Patrick Driessen
@pdriessentax.bsky.social
Major interest in tax policy but understand it's just one part of puzzle. Learning a lot from u-12, u-10, u-9, u-3, and u-2.
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
🥹 Afghan women who escaped Taliban slavery have formed a football team in Australia. Today, in Morocco, they are making their debut in official FIFA friendly matches under the Afghan flag.
October 26, 2025 at 6:39 PM
🥹 Afghan women who escaped Taliban slavery have formed a football team in Australia. Today, in Morocco, they are making their debut in official FIFA friendly matches under the Afghan flag.
The US wants an OECD Pillar 2 carveout in order to preserve opportunities for double-non-taxation of USMNEs under NCTI (prev. GILTI) blending. (Though blending also hurts investment in US too!)
If the OECD folds, then maybe OECD should move out of way for UN tax effort. 1/2
taxnotes.co/4obqq04
If the OECD folds, then maybe OECD should move out of way for UN tax effort. 1/2
taxnotes.co/4obqq04
taxnotes.co
October 22, 2025 at 3:30 PM
The US wants an OECD Pillar 2 carveout in order to preserve opportunities for double-non-taxation of USMNEs under NCTI (prev. GILTI) blending. (Though blending also hurts investment in US too!)
If the OECD folds, then maybe OECD should move out of way for UN tax effort. 1/2
taxnotes.co/4obqq04
If the OECD folds, then maybe OECD should move out of way for UN tax effort. 1/2
taxnotes.co/4obqq04
It's easy to be skeptical about a global personal min tax: absence of precedent, int'l fiscal cooperation seems to be dying in 2025, e.g., P2 troubles, etc.
But note that US, even with (only) a 10% income tax rate on billionaires, has head start⬇️(G20, 2024). So any lift would be easier for US. 1/2
But note that US, even with (only) a 10% income tax rate on billionaires, has head start⬇️(G20, 2024). So any lift would be easier for US. 1/2
October 16, 2025 at 3:17 PM
It's easy to be skeptical about a global personal min tax: absence of precedent, int'l fiscal cooperation seems to be dying in 2025, e.g., P2 troubles, etc.
But note that US, even with (only) a 10% income tax rate on billionaires, has head start⬇️(G20, 2024). So any lift would be easier for US. 1/2
But note that US, even with (only) a 10% income tax rate on billionaires, has head start⬇️(G20, 2024). So any lift would be easier for US. 1/2
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
(7/8) Together with the OBBBA, this fiscal switch of lower income tax revenues, higher tariff revenues, and spending cuts targeting poorer Americans will leave most Americans with lower after-tax incomes.
September 24, 2025 at 5:34 PM
(7/8) Together with the OBBBA, this fiscal switch of lower income tax revenues, higher tariff revenues, and spending cuts targeting poorer Americans will leave most Americans with lower after-tax incomes.
This wouldn't be happening without OBBBA. The economic damage from >$200B targeting, incl. population loss, needs to be reflected in economic assessments of OBBBA.
[Reminder this econ focus isn't meant to diminish important moral issues with targeting at-risk immigrants.]
bsky.app/profile/wash...
[Reminder this econ focus isn't meant to diminish important moral issues with targeting at-risk immigrants.]
bsky.app/profile/wash...
Exclusive: ICE is seeking new office spaces in hundreds of locations across the United States to support plans to hire thousands of new lawyers and immigration enforcement officers, according to records obtained by The Post.
ICE seeks hundreds of new offices across U.S. as agency expands
The Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency is undergoing a massive expansion, with plans to open hundreds of new offices for thousands of new employees.
wapo.st
September 19, 2025 at 2:15 PM
This wouldn't be happening without OBBBA. The economic damage from >$200B targeting, incl. population loss, needs to be reflected in economic assessments of OBBBA.
[Reminder this econ focus isn't meant to diminish important moral issues with targeting at-risk immigrants.]
bsky.app/profile/wash...
[Reminder this econ focus isn't meant to diminish important moral issues with targeting at-risk immigrants.]
bsky.app/profile/wash...
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
I'm mom to a (lovely) autistic child & so tired of this unscientific, mother-blaming rhetoric.
Evidence shows Tylenol doesn't cause autism (& vaccines don't, either).
People have blamed autism on moms' choices for nearly 100 yrs, making their challenges even harder.
www.npr.org/2016/09/09/4...
Evidence shows Tylenol doesn't cause autism (& vaccines don't, either).
People have blamed autism on moms' choices for nearly 100 yrs, making their challenges even harder.
www.npr.org/2016/09/09/4...
September 5, 2025 at 8:31 PM
I'm mom to a (lovely) autistic child & so tired of this unscientific, mother-blaming rhetoric.
Evidence shows Tylenol doesn't cause autism (& vaccines don't, either).
People have blamed autism on moms' choices for nearly 100 yrs, making their challenges even harder.
www.npr.org/2016/09/09/4...
Evidence shows Tylenol doesn't cause autism (& vaccines don't, either).
People have blamed autism on moms' choices for nearly 100 yrs, making their challenges even harder.
www.npr.org/2016/09/09/4...
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
Racial Capitalism and International Tax Law: The Story of Global Jim Crow (http://bit.ly/3JG8CLP) digs deep into the technical complexities of the global tax system (bet you didn't even know there was one!).
September 4, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Racial Capitalism and International Tax Law: The Story of Global Jim Crow (http://bit.ly/3JG8CLP) digs deep into the technical complexities of the global tax system (bet you didn't even know there was one!).
The article below says OBBBA healthcare cuts were partially motivated by a Paragon assertion that "for most people, insurance coverage has little or no impact on objective measures of health."
If assertion is correct, it means income inequality is much worse. 1/2
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/h...
If assertion is correct, it means income inequality is much worse. 1/2
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/h...
The 2 Beliefs Driving Conservative Health Care Policy
www.nytimes.com
August 3, 2025 at 11:11 PM
The article below says OBBBA healthcare cuts were partially motivated by a Paragon assertion that "for most people, insurance coverage has little or no impact on objective measures of health."
If assertion is correct, it means income inequality is much worse. 1/2
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/h...
If assertion is correct, it means income inequality is much worse. 1/2
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/h...
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
New from FACT Coalition - More America Last than America First. Our latest policy brief analyzes the HUGE tax cut for America’s largest corporations in the just passed reconciliation bill, costing nearly $170 billion in public revenues over the coming decade. thefactcoalition.org/policy-brief...
July 15, 2025 at 9:21 PM
New from FACT Coalition - More America Last than America First. Our latest policy brief analyzes the HUGE tax cut for America’s largest corporations in the just passed reconciliation bill, costing nearly $170 billion in public revenues over the coming decade. thefactcoalition.org/policy-brief...
This is must-read, thank you EPI.
I remain puzzled that we didn't hear more about econ effects of OBBBA's targeting of at-risk immigrants, esp. from govt groups that had models equipped for that. For sure, part of story seems OBBBA sponsors didn't wait for these results.
bsky.app/profile/benz...
I remain puzzled that we didn't hear more about econ effects of OBBBA's targeting of at-risk immigrants, esp. from govt groups that had models equipped for that. For sure, part of story seems OBBBA sponsors didn't wait for these results.
bsky.app/profile/benz...
🚨🚨 Trump's deportations could destroy millions of jobs for immigrants and US-born workers 🚨🚨
New report from me @epi.org
New report from me @epi.org
Trump’s deportation agenda will destroy millions of jobs: Both immigrants and U.S.-born workers would suffer job losses, particularly in construction and child care
Deportations will eliminate millions of jobs held by immigrant and U.S.-born workers according to research on increased immigration enforcement.
www.epi.org
July 10, 2025 at 6:24 PM
This is must-read, thank you EPI.
I remain puzzled that we didn't hear more about econ effects of OBBBA's targeting of at-risk immigrants, esp. from govt groups that had models equipped for that. For sure, part of story seems OBBBA sponsors didn't wait for these results.
bsky.app/profile/benz...
I remain puzzled that we didn't hear more about econ effects of OBBBA's targeting of at-risk immigrants, esp. from govt groups that had models equipped for that. For sure, part of story seems OBBBA sponsors didn't wait for these results.
bsky.app/profile/benz...
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
1 in 5 workers is an immigrant.
Immigrants are a crucial part of the US economy, and Trump's radical deportation agenda will hurt us all.
Trump’s increase in deportations will destroy 6 million jobs—for both immigrants AND US-born workers: www.epi.org/publication/...
Immigrants are a crucial part of the US economy, and Trump's radical deportation agenda will hurt us all.
Trump’s increase in deportations will destroy 6 million jobs—for both immigrants AND US-born workers: www.epi.org/publication/...
July 10, 2025 at 1:11 PM
1 in 5 workers is an immigrant.
Immigrants are a crucial part of the US economy, and Trump's radical deportation agenda will hurt us all.
Trump’s increase in deportations will destroy 6 million jobs—for both immigrants AND US-born workers: www.epi.org/publication/...
Immigrants are a crucial part of the US economy, and Trump's radical deportation agenda will hurt us all.
Trump’s increase in deportations will destroy 6 million jobs—for both immigrants AND US-born workers: www.epi.org/publication/...
Like this paper showing Pillar 2 could be efficient way to target profit shifting.
Caveat is Pillar 2's tax rate test is very diluted. So P2 mostly (tho where's shipping, etc?) identifies BEPS, but actual tax collected seems low & getting lower.
@gabrielzucman.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/taxo...
Caveat is Pillar 2's tax rate test is very diluted. So P2 mostly (tho where's shipping, etc?) identifies BEPS, but actual tax collected seems low & getting lower.
@gabrielzucman.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/taxo...
Check out the full paper by @scliffordecon.bsky.social, @jakobmiethe.bsky.social and Camille Semelet 👉 www.taxobservatory.eu/publication/...
The Distribution of Profit Shifting - Eutax
www.taxobservatory.eu
July 10, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Like this paper showing Pillar 2 could be efficient way to target profit shifting.
Caveat is Pillar 2's tax rate test is very diluted. So P2 mostly (tho where's shipping, etc?) identifies BEPS, but actual tax collected seems low & getting lower.
@gabrielzucman.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/taxo...
Caveat is Pillar 2's tax rate test is very diluted. So P2 mostly (tho where's shipping, etc?) identifies BEPS, but actual tax collected seems low & getting lower.
@gabrielzucman.bsky.social
bsky.app/profile/taxo...
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
There isn't quite yet a critical mass of countries to implement an effective global minimum tax on the super-rich. But the idea is far more technically and politically feasible than most realize - a crucial lesson learnt from recent global tax successes:
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
July 8, 2025 at 12:11 PM
There isn't quite yet a critical mass of countries to implement an effective global minimum tax on the super-rich. But the idea is far more technically and politically feasible than most realize - a crucial lesson learnt from recent global tax successes:
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
doi.org/10.1111/1758...
Byrd no-deficit-beyond-2034 (and pre-2034 deficit restriction) fell easily, with 53 R votes. It didn't matter that 15 years ago the D Senate did NOT follow Obama Adm's use of current policy for fiscal cliff.
Now only discipline is (fgn-investor-influenced) bond market. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/bbko...
Now only discipline is (fgn-investor-influenced) bond market. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/bbko...
Senate Republicans will be using procedural gymnastics to a) violate two different prongs of the Byrd rule, and b) *pretend* they aren’t ignoring the parliamentarian in the process.
CBO tells @jeff-merkley.bsky.social that, under the budget baseline that's the law of the land, the Republicans' reconciliation bill breaks the rules both by exceeding the their budget resolution's instructions by trillions of dollars, and by adding to the deficit beyond the 10-year window.
July 6, 2025 at 5:29 PM
Byrd no-deficit-beyond-2034 (and pre-2034 deficit restriction) fell easily, with 53 R votes. It didn't matter that 15 years ago the D Senate did NOT follow Obama Adm's use of current policy for fiscal cliff.
Now only discipline is (fgn-investor-influenced) bond market. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/bbko...
Now only discipline is (fgn-investor-influenced) bond market. 1/2
bsky.app/profile/bbko...
Penn-W (-) and Tax Foundation (+) are already out with OBBBA macro analyses. More are coming. The 1st question should be what models do for direct OBBBA & other things:
(1) Big OBBBA targeting of at-risk immigrants;
(2) Tariffs, incl. imposed on intermediate inputs used by US-based companies; 1/2
(1) Big OBBBA targeting of at-risk immigrants;
(2) Tariffs, incl. imposed on intermediate inputs used by US-based companies; 1/2
July 6, 2025 at 2:29 PM
Penn-W (-) and Tax Foundation (+) are already out with OBBBA macro analyses. More are coming. The 1st question should be what models do for direct OBBBA & other things:
(1) Big OBBBA targeting of at-risk immigrants;
(2) Tariffs, incl. imposed on intermediate inputs used by US-based companies; 1/2
(1) Big OBBBA targeting of at-risk immigrants;
(2) Tariffs, incl. imposed on intermediate inputs used by US-based companies; 1/2
Not minimizing morality of all this, but sometime want to know why US labor supply effects from ICE & other funding & OBBBA tax/benefit squeeze of at-risk immigrants didn't seem to show up much in estimates.
Not faulting any analysts (this stuff is hard), but rather people who didn't want to know.
Not faulting any analysts (this stuff is hard), but rather people who didn't want to know.
Hard to fathom what ICE under Donald Trump with three times the funding can do.
July 3, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Not minimizing morality of all this, but sometime want to know why US labor supply effects from ICE & other funding & OBBBA tax/benefit squeeze of at-risk immigrants didn't seem to show up much in estimates.
Not faulting any analysts (this stuff is hard), but rather people who didn't want to know.
Not faulting any analysts (this stuff is hard), but rather people who didn't want to know.
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
Our @factcoalition.bsky.social reaction to the megabill:
The international provisions of this bill, which have been marketed as America-first reforms, actually put big corporations and tax havens first. Congress is betraying promises made to American workers to bring back domestic jobs.
The international provisions of this bill, which have been marketed as America-first reforms, actually put big corporations and tax havens first. Congress is betraying promises made to American workers to bring back domestic jobs.
Congress Provides Tax Breaks for Large Corporations While Cutting Health, Climate Programs
Congress’ final reconciliation bill moves nearly every aspect of the tax code in the wrong direction, gutting popular programs in favor of regressive tax cuts for multinational corporations.
thefactcoalition.org
July 3, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Our @factcoalition.bsky.social reaction to the megabill:
The international provisions of this bill, which have been marketed as America-first reforms, actually put big corporations and tax havens first. Congress is betraying promises made to American workers to bring back domestic jobs.
The international provisions of this bill, which have been marketed as America-first reforms, actually put big corporations and tax havens first. Congress is betraying promises made to American workers to bring back domestic jobs.
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
(7/7) The only risk for Medicaid funding is that Congress actively chooses to cut it. Cutting it doesn’t make more room for others. It just harms the people we cut off.
July 2, 2025 at 12:15 PM
(7/7) The only risk for Medicaid funding is that Congress actively chooses to cut it. Cutting it doesn’t make more room for others. It just harms the people we cut off.
The US base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT) arbitrarily denies x-border deductions & some (all in 2026) tax credits, with 10% (12.5% in 2026) tax rate. For taxpayers with BEAT liability, BEAT effectively is a gross receipts tax, not unlike a digital services tax.
Do Canada et al know this? 1/4
Do Canada et al know this? 1/4
Trump Says U.S. Ending Trade Talks With Canada
www.nytimes.com
June 29, 2025 at 1:03 PM
The US base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT) arbitrarily denies x-border deductions & some (all in 2026) tax credits, with 10% (12.5% in 2026) tax rate. For taxpayers with BEAT liability, BEAT effectively is a gross receipts tax, not unlike a digital services tax.
Do Canada et al know this? 1/4
Do Canada et al know this? 1/4
Left, CBO shows OBBBA lower 5 deciles avg -$409 yearly. Right, enacted permanent TCJA, proxied by 2027, had net tax and outlay of -$615 for lower half.
OBBBA benefits top groups more than original TCJA did, but both feast on lower income groups. Original TCJA's regressivity has been overlooked.
OBBBA benefits top groups more than original TCJA did, but both feast on lower income groups. Original TCJA's regressivity has been overlooked.
June 26, 2025 at 12:37 PM
Left, CBO shows OBBBA lower 5 deciles avg -$409 yearly. Right, enacted permanent TCJA, proxied by 2027, had net tax and outlay of -$615 for lower half.
OBBBA benefits top groups more than original TCJA did, but both feast on lower income groups. Original TCJA's regressivity has been overlooked.
OBBBA benefits top groups more than original TCJA did, but both feast on lower income groups. Original TCJA's regressivity has been overlooked.
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
The school-voucher/scholarship tax credit in the GOP tax bill is unlike any other tax break. Our story:
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
The Tax Bill Would Deliver a Big Win for Private Schools—and Investors
School-choice advocates see a ‘revolution within the tax code.’
www.wsj.com
June 23, 2025 at 1:31 PM
The school-voucher/scholarship tax credit in the GOP tax bill is unlike any other tax break. Our story:
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
www.wsj.com/politics/pol...
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
Years after Warren Buffett basically got it right about his low tax rate, many distributional models still often describe U.S. federal taxes as uniformly progressive.
@dsmitch28.bsky.social and I concur with @wyden.senate.gov's skepticism of this progressivity.
equitablegrowth.org/the-funny-ma...
@dsmitch28.bsky.social and I concur with @wyden.senate.gov's skepticism of this progressivity.
equitablegrowth.org/the-funny-ma...
The ‘funny math’ of top U.S. tax rates
A breakdown of two applications of the funny tax rate that imply implausibly high tax rates for the rich and highlight U.S. economic inequality.
equitablegrowth.org
June 11, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Years after Warren Buffett basically got it right about his low tax rate, many distributional models still often describe U.S. federal taxes as uniformly progressive.
@dsmitch28.bsky.social and I concur with @wyden.senate.gov's skepticism of this progressivity.
equitablegrowth.org/the-funny-ma...
@dsmitch28.bsky.social and I concur with @wyden.senate.gov's skepticism of this progressivity.
equitablegrowth.org/the-funny-ma...
Sen bill does well devoting $17B to adoption, dependent care, & DCTC.
But that pales next to radical* credit for private school donors costing $26B.
(*So sweet it's a tax shelter. Also, compare it to bill's denial of public-school-supporting prop tax ded.)
h/t @itep.org @amyhanauer.bsky.social
But that pales next to radical* credit for private school donors costing $26B.
(*So sweet it's a tax shelter. Also, compare it to bill's denial of public-school-supporting prop tax ded.)
h/t @itep.org @amyhanauer.bsky.social
June 23, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Sen bill does well devoting $17B to adoption, dependent care, & DCTC.
But that pales next to radical* credit for private school donors costing $26B.
(*So sweet it's a tax shelter. Also, compare it to bill's denial of public-school-supporting prop tax ded.)
h/t @itep.org @amyhanauer.bsky.social
But that pales next to radical* credit for private school donors costing $26B.
(*So sweet it's a tax shelter. Also, compare it to bill's denial of public-school-supporting prop tax ded.)
h/t @itep.org @amyhanauer.bsky.social
I've been pushing the idea OBBBA could cause a big labor supply shock. That technical framing is aimed at the fiscal debate.
But my dry language isn't intended to minimize full (incl. moral) scope of targeting at-risk immigrants as well as safetynet users. I am guessing CBO staff (⬇️) feel same.
But my dry language isn't intended to minimize full (incl. moral) scope of targeting at-risk immigrants as well as safetynet users. I am guessing CBO staff (⬇️) feel same.
June 21, 2025 at 1:35 PM
I've been pushing the idea OBBBA could cause a big labor supply shock. That technical framing is aimed at the fiscal debate.
But my dry language isn't intended to minimize full (incl. moral) scope of targeting at-risk immigrants as well as safetynet users. I am guessing CBO staff (⬇️) feel same.
But my dry language isn't intended to minimize full (incl. moral) scope of targeting at-risk immigrants as well as safetynet users. I am guessing CBO staff (⬇️) feel same.
Reposted by Patrick Driessen
This #Juneteenth, we reflect on freedom and economic justice.
Research reveals how systemic barriers continue to restrict economic mobility for Black Americans — from dissipated generational gains to disparities in unemployment insurance access.
Learn more ➡️ equitablegrowth.org/on-juneteent...
Research reveals how systemic barriers continue to restrict economic mobility for Black Americans — from dissipated generational gains to disparities in unemployment insurance access.
Learn more ➡️ equitablegrowth.org/on-juneteent...
On Juneteenth: New research demonstrates how economic mobility is restricted for Black Americans
A review of recently published research findings and trends on economic mobility for Black Americans.
equitablegrowth.org
June 19, 2025 at 1:06 PM
This #Juneteenth, we reflect on freedom and economic justice.
Research reveals how systemic barriers continue to restrict economic mobility for Black Americans — from dissipated generational gains to disparities in unemployment insurance access.
Learn more ➡️ equitablegrowth.org/on-juneteent...
Research reveals how systemic barriers continue to restrict economic mobility for Black Americans — from dissipated generational gains to disparities in unemployment insurance access.
Learn more ➡️ equitablegrowth.org/on-juneteent...