Patrick Gerard
@patrikgerard.bsky.social
phd student @usc-isi | misinformation, networks, nlp
Reposted by Patrick Gerard
(Second Conspiracy Pattern)
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
(Second Conspiracy Pattern)
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
& If you're working on cross-platform analysis, information operations, or platform safety—would love to chat about this stuff.
Everything is open. DMs are open too :0
My website here: patrickgerard.co
Everything is open. DMs are open too :0
My website here: patrickgerard.co
Patrick Gerard
Researcher
patrickgerard.co
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
& If you're working on cross-platform analysis, information operations, or platform safety—would love to chat about this stuff.
Everything is open. DMs are open too :0
My website here: patrickgerard.co
Everything is open. DMs are open too :0
My website here: patrickgerard.co
Plz take a look for yourself!
🎛️ Dashboard: patrikgerard.github.io/cross-plat-n...
📄 New Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
Really curious what patterns you find when exploring the data
🎛️ Dashboard: patrikgerard.github.io/cross-plat-n...
📄 New Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
Really curious what patterns you find when exploring the data
Mapping Cross-Platform Narratives
patrikgerard.github.io
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Plz take a look for yourself!
🎛️ Dashboard: patrikgerard.github.io/cross-plat-n...
📄 New Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
Really curious what patterns you find when exploring the data
🎛️ Dashboard: patrikgerard.github.io/cross-plat-n...
📄 New Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
Really curious what patterns you find when exploring the data
When emergence occurs, users have 290% more active cross-platform neighbors discussing the narrative than when it doesn't.
This proximity signal makes cross-platform prediction tractable—no diffusion modeling required.
This proximity signal makes cross-platform prediction tractable—no diffusion modeling required.
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
When emergence occurs, users have 290% more active cross-platform neighbors discussing the narrative than when it doesn't.
This proximity signal makes cross-platform prediction tractable—no diffusion modeling required.
This proximity signal makes cross-platform prediction tractable—no diffusion modeling required.
Now, the paper findings:
We can exploit cross-platform connections to reformulate information diffusion across platforms into a problem of simple social proximity.
Instead of modeling complex spread dynamics, we ask: do users have cross-platform neighbors already discussing this?
We can exploit cross-platform connections to reformulate information diffusion across platforms into a problem of simple social proximity.
Instead of modeling complex spread dynamics, we ask: do users have cross-platform neighbors already discussing this?
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Now, the paper findings:
We can exploit cross-platform connections to reformulate information diffusion across platforms into a problem of simple social proximity.
Instead of modeling complex spread dynamics, we ask: do users have cross-platform neighbors already discussing this?
We can exploit cross-platform connections to reformulate information diffusion across platforms into a problem of simple social proximity.
Instead of modeling complex spread dynamics, we ask: do users have cross-platform neighbors already discussing this?
The dashboard covers major 2024 election themes:
Conspiracy & Deep State
Election Process & Integrity
Immigration & Border
Economic Conditions
Candidate Image & Competence
Media & Information Trust
Foreign Affairs & Security
Conspiracy & Deep State
Election Process & Integrity
Immigration & Border
Economic Conditions
Candidate Image & Competence
Media & Information Trust
Foreign Affairs & Security
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
The dashboard covers major 2024 election themes:
Conspiracy & Deep State
Election Process & Integrity
Immigration & Border
Economic Conditions
Candidate Image & Competence
Media & Information Trust
Foreign Affairs & Security
Conspiracy & Deep State
Election Process & Integrity
Immigration & Border
Economic Conditions
Candidate Image & Competence
Media & Information Trust
Foreign Affairs & Security
Another mainstream example: Energy independence debates—claims about US energy self-sufficiency, push for domestic drilling vs. green transition.
Broadly distributed, especially Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴.
The difference in distribution patterns compared to the conspiracy narratives is striking.
Broadly distributed, especially Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴.
The difference in distribution patterns compared to the conspiracy narratives is striking.
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Another mainstream example: Energy independence debates—claims about US energy self-sufficiency, push for domestic drilling vs. green transition.
Broadly distributed, especially Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴.
The difference in distribution patterns compared to the conspiracy narratives is striking.
Broadly distributed, especially Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴.
The difference in distribution patterns compared to the conspiracy narratives is striking.
Compare this to the Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling—July 2024 decision granting broad immunity to Trump.
Discussion emerges across ALL platforms—heavy TikTok 🔴 and Twitter 🔵 from the start, but also Telegram ⚪ and Truth Social 🟣.
Mainstream events show way different patterns.
Discussion emerges across ALL platforms—heavy TikTok 🔴 and Twitter 🔵 from the start, but also Telegram ⚪ and Truth Social 🟣.
Mainstream events show way different patterns.
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Compare this to the Supreme Court presidential immunity ruling—July 2024 decision granting broad immunity to Trump.
Discussion emerges across ALL platforms—heavy TikTok 🔴 and Twitter 🔵 from the start, but also Telegram ⚪ and Truth Social 🟣.
Mainstream events show way different patterns.
Discussion emerges across ALL platforms—heavy TikTok 🔴 and Twitter 🔵 from the start, but also Telegram ⚪ and Truth Social 🟣.
Mainstream events show way different patterns.
(Second Conspiracy Pattern)
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
(Second Conspiracy Pattern)
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
Similar trajectory with COVID lab-leak/Fauci narratives—claims about NIH gain-of-function research and intentional virus creation.
Telegram ⚪ + Truth Social 🟣 dominate early and throughout
Later gains ground on Twitter 🔵 and TikTok 🔴
Very similar pattern :0
(External Validation)
PBS reported (Oct 5) on far-right groups spreading weather control theories, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene endorsing the idea that "they can control the weather."
You can see this explosion into mainstream platforms on our dashboard.
Link: tinyurl.com/pbs-weather
PBS reported (Oct 5) on far-right groups spreading weather control theories, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene endorsing the idea that "they can control the weather."
You can see this explosion into mainstream platforms on our dashboard.
Link: tinyurl.com/pbs-weather
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
(External Validation)
PBS reported (Oct 5) on far-right groups spreading weather control theories, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene endorsing the idea that "they can control the weather."
You can see this explosion into mainstream platforms on our dashboard.
Link: tinyurl.com/pbs-weather
PBS reported (Oct 5) on far-right groups spreading weather control theories, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene endorsing the idea that "they can control the weather."
You can see this explosion into mainstream platforms on our dashboard.
Link: tinyurl.com/pbs-weather
(Conspiracy Pattern - HAARP)
Take the HAARP/weather control conspiracy around Hurricane Helene—claims that government technology steered the hurricane toward Republican voters.
Starts dominated by Telegram ⚪, sustained there
Small Twitter/X 🔵 and TikTok 🔴 presence early
Then TikTok 🔴 explodes
Take the HAARP/weather control conspiracy around Hurricane Helene—claims that government technology steered the hurricane toward Republican voters.
Starts dominated by Telegram ⚪, sustained there
Small Twitter/X 🔵 and TikTok 🔴 presence early
Then TikTok 🔴 explodes
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
(Conspiracy Pattern - HAARP)
Take the HAARP/weather control conspiracy around Hurricane Helene—claims that government technology steered the hurricane toward Republican voters.
Starts dominated by Telegram ⚪, sustained there
Small Twitter/X 🔵 and TikTok 🔴 presence early
Then TikTok 🔴 explodes
Take the HAARP/weather control conspiracy around Hurricane Helene—claims that government technology steered the hurricane toward Republican voters.
Starts dominated by Telegram ⚪, sustained there
Small Twitter/X 🔵 and TikTok 🔴 presence early
Then TikTok 🔴 explodes
Tracking 5.7M posts across X, TikTok, Telegram, and Truth Social during the 2024 election:
Legend:
🔵 Twitter/X
🔴 TikTok
⚪ Telegram
🟣 Truth Social
Circle size = post volume
Ring color = dominant platform
Watch how narratives shift across platforms in the unified online information ecosystem...
Legend:
🔵 Twitter/X
🔴 TikTok
⚪ Telegram
🟣 Truth Social
Circle size = post volume
Ring color = dominant platform
Watch how narratives shift across platforms in the unified online information ecosystem...
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Tracking 5.7M posts across X, TikTok, Telegram, and Truth Social during the 2024 election:
Legend:
🔵 Twitter/X
🔴 TikTok
⚪ Telegram
🟣 Truth Social
Circle size = post volume
Ring color = dominant platform
Watch how narratives shift across platforms in the unified online information ecosystem...
Legend:
🔵 Twitter/X
🔴 TikTok
⚪ Telegram
🟣 Truth Social
Circle size = post volume
Ring color = dominant platform
Watch how narratives shift across platforms in the unified online information ecosystem...
Before diving into those findings, I want to show off an interactive dashboard we made to illustrate what discourse networks unlock:
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Before diving into those findings, I want to show off an interactive dashboard we made to illustrate what discourse networks unlock:
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
Before diving into those findings, I want to show off an interactive dashboard we made to illustrate what discourse networks unlock:
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Before diving into those findings, I want to show off an interactive dashboard we made to illustrate what discourse networks unlock:
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
By understanding the info ecosystem as a unified landscape, we can understand cross-platform dynamics in a new way.
Discourse networks reframe this as social proximity:
We ask: "Do users on Twitter/X have cross-platform neighbors on Telegram who are already discussing this narrative?"
If yes, emergence is likely. This makes prediction tractable.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
We ask: "Do users on Twitter/X have cross-platform neighbors on Telegram who are already discussing this narrative?"
If yes, emergence is likely. This makes prediction tractable.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
Cross-Platform Narrative Prediction: Leveraging Platform-Invariant Discourse Networks
Online narratives spread unevenly across platforms, with content emerging on one site often appearing on others, hours, days or weeks later. Existing cross-platform information diffusion models often ...
arxiv.org
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Discourse networks reframe this as social proximity:
We ask: "Do users on Twitter/X have cross-platform neighbors on Telegram who are already discussing this narrative?"
If yes, emergence is likely. This makes prediction tractable.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
We ask: "Do users on Twitter/X have cross-platform neighbors on Telegram who are already discussing this narrative?"
If yes, emergence is likely. This makes prediction tractable.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2510.09464
In our new paper (w/ @luceriluc.bsky.social @emilioferrara.bsky.social ), we built on this framework and tackled a hard problem:
When a narrative is active on Telegram, will it jump to Twitter? Traditional approaches model complex diffusion dynamics.
When a narrative is active on Telegram, will it jump to Twitter? Traditional approaches model complex diffusion dynamics.
October 20, 2025 at 6:33 PM
In our new paper (w/ @luceriluc.bsky.social @emilioferrara.bsky.social ), we built on this framework and tackled a hard problem:
When a narrative is active on Telegram, will it jump to Twitter? Traditional approaches model complex diffusion dynamics.
When a narrative is active on Telegram, will it jump to Twitter? Traditional approaches model complex diffusion dynamics.
⬆️ This work builds on our recent paper discussed in this thread, in which we build out cross-platform user networks by connecting users via shared ideas!
bsky.app/profile/patr...
bsky.app/profile/patr...
While I'm here, I might as well post about my newest work with @luceriluc.bsky.social and @emilioferrara.bsky.social in which we built a platform-agnostic framework that models and connects users as distributions over latent narratives rather than interactions.
June 22, 2025 at 6:49 PM
⬆️ This work builds on our recent paper discussed in this thread, in which we build out cross-platform user networks by connecting users via shared ideas!
bsky.app/profile/patr...
bsky.app/profile/patr...
In my talk, I'll discuss my current work with @emilioferrara.bsky.social aimed at understanding the cross-platform toxic narrative movement online.
June 22, 2025 at 6:49 PM
In my talk, I'll discuss my current work with @emilioferrara.bsky.social aimed at understanding the cross-platform toxic narrative movement online.
Paper here:
arxiv.org/abs/2505.21729
arxiv.org/abs/2505.21729
Bridging the Narrative Divide: Cross-Platform Discourse Networks in Fragmented Ecosystems
Political discourse has grown increasingly fragmented across different social platforms, making it challenging to trace how narratives spread and evolve within such a fragmented information ecosystem....
arxiv.org
June 22, 2025 at 6:45 PM
Paper here:
arxiv.org/abs/2505.21729
arxiv.org/abs/2505.21729
This is a new way of thinking about user networks: birds of the same feather don't simply tweet together; they *think* together. Connecting users via latent narratives allows us to capture more users with less data and break out of arbitrary platform boundaries.
June 22, 2025 at 6:45 PM
This is a new way of thinking about user networks: birds of the same feather don't simply tweet together; they *think* together. Connecting users via latent narratives allows us to capture more users with less data and break out of arbitrary platform boundaries.