Natalie Jones
@nataliejones.bsky.social
Energy & climate policy at IISD. Sometimes international lawyer. Working on a managed phase-out of oil and gas production in line with Paris Agreement goals.
Small fry in comparison but at least the text reaffirms 1.5C, and IPCC as the best available science.
November 22, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Small fry in comparison but at least the text reaffirms 1.5C, and IPCC as the best available science.
Also still launches the "Belem Mission to 1.5", which still has no hooks back in to the process after it produces a report.
November 22, 2025 at 2:25 PM
Also still launches the "Belem Mission to 1.5", which still has no hooks back in to the process after it produces a report.
What this text *does* still have is the establishment of a "Global Implementation Accelerator" - and it's still unclear what that is.
November 22, 2025 at 2:25 PM
What this text *does* still have is the establishment of a "Global Implementation Accelerator" - and it's still unclear what that is.
Outputs are pretty weak though. A summary report, but with no link back into the process via CMA consideration. I would be surprised if some parties didn't react strongly to this.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Outputs are pretty weak though. A summary report, but with no link back into the process via CMA consideration. I would be surprised if some parties didn't react strongly to this.
Timeline is another compromise, ending in 2027.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Timeline is another compromise, ending in 2027.
On scope, it's a compromise that I think all parties will be able to live with: all GST outcomes, but with a focus on means of implementation.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
On scope, it's a compromise that I think all parties will be able to live with: all GST outcomes, but with a focus on means of implementation.
However, on the bright side, the text decides to develop a "just transition mechanism" which is what many countries & civil society have been asking for.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
However, on the bright side, the text decides to develop a "just transition mechanism" which is what many countries & civil society have been asking for.
On 9.1 (provision of finance by developed countries), the text would establish a two-year work programme "on climate finance, including on Article 9.1 in the context of Article 9 as a a whole"
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
On 9.1 (provision of finance by developed countries), the text would establish a two-year work programme "on climate finance, including on Article 9.1 in the context of Article 9 as a a whole"
On NDCs, the text keeps the part that encourages parties to strengthen their NDCs at any time
But gone is text encouraging parties to keep to the top end of their NDC ranges.
But gone is text encouraging parties to keep to the top end of their NDC ranges.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
On NDCs, the text keeps the part that encourages parties to strengthen their NDCs at any time
But gone is text encouraging parties to keep to the top end of their NDC ranges.
But gone is text encouraging parties to keep to the top end of their NDC ranges.
It also recognises the IPCC as providing the best available science.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
It also recognises the IPCC as providing the best available science.
On the bright side, language around 1.5C is still in the draft.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
On the bright side, language around 1.5C is still in the draft.
It also launches a "Global Implementation Accelerator" - this is very poorly defined. Not at all clear what this is.
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
It also launches a "Global Implementation Accelerator" - this is very poorly defined. Not at all clear what this is.
This text would launch a "Belem Mission to 1.5C" that would essentially replicate the Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T but for mitigation and adaptation, not finance.
Since the experience of the BBR went so well...?!
Since the experience of the BBR went so well...?!
November 21, 2025 at 11:16 AM
This text would launch a "Belem Mission to 1.5C" that would essentially replicate the Baku to Belem Roadmap to 1.3T but for mitigation and adaptation, not finance.
Since the experience of the BBR went so well...?!
Since the experience of the BBR went so well...?!
But one thing I'm definitely checking out is Colombia's press conference at 2:30pm in Press Conference Room 1!
Expect: a declaration on fossil fuels
Expect: a declaration on fossil fuels
November 20, 2025 at 12:14 PM
But one thing I'm definitely checking out is Colombia's press conference at 2:30pm in Press Conference Room 1!
Expect: a declaration on fossil fuels
Expect: a declaration on fossil fuels
Next, paragraph 44. Ah, paragraph 44. The meaty one.
One option here is to annually consider NDC and BTR synthesis reports under the CMA (ie a standing agenda item) - with a reference to global stocktake outcomes including "transitioning away from fossil fuels"
One option here is to annually consider NDC and BTR synthesis reports under the CMA (ie a standing agenda item) - with a reference to global stocktake outcomes including "transitioning away from fossil fuels"
November 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Next, paragraph 44. Ah, paragraph 44. The meaty one.
One option here is to annually consider NDC and BTR synthesis reports under the CMA (ie a standing agenda item) - with a reference to global stocktake outcomes including "transitioning away from fossil fuels"
One option here is to annually consider NDC and BTR synthesis reports under the CMA (ie a standing agenda item) - with a reference to global stocktake outcomes including "transitioning away from fossil fuels"
Next, fossil fuel subsidies. "Urges Parties to work together towards phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible."
November 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
Next, fossil fuel subsidies. "Urges Parties to work together towards phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible."
On fossil fuels, one option is *convening a workshop* to discuss domestic opportunities and success stories
Another is to convene a high-level ministerial roundtable with a view to supporting countries to develop national transition roadmaps
Another is to convene a high-level ministerial roundtable with a view to supporting countries to develop national transition roadmaps
November 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
On fossil fuels, one option is *convening a workshop* to discuss domestic opportunities and success stories
Another is to convene a high-level ministerial roundtable with a view to supporting countries to develop national transition roadmaps
Another is to convene a high-level ministerial roundtable with a view to supporting countries to develop national transition roadmaps
1.5C reiterated
November 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
1.5C reiterated
It's a long document so let's zoom in on a few of the key paragraphs:
IPCC recognised as "best available science"
IPCC recognised as "best available science"
November 18, 2025 at 12:27 PM
It's a long document so let's zoom in on a few of the key paragraphs:
IPCC recognised as "best available science"
IPCC recognised as "best available science"
There's also an option for an annual high-level forum.
Several groups oppose this saying there is not enough agreement on the substance of article 2.1c to take talks to the political level.
Several groups oppose this saying there is not enough agreement on the substance of article 2.1c to take talks to the political level.
November 18, 2025 at 12:02 PM
There's also an option for an annual high-level forum.
Several groups oppose this saying there is not enough agreement on the substance of article 2.1c to take talks to the political level.
Several groups oppose this saying there is not enough agreement on the substance of article 2.1c to take talks to the political level.
The second is a "platform" option, which could work towards "tangible outcomes" such as the development of guidance and principles to inform art 2.1c implementation
All of this is extremely bracketed (not agreed)
All of this is extremely bracketed (not agreed)
November 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
The second is a "platform" option, which could work towards "tangible outcomes" such as the development of guidance and principles to inform art 2.1c implementation
All of this is extremely bracketed (not agreed)
All of this is extremely bracketed (not agreed)
The main issue here is whether the Sharm el-Sheikh dialogue on article 2.1c and its complementarity with article 9 will continue, and if so in what form.
Option 1 (no further work) is still present (reflecting the wishes of the LMDCs and Arab Group):
Option 1 (no further work) is still present (reflecting the wishes of the LMDCs and Arab Group):
November 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
The main issue here is whether the Sharm el-Sheikh dialogue on article 2.1c and its complementarity with article 9 will continue, and if so in what form.
Option 1 (no further work) is still present (reflecting the wishes of the LMDCs and Arab Group):
Option 1 (no further work) is still present (reflecting the wishes of the LMDCs and Arab Group):
On outputs, parties are still split as to whether the dialogue will form the basis of a summary report and then a CMA decision.
November 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
On outputs, parties are still split as to whether the dialogue will form the basis of a summary report and then a CMA decision.
On timeline, parties are still just as split, with no consensus on whether the dialogue should last only until next year or run until 2028.
November 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
On timeline, parties are still just as split, with no consensus on whether the dialogue should last only until next year or run until 2028.
On scope, parties have come significantly closer together. Yesterday in informal consultations AILAC, the EU and China all offered bridging proposals, which are now reflected in this para
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
November 18, 2025 at 12:01 PM
On scope, parties have come significantly closer together. Yesterday in informal consultations AILAC, the EU and China all offered bridging proposals, which are now reflected in this para
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...