Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
@olyaoliker.bsky.social
Europe & Central Asia Director @crisisgroup.org / Feminist / Migrant / ❤️ punk rock / Opinions own / Endorsements clearly marked / https://www.crisisgroup.org/who-we-are/people/olga-oliker
Reposted by Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
Belarus's nuclear sharing arrangement with the Kremlin makes it far more difficult for Minsk to act independently, write @gabrielairosa.bsky.social and @dexeve.bsky.social.
"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
"The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb." ⬇️
The 'Zapad' exercise and how Lukashenko learned to love the Bomb
Despite being highly anticipated, the sudden change in public rhetoric about this year's Zapad strategic military exercise suggests that the Russia-Belarus relationship may be more complicated than…
thebulletin.org
November 6, 2025 at 4:03 PM
@dexeve.bsky.social and I wrote this piece a while ago for
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social. In it, we propose interpreting the Russia-Belarusian nuclear sharing agreement along with Minsk's behavior surrounding it as a tool for the political survival of the Lukashenko regime. 1/?
Mayor-elect of NYC is a man who co-wrote & co-performed a (political) song about salt & I think that is very appropriate
November 5, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Mayor-elect of NYC is a man who co-wrote & co-performed a (political) song about salt & I think that is very appropriate
I ❤️ Lynda Barry
Opinion | The Real Horrors of America
www.nytimes.com
November 1, 2025 at 8:56 AM
I ❤️ Lynda Barry
Interesting. I had a conversation with someone the other day about whether the language in which you ask the question affects the answer an LLM gives you, particularly when it comes to matters of international affairs, but not only. Have not tested that (and probably won't), so still wondering.
Report that Russia is flooding the internet with millions of articles in order to shift LLM outputs towards manipulated narratives: euvsdisinfo.eu/large-langua...
euvsdisinfo.eu
October 24, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Interesting. I had a conversation with someone the other day about whether the language in which you ask the question affects the answer an LLM gives you, particularly when it comes to matters of international affairs, but not only. Have not tested that (and probably won't), so still wondering.
А чем, вообще, являются гарантии безопасности, и почему они стали таким тяжелым вопросом в отношениях между Украиной и ее партнерами? Мы ( @crisisgroup.org ) объясняем (текст доступний українською мовою, на русском, & in English)
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...
Високі ставки: чому так важко узгодити гарантії безпеки для України | International Crisis Group
Україна просить своїх партнерів надати їй гарантії безпеки — найкраще негайно, але в будь-якому разі до того, як буде укладено якусь угоду з Росією. Експерти Кризової групи пояснюють, чому для прихиль...
www.crisisgroup.org
October 24, 2025 at 4:02 PM
А чем, вообще, являются гарантии безопасности, и почему они стали таким тяжелым вопросом в отношениях между Украиной и ее партнерами? Мы ( @crisisgroup.org ) объясняем (текст доступний українською мовою, на русском, & in English)
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...
Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.
High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group
Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...
www.crisisgroup.org
October 23, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.
Trump isn't the first global leader to try (& try) to find a path to peace in the Russo-Ukraine war. New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast welcomes @clingendael.bsky.social's Bob Deen to discuss the roles global powers have tried to play & might yet play with guest host Alissa de Carbonnel & me.
A Bigger Table? The Case for More Global Diplomacy over Ukraine | International Crisis Group
This week on War & Peace, Olga and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel speak with Bob Deen, Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, about diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine and how countri...
www.crisisgroup.org
October 21, 2025 at 11:29 AM
Trump isn't the first global leader to try (& try) to find a path to peace in the Russo-Ukraine war. New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast welcomes @clingendael.bsky.social's Bob Deen to discuss the roles global powers have tried to play & might yet play with guest host Alissa de Carbonnel & me.
Reposted by Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
Not to be THAT dictionary, but…
It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'
It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'
October 20, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Not to be THAT dictionary, but…
It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'
It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'
this is a good speech.
Cleve Jones gave a riveting, rousing speech at San Francisco's No Kings rally yesterday, and he's graciously allowing me to publish it. He began: "The pronouns I use the most are the ones probably understood the least by those in the White House today. They are WE, US and OURS."
Cleve Jones: "This Is Our Country"
This is the first guest essay at Meditations in an Emergency. I'm proud to bring you yesterday's speech by the great Cleve Jones, who has for nearly half a century been a key organizer for the global ...
www.meditationsinanemergency.com
October 20, 2025 at 11:14 AM
this is a good speech.
This is a terrific success story. It also offers valuable insight into the gaps in much traditional economic/employment/income analysis: a lot of people, most of them female, do a great deal of unpaid agricultural labor that is not accounted for unless the models are built to recognize it.
Meridah Nandudu was a single mom of two kids, unemployed and in despair. Then she had an idea: Maybe the "humble" coffee beans she'd grown up with on her parents' farm could lead her to a better life. n.pr/4nUB3ES
Coffee transformed her life — and the lives of women from her village in Uganda
Meridah Nandudu was a single mom of two kids, unemployed and in despair. Then she had an idea: Maybe the "humble" coffee beans she'd grown up with on her parents' farm could lead her to a better life.
n.pr
October 17, 2025 at 10:07 AM
This is a terrific success story. It also offers valuable insight into the gaps in much traditional economic/employment/income analysis: a lot of people, most of them female, do a great deal of unpaid agricultural labor that is not accounted for unless the models are built to recognize it.
This is funny.
October 16, 2025 at 9:49 PM
This is funny.
Our latest @crisisgroup.org EU Watchlist starts with a sober President's Take on the challenges of navigating between the Scylla of Russian threats and the Charybdis of US inconstancy, then dives deep into how the EU can help make things better in Kosovo, Mexico, Yemen, Somalia, and Taiwan.
Watch List 2025 – Autumn Update | International Crisis Group
Each year, Crisis Group publishes two updates to the EU Watch List identifying where the EU and its member states can enhance prospects for peace. This update covers Kosovo’s politics, Mexico’s securi...
www.crisisgroup.org
October 16, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Our latest @crisisgroup.org EU Watchlist starts with a sober President's Take on the challenges of navigating between the Scylla of Russian threats and the Charybdis of US inconstancy, then dives deep into how the EU can help make things better in Kosovo, Mexico, Yemen, Somalia, and Taiwan.
More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.
In our latest, @dexeve.bsky.social and I change it up by combining an analysis of satellite imagery and military writings to assess what the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus means for Russia's escalation management strategy. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 16, 2025 at 1:01 PM
More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.
Really interesting analysis from @massdara.bsky.social on what Russian military is learning, & its learning challenges. Paired with @gabrielairosa.bsky.social's recent work on Russian strategic thinking & threat perceptions www.cna.org/analyses/202..., it's got me thinking. So join me in a 🧵 1/7
How Russia Recovered
What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.
www.foreignaffairs.com
October 8, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Really interesting analysis from @massdara.bsky.social on what Russian military is learning, & its learning challenges. Paired with @gabrielairosa.bsky.social's recent work on Russian strategic thinking & threat perceptions www.cna.org/analyses/202..., it's got me thinking. So join me in a 🧵 1/7
The logic of Russian military assistance (including deployments of Wagner and Africa Corps), explained in a short video, with excellent maps, from @crisisgroup.org w/the erudite Pauline Bax narrating! www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...
MAPPING CONFLICT | Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa
YouTube video by International Crisis Group
www.youtube.com
October 7, 2025 at 12:27 PM
The logic of Russian military assistance (including deployments of Wagner and Africa Corps), explained in a short video, with excellent maps, from @crisisgroup.org w/the erudite Pauline Bax narrating! www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...
Reposted by Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
On this week’s episode, I joined Richard Atwood along with my colleagues @mairavz.bsky.social @maxji.bsky.social and Amjad Iraqi to discuss Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposals and next steps.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan? | International Crisis Group
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan, who might benefit fro...
www.crisisgroup.org
October 5, 2025 at 3:59 PM
On this week’s episode, I joined Richard Atwood along with my colleagues @mairavz.bsky.social @maxji.bsky.social and Amjad Iraqi to discuss Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposals and next steps.
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...
Really important stuff from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social & CNA. Our own assumptions about what others think are bound to get things wrong. Always a good idea to go to the sources. Read the thread, then read the report!
In this new @CNA_org report, I analyze how authoritative figures in the Russian mil view threats in the wake of the war in Ukraine. The key insight: Traditional Russian threat perceptions haven't shifted — they've been sharpened. 1/?
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
www.cna.org/analyses/202...
October 2, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Really important stuff from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social & CNA. Our own assumptions about what others think are bound to get things wrong. Always a good idea to go to the sources. Read the thread, then read the report!
Kayla has been there and done that and knows things.
Random thoughts on Hegseth speech:
- Having done both old-school Army PT and yoga, I would pay a thousand dollars to watch an infantry platoon get absolutely fucking smoked in a hot yoga class
1/
- Having done both old-school Army PT and yoga, I would pay a thousand dollars to watch an infantry platoon get absolutely fucking smoked in a hot yoga class
1/
September 30, 2025 at 9:30 PM
Kayla has been there and done that and knows things.
Moldova's parliamentary elections have given ruling party PAS a mandate to keep on keeping on with European integration and EU accession. But there's still a lot of work to do, and some substantial challenges to overcome. My @crisisgroup.org colleague Marta Mucznik explains.
Moldova Votes EU, but Obstacles Clutter Path to Membership | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group expert Marta Mucznik analyses the victory in parliamentary polls of the country’s pro-European integration party and the next steps in the accession process
www.crisisgroup.org
September 30, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Moldova's parliamentary elections have given ruling party PAS a mandate to keep on keeping on with European integration and EU accession. But there's still a lot of work to do, and some substantial challenges to overcome. My @crisisgroup.org colleague Marta Mucznik explains.
Tell me again how gender (& especially gender performance) isn't relevant to politics (foreign and domestic).
September 30, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Tell me again how gender (& especially gender performance) isn't relevant to politics (foreign and domestic).
On the new @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, I join host Richard Atwood, @luciankim.bsky.social, & @stevepomper.bsky.social to talk Trump's changing rhetoric on Ukraine, how dynamics look from Kyiv, & airspace incursions in Europe. We don't figure it all out, but we cover a lot! Listen in!
What to Make of Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy? | International Crisis Group
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic effo...
www.crisisgroup.org
September 29, 2025 at 11:00 AM
On the new @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, I join host Richard Atwood, @luciankim.bsky.social, & @stevepomper.bsky.social to talk Trump's changing rhetoric on Ukraine, how dynamics look from Kyiv, & airspace incursions in Europe. We don't figure it all out, but we cover a lot! Listen in!
Reposted by Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
🚨 JUST IN: President Donald Trump has an opportunity to avoid the dangers of an unrestrained nuclear arms competition—something he has repeatedly warned about. Will he seize it?
Latest by Matt Bunn (@matthew-bunn.bsky.social) in @thebulletin.org
#nuclearweapons #nukesky #Trump #Putin #China
Latest by Matt Bunn (@matthew-bunn.bsky.social) in @thebulletin.org
#nuclearweapons #nukesky #Trump #Putin #China
Putin just gave Trump the opportunity to maintain nuclear restraint. Will he seize it?
Extending New START will also give time for Trump to work with Russia and China on future arms control accords.
thebulletin.org
September 25, 2025 at 12:25 PM
🚨 JUST IN: President Donald Trump has an opportunity to avoid the dangers of an unrestrained nuclear arms competition—something he has repeatedly warned about. Will he seize it?
Latest by Matt Bunn (@matthew-bunn.bsky.social) in @thebulletin.org
#nuclearweapons #nukesky #Trump #Putin #China
Latest by Matt Bunn (@matthew-bunn.bsky.social) in @thebulletin.org
#nuclearweapons #nukesky #Trump #Putin #China
☺️ Thanks, Kim!
Terrific new @meduza.io “Naked Pravda” podcast from @olyaoliker.bsky.social does the best job I’ve seen of laying out the strategic interaction implications of Russia’s airspace incursions and NATO’s possible responses: meduza.io/en/episodes/...
Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza
In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...
meduza.io
September 25, 2025 at 3:05 PM
☺️ Thanks, Kim!
Reposted by Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)
In a new episode of The Naked Pravda, I speak to @olyaoliker.bsky.social about Russia’s escalating incursions into NATO airspace and how today’s tensions compare to the incident a decade ago when Turkey downed a Russian bomber in Syria. meduza.io/en/episodes/...
Here’s what you do when Russia won’t stay out of your airspace — Meduza
In recent weeks, Estonia, Poland, and Romania have reported breaches of their airspace by Russian aircraft. Just this week, Norway revealed that Russian aircraft have violated its airspace three times...
meduza.io
September 24, 2025 at 7:25 PM
In a new episode of The Naked Pravda, I speak to @olyaoliker.bsky.social about Russia’s escalating incursions into NATO airspace and how today’s tensions compare to the incident a decade ago when Turkey downed a Russian bomber in Syria. meduza.io/en/episodes/...
Greatest is a high bar, but gotta say that I like it here.
I’ve said it once, I’ll say it again.
Ignore the haters, London is the 🐐
Ignore the haters, London is the 🐐
September 23, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Greatest is a high bar, but gotta say that I like it here.