Mike Simonsen
@mikesimonsen.bsky.social
I help people understand the housing market. Now: Chief Economist, Compass. Prev: Founder CEO Altos Research (acq by HWMedia)
Pinned
Mike Simonsen
@mikesimonsen.bsky.social
· Sep 22
Why aren't home prices falling like you might expect now?
It's what Chip Case called "downside stickiness." When the market slows, sellers don't want to sell at a loss, so they withdraw listings, which keeps supply limited.
That's what we're seeing now. THREAD 📽️🧵👇
It's what Chip Case called "downside stickiness." When the market slows, sellers don't want to sell at a loss, so they withdraw listings, which keeps supply limited.
That's what we're seeing now. THREAD 📽️🧵👇
New Podcast Alert!
Real Estate Conversations is where I get to interview the smartest people in the industry to learn from their expertise.
Everyone cares about mortgage rates now so episode 1 is with the mortgage rates GOAT, Matt Graham.
open.spotify.com/episode/3gXc...
Real Estate Conversations is where I get to interview the smartest people in the industry to learn from their expertise.
Everyone cares about mortgage rates now so episode 1 is with the mortgage rates GOAT, Matt Graham.
open.spotify.com/episode/3gXc...
Understanding Mortgage Rates Today with Matt Graham, COO of Mortgage News Daily
Spotify video
open.spotify.com
October 8, 2025 at 11:15 PM
New Podcast Alert!
Real Estate Conversations is where I get to interview the smartest people in the industry to learn from their expertise.
Everyone cares about mortgage rates now so episode 1 is with the mortgage rates GOAT, Matt Graham.
open.spotify.com/episode/3gXc...
Real Estate Conversations is where I get to interview the smartest people in the industry to learn from their expertise.
Everyone cares about mortgage rates now so episode 1 is with the mortgage rates GOAT, Matt Graham.
open.spotify.com/episode/3gXc...
Doing some work with the Compass data team today. Thought this looked cool
October 2, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Doing some work with the Compass data team today. Thought this looked cool
Looking at the MBA purchase mortgage applications on a 13-week rolling average really highlights the current trend
October 1, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Looking at the MBA purchase mortgage applications on a 13-week rolling average really highlights the current trend
Such excellent insight and a fascinating story!
During what turned out to be a 13 day government shutdown in October 2013 CEA released a report that projected 120,000 private sector jobs lost.
It ended up being 227,000 private sector jobs gained--even more than any of the prior four months.
It ended up being 227,000 private sector jobs gained--even more than any of the prior four months.
October 1, 2025 at 2:51 PM
Such excellent insight and a fascinating story!
Existing home sales are inching above last year as reported by NAR.
In our weekly pending contracts, the slight growth over 2024 continues.
Last year the brief mortgage rate dip to 6.1% in September lifted the sales rate for Q4. Will be interesting if we can beat that this year.
In our weekly pending contracts, the slight growth over 2024 continues.
Last year the brief mortgage rate dip to 6.1% in September lifted the sales rate for Q4. Will be interesting if we can beat that this year.
September 25, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Existing home sales are inching above last year as reported by NAR.
In our weekly pending contracts, the slight growth over 2024 continues.
Last year the brief mortgage rate dip to 6.1% in September lifted the sales rate for Q4. Will be interesting if we can beat that this year.
In our weekly pending contracts, the slight growth over 2024 continues.
Last year the brief mortgage rate dip to 6.1% in September lifted the sales rate for Q4. Will be interesting if we can beat that this year.
New home sales big print feels like survey noise to me. What would be the sudden catalyst?
Existing Home Sales tomorrow from NAR should show YoY gains but nothing in the real-time data says massive shift.
Existing Home Sales tomorrow from NAR should show YoY gains but nothing in the real-time data says massive shift.
September 24, 2025 at 2:24 PM
New home sales big print feels like survey noise to me. What would be the sudden catalyst?
Existing Home Sales tomorrow from NAR should show YoY gains but nothing in the real-time data says massive shift.
Existing Home Sales tomorrow from NAR should show YoY gains but nothing in the real-time data says massive shift.
Reposted by Mike Simonsen
An interesting comment @mikesimonsen.bsky.social made in his weekly housing video for Compass this week is the sellers withdrawing listings aren’t those with tons of equity, it’s ones who bought more recently who don’t have that equity cushion and can’t afford to take a lower asking price.
September 24, 2025 at 1:55 PM
An interesting comment @mikesimonsen.bsky.social made in his weekly housing video for Compass this week is the sellers withdrawing listings aren’t those with tons of equity, it’s ones who bought more recently who don’t have that equity cushion and can’t afford to take a lower asking price.
Why aren't home prices falling like you might expect now?
It's what Chip Case called "downside stickiness." When the market slows, sellers don't want to sell at a loss, so they withdraw listings, which keeps supply limited.
That's what we're seeing now. THREAD 📽️🧵👇
It's what Chip Case called "downside stickiness." When the market slows, sellers don't want to sell at a loss, so they withdraw listings, which keeps supply limited.
That's what we're seeing now. THREAD 📽️🧵👇
September 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Why aren't home prices falling like you might expect now?
It's what Chip Case called "downside stickiness." When the market slows, sellers don't want to sell at a loss, so they withdraw listings, which keeps supply limited.
That's what we're seeing now. THREAD 📽️🧵👇
It's what Chip Case called "downside stickiness." When the market slows, sellers don't want to sell at a loss, so they withdraw listings, which keeps supply limited.
That's what we're seeing now. THREAD 📽️🧵👇
Everyone's talking Fed of course, but the real news of the day may be the new construction data
September 17, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Everyone's talking Fed of course, but the real news of the day may be the new construction data
Reposted by Mike Simonsen
days on market context H/T @mikesimonsen.bsky.social
September 17, 2025 at 12:41 PM
days on market context H/T @mikesimonsen.bsky.social
Three observations that continue to surprise me
A) Waymo taxis are just incredible
B) Tesla has a long way to catch up
C) maga is a deeply decel movement
A) Waymo taxis are just incredible
B) Tesla has a long way to catch up
C) maga is a deeply decel movement
I was a self-driving skeptic for a long time because I associated it with Tesla's scammy and illegal approach to the tech, but now I'm a convert. Biking and walking around San Francisco, I find sharing the streets with Waymos to be *much* safer than sharing them with many human drivers.
100 years from now when transportation is fully autonomous, people aren’t gonna believe we used to drive ourselves around
“So people just had to get really good at driving so no one died in crashes?”
“Oh, people died all the time. There were actually more car deaths than murders every year.”
“So people just had to get really good at driving so no one died in crashes?”
“Oh, people died all the time. There were actually more car deaths than murders every year.”
September 10, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Three observations that continue to surprise me
A) Waymo taxis are just incredible
B) Tesla has a long way to catch up
C) maga is a deeply decel movement
A) Waymo taxis are just incredible
B) Tesla has a long way to catch up
C) maga is a deeply decel movement
Super proud of my former wife Heather, who just raised $20 million for her medical device startup, Boomerang Medical.
The company is so cool: Implantable device to stimulate the nerves and control stress-related gut diseases like colitis and IBD.
t.co/6iYAA6Ysmw
The company is so cool: Implantable device to stimulate the nerves and control stress-related gut diseases like colitis and IBD.
t.co/6iYAA6Ysmw
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250904154790/en/Boomerang-Medical-Raises-%2420-Million-Series-B-to-Advance-Pivotal-Trial-of-Neuromodulation-in-Inflammatory-Bowel-Disease
t.co
September 5, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Super proud of my former wife Heather, who just raised $20 million for her medical device startup, Boomerang Medical.
The company is so cool: Implantable device to stimulate the nerves and control stress-related gut diseases like colitis and IBD.
t.co/6iYAA6Ysmw
The company is so cool: Implantable device to stimulate the nerves and control stress-related gut diseases like colitis and IBD.
t.co/6iYAA6Ysmw
I'm building an opt-in mailing list for my weekly housing market videos and commentary. It's open to everyone.
You can add yourself to the list here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
You can add yourself to the list here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
September 2, 2025 at 7:51 PM
I'm building an opt-in mailing list for my weekly housing market videos and commentary. It's open to everyone.
You can add yourself to the list here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
You can add yourself to the list here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
The Great Stay has us sitting in all jobs longer, and it's true in Big Tech too. Staying in our jobs, staying in our towns, staying in our homes.
A weak hiring market is contributing to a weak housing market, and probably vise versa.
A weak hiring market is contributing to a weak housing market, and probably vise versa.
Average tenure at Meta increased from ~2 years to ~4 years since the 2023 layoffs. Similar changes across most of Big Tech. Basically, folks working in Big Tech are not leaving like before.
If that's not a smell on the market, not sure what is
If that's not a smell on the market, not sure what is
State of the software engineering job market in 2025: Big Tech has started to hire more software engineers.
Also: tenure at Big Tech has dramatically increased since the 2023 layoffs (surprising!)
A lot more details in today's deepdive: newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/state-of-t...
Also: tenure at Big Tech has dramatically increased since the 2023 layoffs (surprising!)
A lot more details in today's deepdive: newsletter.pragmaticengineer.com/p/state-of-t...
September 2, 2025 at 7:34 PM
The Great Stay has us sitting in all jobs longer, and it's true in Big Tech too. Staying in our jobs, staying in our towns, staying in our homes.
A weak hiring market is contributing to a weak housing market, and probably vise versa.
A weak hiring market is contributing to a weak housing market, and probably vise versa.
NEW: Home prices are definitely trending lower.
Here's that the latest data says.
I look at three price measures today. Plus inventory is not growing, but sales are.
Thread from my weekly market video for Compass Intelligence. 🧵📽️👇
youtu.be/bqKHOfLCVhQ?...
1/7
Here's that the latest data says.
I look at three price measures today. Plus inventory is not growing, but sales are.
Thread from my weekly market video for Compass Intelligence. 🧵📽️👇
youtu.be/bqKHOfLCVhQ?...
1/7
Home prices are trending lower Here are this signs to watch.
YouTube video by Compass
youtu.be
September 2, 2025 at 7:10 PM
NEW: Home prices are definitely trending lower.
Here's that the latest data says.
I look at three price measures today. Plus inventory is not growing, but sales are.
Thread from my weekly market video for Compass Intelligence. 🧵📽️👇
youtu.be/bqKHOfLCVhQ?...
1/7
Here's that the latest data says.
I look at three price measures today. Plus inventory is not growing, but sales are.
Thread from my weekly market video for Compass Intelligence. 🧵📽️👇
youtu.be/bqKHOfLCVhQ?...
1/7
Home prices are about to go negative again.
Here's an illustration of what's under way.
Here's an illustration of what's under way.
August 16, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Home prices are about to go negative again.
Here's an illustration of what's under way.
Here's an illustration of what's under way.
Newsom’s social media is next level
August 15, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Newsom’s social media is next level
When home sellers don't get the offer they want, one option is to withdraw the listing.
How much are cancellations effecting the market right now?
Lots of people asking that question. Here's how I look at it. As a percentage of new listings - how many cancel?
Some data:
How much are cancellations effecting the market right now?
Lots of people asking that question. Here's how I look at it. As a percentage of new listings - how many cancel?
Some data:
August 7, 2025 at 9:22 PM
When home sellers don't get the offer they want, one option is to withdraw the listing.
How much are cancellations effecting the market right now?
Lots of people asking that question. Here's how I look at it. As a percentage of new listings - how many cancel?
Some data:
How much are cancellations effecting the market right now?
Lots of people asking that question. Here's how I look at it. As a percentage of new listings - how many cancel?
Some data:
This week in the Compass Intelligence weekly housing market data:
Everyone knows that the price pressure is on. Did you know that have been gradually FEWER new listings each week?
Sellers are staying away.
That implies a cap on inventory growth for the rest of the year.
1/6
Everyone knows that the price pressure is on. Did you know that have been gradually FEWER new listings each week?
Sellers are staying away.
That implies a cap on inventory growth for the rest of the year.
1/6
August 4, 2025 at 9:07 PM
This week in the Compass Intelligence weekly housing market data:
Everyone knows that the price pressure is on. Did you know that have been gradually FEWER new listings each week?
Sellers are staying away.
That implies a cap on inventory growth for the rest of the year.
1/6
Everyone knows that the price pressure is on. Did you know that have been gradually FEWER new listings each week?
Sellers are staying away.
That implies a cap on inventory growth for the rest of the year.
1/6
11:30pm update. Problem fixed.
July 26, 2025 at 3:54 PM
11:30pm update. Problem fixed.
Owner fixing the locks with a hammer on our Virginia AirBnB at 10:30 on Friday night. Real estate is passive income, guys!
July 26, 2025 at 2:24 AM
Owner fixing the locks with a hammer on our Virginia AirBnB at 10:30 on Friday night. Real estate is passive income, guys!
This interview with Anthropic cofounder Benjamin Mann is really the best, thoughtful insights on AI safety, economic implications, and what’s next that I’ve heard in a long time.
open.spotify.com/episode/2dhE...
open.spotify.com/episode/2dhE...
Anthropic co-founder on quitting OpenAI, AGI predictions, $100M talent wars, 20% unemployment, and the nightmare scenarios keeping him up at night | Ben Mann
Lenny's Podcast: Product | Growth | Career · Episode
open.spotify.com
July 24, 2025 at 1:32 AM
This interview with Anthropic cofounder Benjamin Mann is really the best, thoughtful insights on AI safety, economic implications, and what’s next that I’ve heard in a long time.
open.spotify.com/episode/2dhE...
open.spotify.com/episode/2dhE...
Two hypotheses from the comments that have potential:
1. California employment is deteriorating faster than elsewhere
2. Demand-side cash programs are ending, and they were more important in expensive CA than elsewhere.
1. California employment is deteriorating faster than elsewhere
2. Demand-side cash programs are ending, and they were more important in expensive CA than elsewhere.
California unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year.
Help me answer: Why now?
Help me answer: Why now?
July 22, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Two hypotheses from the comments that have potential:
1. California employment is deteriorating faster than elsewhere
2. Demand-side cash programs are ending, and they were more important in expensive CA than elsewhere.
1. California employment is deteriorating faster than elsewhere
2. Demand-side cash programs are ending, and they were more important in expensive CA than elsewhere.
California unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year.
Help me answer: Why now?
Help me answer: Why now?
July 21, 2025 at 10:44 PM
California unsold inventory is at levels not seen in 8 years. Up 37% over last year.
Help me answer: Why now?
Help me answer: Why now?
Logan on why we’re *this close* on rates
July 21, 2025 at 8:23 PM
Logan on why we’re *this close* on rates