US (which wants its blended NCTI to rule) or get undercut by other nations.
A robust Pillar 2 with no exceptions allows these nations to collect that tax. 2/2
A robust Pillar 2 with no exceptions allows these nations to collect that tax. 2/2
As with the US head start on P2 with GILTI, the US with its citizen-based/worldwide/exit taxes has head start on any global personal min tax.
It would a good first step if, say, France, Netherlands and others simply raise their billionaire income tax rates to 10%. Then a stage 2 could follow. 2/2
It would a good first step if, say, France, Netherlands and others simply raise their billionaire income tax rates to 10%. Then a stage 2 could follow. 2/2
October 16, 2025 at 3:17 PM
As with the US head start on P2 with GILTI, the US with its citizen-based/worldwide/exit taxes has head start on any global personal min tax.
It would a good first step if, say, France, Netherlands and others simply raise their billionaire income tax rates to 10%. Then a stage 2 could follow. 2/2
It would a good first step if, say, France, Netherlands and others simply raise their billionaire income tax rates to 10%. Then a stage 2 could follow. 2/2
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
(7/8) Together with the OBBBA, this fiscal switch of lower income tax revenues, higher tariff revenues, and spending cuts targeting poorer Americans will leave most Americans with lower after-tax incomes.
September 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM
(7/8) Together with the OBBBA, this fiscal switch of lower income tax revenues, higher tariff revenues, and spending cuts targeting poorer Americans will leave most Americans with lower after-tax incomes.
Cool. I appreciate that you were on to immigration-labor-supply early on.
This is all part of broad concern about many fluid econ baselines because so much (tariffs, deportation, IRS defunding, dereg) has been done in 6 mos by Admin policy. I'm worried that responsibility isn't/won't-be assigned.
This is all part of broad concern about many fluid econ baselines because so much (tariffs, deportation, IRS defunding, dereg) has been done in 6 mos by Admin policy. I'm worried that responsibility isn't/won't-be assigned.
September 5, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Cool. I appreciate that you were on to immigration-labor-supply early on.
This is all part of broad concern about many fluid econ baselines because so much (tariffs, deportation, IRS defunding, dereg) has been done in 6 mos by Admin policy. I'm worried that responsibility isn't/won't-be assigned.
This is all part of broad concern about many fluid econ baselines because so much (tariffs, deportation, IRS defunding, dereg) has been done in 6 mos by Admin policy. I'm worried that responsibility isn't/won't-be assigned.
Just checking @wendyedelberg.bsky.social & other economists (incl. J. Kolko on X) using immigration-adjusted "breakeven" jobs concept:
While "breakeven" may calm recession jitters, isn't it based on economy that's shrinking compared to 2024 projections? So "breakeven" isn't a normative take, right?
While "breakeven" may calm recession jitters, isn't it based on economy that's shrinking compared to 2024 projections? So "breakeven" isn't a normative take, right?
September 5, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Just checking @wendyedelberg.bsky.social & other economists (incl. J. Kolko on X) using immigration-adjusted "breakeven" jobs concept:
While "breakeven" may calm recession jitters, isn't it based on economy that's shrinking compared to 2024 projections? So "breakeven" isn't a normative take, right?
While "breakeven" may calm recession jitters, isn't it based on economy that's shrinking compared to 2024 projections? So "breakeven" isn't a normative take, right?
For example, about 1/2 of the 1979-2019 improvement in CBO's lowest income quintile is from Medicaid & CHIP (cite below).
If this in-kind healthcare really is of little value, it also would affect the view that the Census Official Poverty Measure overstates poverty. 2/2
www.cbo.gov/system/files...
If this in-kind healthcare really is of little value, it also would affect the view that the Census Official Poverty Measure overstates poverty. 2/2
www.cbo.gov/system/files...
www.cbo.gov
August 3, 2025 at 11:11 PM
For example, about 1/2 of the 1979-2019 improvement in CBO's lowest income quintile is from Medicaid & CHIP (cite below).
If this in-kind healthcare really is of little value, it also would affect the view that the Census Official Poverty Measure overstates poverty. 2/2
www.cbo.gov/system/files...
If this in-kind healthcare really is of little value, it also would affect the view that the Census Official Poverty Measure overstates poverty. 2/2
www.cbo.gov/system/files...
Actually, am pretty sure FACT Coalition killed the revenge tax, so kudos.
Section 899 wouldn't have been (and wouldn't be, because we know it's still being held in reserve) very good for transparency with all those complicated penalties, and then with all that FDI exiting the U.S. to new locations.
Section 899 wouldn't have been (and wouldn't be, because we know it's still being held in reserve) very good for transparency with all those complicated penalties, and then with all that FDI exiting the U.S. to new locations.
July 10, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Actually, am pretty sure FACT Coalition killed the revenge tax, so kudos.
Section 899 wouldn't have been (and wouldn't be, because we know it's still being held in reserve) very good for transparency with all those complicated penalties, and then with all that FDI exiting the U.S. to new locations.
Section 899 wouldn't have been (and wouldn't be, because we know it's still being held in reserve) very good for transparency with all those complicated penalties, and then with all that FDI exiting the U.S. to new locations.
Having no knowledge of standing, I wonder if indexing capital gains, but not interest expense and income, doesn't discriminate against debt-holders, for example, the quite sympathetic retirement funds of teachers or parsons.
This is if indexing won't apply to interest: that'd be a different thing.
This is if indexing won't apply to interest: that'd be a different thing.
July 10, 2025 at 2:55 PM
Having no knowledge of standing, I wonder if indexing capital gains, but not interest expense and income, doesn't discriminate against debt-holders, for example, the quite sympathetic retirement funds of teachers or parsons.
This is if indexing won't apply to interest: that'd be a different thing.
This is if indexing won't apply to interest: that'd be a different thing.
E.g., unfriendly sovereign funds with indirect US T-bill holdings probably not bothered by big out-year US federal deficits.
These deficits weaken US policy flexibility and US has no choice but to pay interest (despite threats of that). Maybe this is why bond market hasn't gone more ballistic. 2/2
These deficits weaken US policy flexibility and US has no choice but to pay interest (despite threats of that). Maybe this is why bond market hasn't gone more ballistic. 2/2
July 6, 2025 at 5:29 PM
E.g., unfriendly sovereign funds with indirect US T-bill holdings probably not bothered by big out-year US federal deficits.
These deficits weaken US policy flexibility and US has no choice but to pay interest (despite threats of that). Maybe this is why bond market hasn't gone more ballistic. 2/2
These deficits weaken US policy flexibility and US has no choice but to pay interest (despite threats of that). Maybe this is why bond market hasn't gone more ballistic. 2/2
(3) Long-term investor psych: (a) 899 retaliation (tho no longer in OBBBA); (b) Big pulling of rug on energy credits;
(4) A Pillar 2 carveout for US that occurred outside OBBBA.
My guess is most important macro analysis will be next CBO baseline update, not these piecemeal OBBBA macro things. 2/2
(4) A Pillar 2 carveout for US that occurred outside OBBBA.
My guess is most important macro analysis will be next CBO baseline update, not these piecemeal OBBBA macro things. 2/2
July 6, 2025 at 2:29 PM
(3) Long-term investor psych: (a) 899 retaliation (tho no longer in OBBBA); (b) Big pulling of rug on energy credits;
(4) A Pillar 2 carveout for US that occurred outside OBBBA.
My guess is most important macro analysis will be next CBO baseline update, not these piecemeal OBBBA macro things. 2/2
(4) A Pillar 2 carveout for US that occurred outside OBBBA.
My guess is most important macro analysis will be next CBO baseline update, not these piecemeal OBBBA macro things. 2/2