@odetak.bsky.social
Deputy Chief Economist at First American
Real Estate & Housing Finance
Co-host of REconomy podcast
Albanian-American
📍DC
Real Estate & Housing Finance
Co-host of REconomy podcast
Albanian-American
📍DC
Here’s the 3D yield curve we refer to in the episode…
October 9, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Here’s the 3D yield curve we refer to in the episode…
In part 2 of our Midwest industrial reset series, we dig into how the pandemic-era boom in mega-warehouses is now creating serious challenges for landlords and markets.
If you to see what this means for specific Midwestern markets, read the full post here:
blog.firstam.com/cre-insights...
If you to see what this means for specific Midwestern markets, read the full post here:
blog.firstam.com/cre-insights...
October 6, 2025 at 6:49 PM
In part 2 of our Midwest industrial reset series, we dig into how the pandemic-era boom in mega-warehouses is now creating serious challenges for landlords and markets.
If you to see what this means for specific Midwestern markets, read the full post here:
blog.firstam.com/cre-insights...
If you to see what this means for specific Midwestern markets, read the full post here:
blog.firstam.com/cre-insights...
Housing affordability across the nation improved by 2.3% YoY in July.
Affordability improvements, however, are not uniform across the country. Check out the blog to learn more about where affordability is improving the most.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
Affordability improvements, however, are not uniform across the country. Check out the blog to learn more about where affordability is improving the most.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
October 1, 2025 at 7:38 PM
Housing affordability across the nation improved by 2.3% YoY in July.
Affordability improvements, however, are not uniform across the country. Check out the blog to learn more about where affordability is improving the most.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
Affordability improvements, however, are not uniform across the country. Check out the blog to learn more about where affordability is improving the most.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
Pending home sales rose 4% MoM and were up 3.8% YoY. As a forward-looking indicator, the data suggests that while buyers are re-engaging, caution remains. Improvements in mortgage rates, affordability, and inventory are helping, but not yet driving a full recovery in housing demand.
September 29, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Pending home sales rose 4% MoM and were up 3.8% YoY. As a forward-looking indicator, the data suggests that while buyers are re-engaging, caution remains. Improvements in mortgage rates, affordability, and inventory are helping, but not yet driving a full recovery in housing demand.
Just released Q2 2025 NMDB data reveals:
- 20.4% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.1% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 19.7% have a rate >= 6%
80% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%.
- 20.4% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.1% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 19.7% have a rate >= 6%
80% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%.
September 25, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Just released Q2 2025 NMDB data reveals:
- 20.4% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.1% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 19.7% have a rate >= 6%
80% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%.
- 20.4% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.1% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 19.7% have a rate >= 6%
80% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%.
The NFL season is back, and so is our annual housing market face-off. This year, we scanned the NFL divisions to see where first-time buyers have the best shot to move the chains toward the homeownership end zone.
blog.firstam.com/economics/th...
blog.firstam.com/economics/th...
September 23, 2025 at 4:11 PM
The NFL season is back, and so is our annual housing market face-off. This year, we scanned the NFL divisions to see where first-time buyers have the best shot to move the chains toward the homeownership end zone.
blog.firstam.com/economics/th...
blog.firstam.com/economics/th...
In June, prices declined or grew less than 1 percent annually in 27 of the 50 markets we track. While sellers may feel the pinch of waning pricing power, slower price growth—paired with rising incomes—is finally giving buyers a much-needed edge.
More in the blog: blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
More in the blog: blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
August 29, 2025 at 9:19 PM
In June, prices declined or grew less than 1 percent annually in 27 of the 50 markets we track. While sellers may feel the pinch of waning pricing power, slower price growth—paired with rising incomes—is finally giving buyers a much-needed edge.
More in the blog: blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
More in the blog: blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
In the week ending July 25, 2025, the seasonally adjusted purchase index declined 5.8% from the previous week but remains 17% higher than the same week last year. However, purchase mortgage applications are still 31% below the pre-COVID average.
July 30, 2025 at 3:28 PM
In the week ending July 25, 2025, the seasonally adjusted purchase index declined 5.8% from the previous week but remains 17% higher than the same week last year. However, purchase mortgage applications are still 31% below the pre-COVID average.
Pending home sales dipped 0.8% in June from the prior month and were down 2.8% YoY. As a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, this suggests the housing market continues to hover near the bottom, showing little sign of renewed momentum heading into the second half of the year.
July 30, 2025 at 3:26 PM
Pending home sales dipped 0.8% in June from the prior month and were down 2.8% YoY. As a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, this suggests the housing market continues to hover near the bottom, showing little sign of renewed momentum heading into the second half of the year.
Since 2019, nearly nine in 10 newly cost-burdened homeowners have been either younger adults entering the market or seniors aging in place.
July 9, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Since 2019, nearly nine in 10 newly cost-burdened homeowners have been either younger adults entering the market or seniors aging in place.
Just released Q1 2025 NMDB data reveals:
- 20.7% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.7% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 18.8% have a rate >= 6%
81% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%- that's the lowest since Q1 2016.
- 20.7% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.7% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 18.8% have a rate >= 6%
81% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%- that's the lowest since Q1 2016.
June 30, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Just released Q1 2025 NMDB data reveals:
- 20.7% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.7% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 18.8% have a rate >= 6%
81% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%- that's the lowest since Q1 2016.
- 20.7% of mortgaged homes have a rate <3%
- 32.7% have a rate 3.0 - 3.99%
- 17.9% have a rate 4.0 - 4.99%
- 9.9% have a rate 5.0 - 5.99%
- 18.8% have a rate >= 6%
81% of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%- that's the lowest since Q1 2016.
As more Southern and Western markets see months of supply swell, we expect some continued downward pressure on prices in these areas, offering a path to improved affordability for patient buyers. More in the blog!
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
June 27, 2025 at 10:25 PM
As more Southern and Western markets see months of supply swell, we expect some continued downward pressure on prices in these areas, offering a path to improved affordability for patient buyers. More in the blog!
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
In April, the existing-home share of total sales fell to the lowest level since 2005. In this analysis, we explain why the new home market has outperformed the existing-home market, but how headwinds may slow the momentum.
blog.firstam.com/economics/in...
blog.firstam.com/economics/in...
June 20, 2025 at 4:29 PM
In April, the existing-home share of total sales fell to the lowest level since 2005. In this analysis, we explain why the new home market has outperformed the existing-home market, but how headwinds may slow the momentum.
blog.firstam.com/economics/in...
blog.firstam.com/economics/in...
Tailwinds for the MF market include a small relative backlog, growing apartment demand (as affordability constraints persist in the for-sale market) and continued growth in the prime renter-age population.
June 18, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Tailwinds for the MF market include a small relative backlog, growing apartment demand (as affordability constraints persist in the for-sale market) and continued growth in the prime renter-age population.
The headline housing starts number for May was dragged down by a 30% drop in the volatile multi-family sector. But smoothing the data shows MF permits and starts have been trending sideways-- suggesting stabilization.
June 18, 2025 at 3:59 PM
The headline housing starts number for May was dragged down by a 30% drop in the volatile multi-family sector. But smoothing the data shows MF permits and starts have been trending sideways-- suggesting stabilization.
Builders face higher financing costs, tariff uncertainty, softer demand from elevated rates, rising existing-home inventory in key markets like Texas and Florida, and higher inventories of their own. This mix is weighing on builder sentiment and likely to slow single-family construction.
June 18, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Builders face higher financing costs, tariff uncertainty, softer demand from elevated rates, rising existing-home inventory in key markets like Texas and Florida, and higher inventories of their own. This mix is weighing on builder sentiment and likely to slow single-family construction.
Historically, new homes have come with a price premium, but that gap has disappeared. In April, the median price of an existing home ($414,000) was actually higher than that of a median new home ($407,200). New home sales made up the highest share of total sales since 2005 in April.
June 18, 2025 at 3:59 PM
Historically, new homes have come with a price premium, but that gap has disappeared. In April, the median price of an existing home ($414,000) was actually higher than that of a median new home ($407,200). New home sales made up the highest share of total sales since 2005 in April.
Housing starts have plummeted to their lowest level since 2020. The MoM decline is primarily due to a decline in the volatile MF groundbreaking. SF starts were flat compared to April but down 7.3% compared to last year. A decline in SF building permits points to a weaker trend moving forward.
June 18, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Housing starts have plummeted to their lowest level since 2020. The MoM decline is primarily due to a decline in the volatile MF groundbreaking. SF starts were flat compared to April but down 7.3% compared to last year. A decline in SF building permits points to a weaker trend moving forward.
Market divergence in house price trends is below historical averages, but the differences reinforce that affordability trends can vary significantly across markets.
Read more in the blog.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
Read more in the blog.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
May 29, 2025 at 5:51 PM
Market divergence in house price trends is below historical averages, but the differences reinforce that affordability trends can vary significantly across markets.
Read more in the blog.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
Read more in the blog.
blog.firstam.com/economics/af...
Check out the blog to learn more about what's driving the increase in tenure length, and check out median tenure length across the top 50 US markets. Spoiler alert- CA markets tend to have some of the highest tenure.
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
May 23, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Check out the blog to learn more about what's driving the increase in tenure length, and check out median tenure length across the top 50 US markets. Spoiler alert- CA markets tend to have some of the highest tenure.
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
There is a strong relationship between the median length of time that people stay in their home, known as tenure, and sales activity. Historically, the median tenure length in the U.S. has been six years, but today it’s reached a historic high of nearly nine years.
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
May 23, 2025 at 4:44 PM
There is a strong relationship between the median length of time that people stay in their home, known as tenure, and sales activity. Historically, the median tenure length in the U.S. has been six years, but today it’s reached a historic high of nearly nine years.
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
blog.firstam.com/economics/pe...
Affordability discussions have typically focused on rates, income, and house prices. Nowadays, homeowners insurance premiums must also be considered. This week's analysis examines the causes of rising insurance premiums and identifies the impacted areas.
blog.firstam.com/economics/so...
blog.firstam.com/economics/so...
May 7, 2025 at 8:48 PM
Affordability discussions have typically focused on rates, income, and house prices. Nowadays, homeowners insurance premiums must also be considered. This week's analysis examines the causes of rising insurance premiums and identifies the impacted areas.
blog.firstam.com/economics/so...
blog.firstam.com/economics/so...
Pending home sales jumped 6.1% in March, as interest rate-sensitive buyers seized the opportunity presented by a 20 basis point dip in rates. Higher inventory levels also offered buyers more choices.
April 30, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Pending home sales jumped 6.1% in March, as interest rate-sensitive buyers seized the opportunity presented by a 20 basis point dip in rates. Higher inventory levels also offered buyers more choices.
Using a vacancy rate approach, we find that the housing deficit as of the recently reported Q1 2025 data is ~943,000, down from Q4 2024 (1.05 million). The housing market remains structurally undersupplied, but this is the lowest deficit measure since Q3 2019.
April 29, 2025 at 3:40 PM
Using a vacancy rate approach, we find that the housing deficit as of the recently reported Q1 2025 data is ~943,000, down from Q4 2024 (1.05 million). The housing market remains structurally undersupplied, but this is the lowest deficit measure since Q3 2019.
While not the only factor affecting market potential, the housing handcuffs [rate lock-in effect] have loosened for now. Welcome news for a housing market that has struggled to gain momentum in recent years.
More in the blog.
t.co/nFLpz9edA1
More in the blog.
t.co/nFLpz9edA1
April 18, 2025 at 5:16 PM
While not the only factor affecting market potential, the housing handcuffs [rate lock-in effect] have loosened for now. Welcome news for a housing market that has struggled to gain momentum in recent years.
More in the blog.
t.co/nFLpz9edA1
More in the blog.
t.co/nFLpz9edA1