Michael Lowry
@michaelrlowry.bsky.social
Hurricane Specialist and Storm Surge Expert at Miami's WPLG-TV Local 10 News. Posts my own.
http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry
http://linktr.ee/michaelrlowry
Pinned
Michael Lowry
@michaelrlowry.bsky.social
· May 31
Opinion | How Far Can We Degrade Our Hurricane Forecasting Before People End Up Dead?
www.nytimes.com
It's been death by a million papercuts to U.S. weather forecasts by the Trump administration, but yesterday's detailed 2026 budget feels like a deathblow. In today's @nytimes.com I ask: How far can we degrade our hurricane forecasting before people end up dead?
Writing isn't in my CV but I do a lot of it nowadays! I find writing done right the best way to message important science and forecasts. Looking forward to joining @mattlanza.bsky.social and @kmalloy.bsky.social tomorrow at 11:30 AM ET to discuss our approaches to striking a chord online.
Join us tomorrow to learn how experienced blog writers in diverse atmospheric science backgrounds develop compelling posts, from the idea stage to the final polish.
Register here: https://bit.ly/4nrVS9S
Register here: https://bit.ly/4nrVS9S
November 12, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Writing isn't in my CV but I do a lot of it nowadays! I find writing done right the best way to message important science and forecasts. Looking forward to joining @mattlanza.bsky.social and @kmalloy.bsky.social tomorrow at 11:30 AM ET to discuss our approaches to striking a chord online.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Overlooking Pearl River near Bogalusa, LA @vincentledvina.bsky.social
November 12, 2025 at 4:50 AM
Overlooking Pearl River near Bogalusa, LA @vincentledvina.bsky.social
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Aurora color guide! What creates the different shades?
Different atoms getting "excited" at different altitudes
The bright reds are a sign of a particularly intense event
Different atoms getting "excited" at different altitudes
The bright reds are a sign of a particularly intense event
November 12, 2025 at 3:34 AM
Aurora color guide! What creates the different shades?
Different atoms getting "excited" at different altitudes
The bright reds are a sign of a particularly intense event
Different atoms getting "excited" at different altitudes
The bright reds are a sign of a particularly intense event
This is a wild stat. Great find @pppapin.bsky.social!
November 11, 2025 at 10:43 PM
This is a wild stat. Great find @pppapin.bsky.social!
Reposted by Michael Lowry
57˚ may not sound all that cold to many of you.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
November 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
57˚ may not sound all that cold to many of you.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
But that was this morning's low in Key West, Florida, tying their "record coldest so early in fall" with four other dates in 1966, 1955, 1913.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993.
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
November 7, 2025 at 10:42 AM
This may be the coldest early November outbreak in parts of Florida and the Southeast since 1993.
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
About 2 dozen daily record lows in jeopardy on Veterans Day.
More deets: weather.com/forecast/reg...
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Out of all the stats that will be in history books from Melissa, this is the most astounding to me.
GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.
GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.
November 6, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Out of all the stats that will be in history books from Melissa, this is the most astounding to me.
GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.
GLM data was recording a peak flash rate of 700 strikes per minute — nearly 12 per second — as it made landfall on Jamaica. That’s rewriting our understanding flash density in tropical cyclones.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Western Pacific in focus today as Kalmaegi has caused devastating flooding in Philippines and a new depression looks likely to threaten Luzon as a super typhoon this weekend. Also highlight @michaelrlowry.bsky.social post about just how poor GFS has been this hurricane season. tinyurl.com/du2smex7
Kalmaegi produces serious flooding in central Philippines
48 confirmed dead and more missing, new system likely to threaten northern Philippines as a supertyphoon this weekend.
tinyurl.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Western Pacific in focus today as Kalmaegi has caused devastating flooding in Philippines and a new depression looks likely to threaten Luzon as a super typhoon this weekend. Also highlight @michaelrlowry.bsky.social post about just how poor GFS has been this hurricane season. tinyurl.com/du2smex7
Reposted by Michael Lowry
We're hiring for a Software Engineer @cira-csu.bsky.social! I can personally attest to the team that the candidate would be joining - they're knowledgeable, humble, and genuine. If you are interested or know anyone that might be, reach out to me! PD here:
jobs.colostate.edu/postings/168...
jobs.colostate.edu/postings/168...
25-115 AWIPS II Software Engineer
The individual in this position will be part of a team responsible for the design and development of AWIPS II applications in Java and Python. Applications will involve graphical tools that assist for...
jobs.colostate.edu
November 3, 2025 at 11:06 PM
We're hiring for a Software Engineer @cira-csu.bsky.social! I can personally attest to the team that the candidate would be joining - they're knowledgeable, humble, and genuine. If you are interested or know anyone that might be, reach out to me! PD here:
jobs.colostate.edu/postings/168...
jobs.colostate.edu/postings/168...
Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.
This Hurricane Season, Two Forecast Models Stand Out, but for Very Different Reasons
Google’s newest DeepMind hurricane model was the star of the 2025 hurricane season while America’s flagship weather model stumbled to new lows
michaelrlowry.substack.com
November 3, 2025 at 7:41 PM
Today's my final routine newsletter of the hurricane season, so I thought I'd dig into the preliminary results of our forecast models. Google's DeepMind scorched the competition, but for America's flagship weather model, it was a season to forget.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
And here is the same, but for all 13 storms in the entire season so far. "OFCL" is the NHC's forecast, and "GDMI" is the Google #DeepMind ensemble mean and is the leading model for both track and intensity this season.
[2/3]
[2/3]
October 31, 2025 at 4:04 PM
And here is the same, but for all 13 storms in the entire season so far. "OFCL" is the NHC's forecast, and "GDMI" is the Google #DeepMind ensemble mean and is the leading model for both track and intensity this season.
[2/3]
[2/3]
Reposted by Michael Lowry
With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime.
[1/3]
[1/3]
October 31, 2025 at 4:04 PM
With #Melissa now an extratropical cyclone in the north Atlantic, here's a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification stats for the storm's 10-day lifetime.
[1/3]
[1/3]
Glad there's a time change tonight
November 2, 2025 at 3:56 AM
Glad there's a time change tonight
Unbelievable. This game.
November 2, 2025 at 3:38 AM
Unbelievable. This game.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Game-tying home runs to tie a game in the 9th inning of World Series Game 7:
Miguel Rojas tonight
End of list!
Miguel Rojas tonight
End of list!
November 2, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Game-tying home runs to tie a game in the 9th inning of World Series Game 7:
Miguel Rojas tonight
End of list!
Miguel Rojas tonight
End of list!
Holy smokes! Clinch!
November 2, 2025 at 3:15 AM
Holy smokes! Clinch!
Wow! Blue Jays playing with some 🔥 🔥
November 2, 2025 at 2:34 AM
Wow! Blue Jays playing with some 🔥 🔥
Reposted by Michael Lowry
There's a decent chance that HURRICANE SEASON 2025 IS OVER. Hostile upper winds are increasingly dominating the tropics. If this is it, the season ends with near normal numbers EXCEPT for 3 Category 5's including Melissa, which was stunningly and tragically off the charts. More at HurricaneIntel.com
November 1, 2025 at 2:39 PM
There's a decent chance that HURRICANE SEASON 2025 IS OVER. Hostile upper winds are increasingly dominating the tropics. If this is it, the season ends with near normal numbers EXCEPT for 3 Category 5's including Melissa, which was stunningly and tragically off the charts. More at HurricaneIntel.com
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
October 31, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here are updated verifications for 2025, AL/EP combined, EMXI not available. Impressed that NHC is beating everything, including consensus, for intensity, and everything but Google DeepMind (GDMI) for track. Rough year for GFS and the statistical intensity aids. Banner year for GDMI.
Melissa lifted the 2025 hurricane season to above average levels, sealing yet another comeback season after a bizarre peak-season drought. Bermuda saw winds to hurricane strength overnight, but today we finally bid Melissa adieu as it turns extratropical.
Melissa Brushes Bermuda Overnight and Headed Out to Sea
Melissa will transition to a strong wintertime storm today and pass near the southern Avalon Peninsula in Atlantic Canada overnight
michaelrlowry.substack.com
October 31, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Melissa lifted the 2025 hurricane season to above average levels, sealing yet another comeback season after a bizarre peak-season drought. Bermuda saw winds to hurricane strength overnight, but today we finally bid Melissa adieu as it turns extratropical.
Reposted by Michael Lowry
A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.
October 30, 2025 at 6:27 PM
A look at the devastating power loss across Jamaica following the historic crossing of Hurricane Melissa, captured by NOAA-21.
I pack today's newsletter full of spectacular visuals of Melissa from @cira-csu.bsky.social and dig deep on why what they show us matters. "Superintensity," "phytoplankton," and "chlorophyll a" aren't typically part of the hurricane discussion, but they are today. ⬇️
Melissa Racing Away from the Bahamas, Hurricane Warning for Bermuda
Melissa’s center expected to pass west of Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane by the midnight hour Thursday into Friday
michaelrlowry.substack.com
October 30, 2025 at 3:59 PM
I pack today's newsletter full of spectacular visuals of Melissa from @cira-csu.bsky.social and dig deep on why what they show us matters. "Superintensity," "phytoplankton," and "chlorophyll a" aren't typically part of the hurricane discussion, but they are today. ⬇️
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Viewed by #CopernicusEU Sentinel satellites, hurricane #Melissa seen over the Caribbean, currently the strongest tropical cyclone of the year worldwide.
Our thoughts are with everyone affected. Please follow guidance from local authorities and stay safe.
@noaa.gov @euspa.bsky.social @eumetsat.int
Our thoughts are with everyone affected. Please follow guidance from local authorities and stay safe.
@noaa.gov @euspa.bsky.social @eumetsat.int
October 30, 2025 at 9:17 AM
Viewed by #CopernicusEU Sentinel satellites, hurricane #Melissa seen over the Caribbean, currently the strongest tropical cyclone of the year worldwide.
Our thoughts are with everyone affected. Please follow guidance from local authorities and stay safe.
@noaa.gov @euspa.bsky.social @eumetsat.int
Our thoughts are with everyone affected. Please follow guidance from local authorities and stay safe.
@noaa.gov @euspa.bsky.social @eumetsat.int
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa:
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
October 29, 2025 at 10:14 PM
Multi-panel view of the last few days of Hurricane Melissa:
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
↖️ GOES-19 infrared brightness temp
↗️ GOES-19 visible satellite
↙️ Hurricane hunter planes & flight paths
↘️ Recon-derived flight level wind swath
⬇️ Estimated minimum pressure from recon dropsondes
Reposted by Michael Lowry
Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.
October 29, 2025 at 5:54 PM
Regarding the sonde from yesterday morning with the 219-kt spot wind, highest dropsonde wind ever seen in a TC, AOML/HRD shared the raw data and I took a look this morning. They’ll have the final call, but I see nothing wrong with the ob and I suspect it’s going to hold up.