Michael Grose
@michaelgrose.bsky.social
Australian climate scientist - projections, attribution, impacts, communications etc. @IPCC_CH AR6 lead author (Atlas). Views are my own
I will be helping give a webinar on the climate and hazard work underpinning the Australian National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), Monday 20 Oct - please register! events.teams.microsoft.com/event/b1585f...
Microsoft Virtual Events Powered by Teams
Microsoft Virtual Events Powered by Teams
events.teams.microsoft.com
October 11, 2025 at 1:13 AM
I will be helping give a webinar on the climate and hazard work underpinning the Australian National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA), Monday 20 Oct - please register! events.teams.microsoft.com/event/b1585f...
It was interesting to think through some interesting questions on this - what will humanity look like in 10,000 years? I make a couple of points about climate change for this interesting article in Cosmos cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climat...
The stranger in the mirror: how will a hotter earth change humanity?
Climate change is the greatest challenge in human history – current trends could have us eventually approaching extremes not seen on our planet for 15 million years. Will a destabilised global climate...
cosmosmagazine.com
July 31, 2025 at 1:55 AM
It was interesting to think through some interesting questions on this - what will humanity look like in 10,000 years? I make a couple of points about climate change for this interesting article in Cosmos cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climat...
Reposted by Michael Grose
Dr Michael Grose gives his talk on climate update. Six supported datasets agree in global mean temperature trends
June 24, 2025 at 12:08 AM
Dr Michael Grose gives his talk on climate update. Six supported datasets agree in global mean temperature trends
Reposted by Michael Grose
Just one more week to apply for this PhD project! Details below
I'm excited to be advertising a PhD project on climate change projections under net zero emissions and overshoot scenarios! Applications close 23rd May.
May 15, 2025 at 11:30 PM
Just one more week to apply for this PhD project! Details below
Please come to this webinar next week, an important (and always hot) topic and a lot of things to talk about.
I will try to be fair and balanced, but having different perspectives is really important
nesp2climate.com.au/webinar-clim...
I will try to be fair and balanced, but having different perspectives is really important
nesp2climate.com.au/webinar-clim...
Webinar: Climate tipping points — the science and risk - NESP 2 climate
Explore the science and risks of climate tipping points and what they mean for Australia when informing climate risk decision-making.
nesp2climate.com.au
May 15, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Please come to this webinar next week, an important (and always hot) topic and a lot of things to talk about.
I will try to be fair and balanced, but having different perspectives is really important
nesp2climate.com.au/webinar-clim...
I will try to be fair and balanced, but having different perspectives is really important
nesp2climate.com.au/webinar-clim...
Some comments from me included
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05...
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05...
Rainfall maps offer ominous insight where Australia's climate is headed
As South Australia and Victoria continue to face drought and unseasonable heat, there has been a notable absence of major rain systems. So, what's going on?
www.abc.net.au
May 13, 2025 at 2:03 AM
Some comments from me included
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05...
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-05...
Happy to be a very small contributor to this nice paper from UniMelb student Alex and supervisors @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and @drjobrown.bsky.social well done Alex!
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
Climate Stabilisation Under Net Zero CO2 Emissions
Temperature stabilization does not occur immediately after net zero CO2 emissions at both the global and local levels The global mean temperature stabilizes 124 years after the cessation of emiss...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
March 19, 2025 at 11:52 PM
Happy to be a very small contributor to this nice paper from UniMelb student Alex and supervisors @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social and @drjobrown.bsky.social well done Alex!
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...
really interesting analysis of 2023 and 2024 in the new WMO SotC - worth a look!
The new WMO State of the Climate report has a section by Gavin Schmidt and me on attributing exceptional 2023 and 2024 warmth.
We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery:
We find that while 2024 can be well explained by changes in forcings and internal variability, 2023 remains more of a mystery:
March 19, 2025 at 6:15 AM
really interesting analysis of 2023 and 2024 in the new WMO SotC - worth a look!
Reposted by Michael Grose
We're looking for a postdoc to help understand and define the factors that make extreme rain effects more impactful, including clustering of heavy events or coincident heavy rain with strong winds. Is this you? Apply at jobs.anu.edu.au/jobs/postdoc...
Postdoctoral/Research Fellow - Canberra / ACT, ACT, Australia
Classification: Academic Level A/BSalary package: $85,010 - $131,227 per annum plus 17% superannuationTerm: Full-time, Continuing (Contingent Funded)
This position is continuing (contingent funded). T...
jobs.anu.edu.au
March 19, 2025 at 5:17 AM
We're looking for a postdoc to help understand and define the factors that make extreme rain effects more impactful, including clustering of heavy events or coincident heavy rain with strong winds. Is this you? Apply at jobs.anu.edu.au/jobs/postdoc...
Thinking about the state of - things - I found this useful to watch back. If you don’t want spoilers, I recommend watching the whole thing – the first half includes a really nice demo: www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfh...
March 18, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Thinking about the state of - things - I found this useful to watch back. If you don’t want spoilers, I recommend watching the whole thing – the first half includes a really nice demo: www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTfh...
Reposted by Michael Grose
Hi - I'd like to share this story of what is happening at NOAA GFDL, where some of my colleagues and I worked until the mass firings at NOAA last week.
"...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"
"...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"
NOAA firings hit the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting
Dismissed researchers were improving severe weather predictions
www.science.org
March 5, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Hi - I'd like to share this story of what is happening at NOAA GFDL, where some of my colleagues and I worked until the mass firings at NOAA last week.
"...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"
"...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"
We have organised an online workshop for applications that will need to select subsets of models in CMIP7, and how it can be improved over CMIP6 - both scientific and technical aspects.
Please register if you're keen!
Please register if you're keen!
We are pleased to announce an exciting virtual workshop on streamlining the model selection process in collaboration with #CORDEX, #ISIMIP, #ISMIP7 and #GlacierMIP!
🗓️ Workshop date: 5th February 2025
⏰ Workshop time: 19:00-22:00 UTC
More details and registration 👉 wcrp-cmip.org/event/model-...
🗓️ Workshop date: 5th February 2025
⏰ Workshop time: 19:00-22:00 UTC
More details and registration 👉 wcrp-cmip.org/event/model-...
January 22, 2025 at 9:38 PM
We have organised an online workshop for applications that will need to select subsets of models in CMIP7, and how it can be improved over CMIP6 - both scientific and technical aspects.
Please register if you're keen!
Please register if you're keen!
Back in 2021 I was very privileged to play a small part in the 'megafires' section in the 10 new insights in climate science - it was a good choice by the editors at the time, and has only proven more relevant since 10insightsclimate.science/year-2021/3-...
January 13, 2025 at 11:47 PM
Back in 2021 I was very privileged to play a small part in the 'megafires' section in the 10 new insights in climate science - it was a good choice by the editors at the time, and has only proven more relevant since 10insightsclimate.science/year-2021/3-...
This is a good video about a topic that is too important to leave it to the podcasters and maniacs.
global population growth has peaked and most places will see population declines and demographic shifts in coming decades (or already are).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4Xh...
global population growth has peaked and most places will see population declines and demographic shifts in coming decades (or already are).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4Xh...
Baby Bust: Why Conservatives are Obsessed with Birth Rates Now
YouTube video by Tom Nicholas
www.youtube.com
January 3, 2025 at 12:33 PM
This is a good video about a topic that is too important to leave it to the podcasters and maniacs.
global population growth has peaked and most places will see population declines and demographic shifts in coming decades (or already are).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4Xh...
global population growth has peaked and most places will see population declines and demographic shifts in coming decades (or already are).
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4Xh...
The authors on the recent commentary on the tipping point concept (including critiques, links to 1.5 deg etc.) are sharing parts of their discussions and follow ups - nice to get further insights into their discourse!
This WEF video is funny for presenting a science-managed earth - but also...
This WEF video is funny for presenting a science-managed earth - but also...
In a great dicussion with @bobkopp.net @lisgilmore.bsky.social & other authors of the new paper critiquing ever expanding #tippingpoints frames in #climate science and policy, I showed this bizarro #WEF view of a science-managed Earth. The full chat: revkin.substack.com/p/a-watchwor... #greensky 🧪
December 18, 2024 at 11:19 AM
The authors on the recent commentary on the tipping point concept (including critiques, links to 1.5 deg etc.) are sharing parts of their discussions and follow ups - nice to get further insights into their discourse!
This WEF video is funny for presenting a science-managed earth - but also...
This WEF video is funny for presenting a science-managed earth - but also...
Hiya, I'm looking for papers, books, websites etc. about climate, climate change and human evolution - long-term past but also speculative stuff about the future (including far future).
Any suggestions much appreciated thanks!
Any suggestions much appreciated thanks!
December 18, 2024 at 11:03 AM
Hiya, I'm looking for papers, books, websites etc. about climate, climate change and human evolution - long-term past but also speculative stuff about the future (including far future).
Any suggestions much appreciated thanks!
Any suggestions much appreciated thanks!
An important message, but importantly, both A) global temperature roughly plateaus, but ALSO, B) regional climate continues to change, including sea level rise and plausibly Antarctic sea ice reduction, see study led by @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social here esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
December 4, 2024 at 10:00 PM
An important message, but importantly, both A) global temperature roughly plateaus, but ALSO, B) regional climate continues to change, including sea level rise and plausibly Antarctic sea ice reduction, see study led by @andrewkingclimate.bsky.social here esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/...
Markets need information to operate well, in a recent discussion I wondered aloud what would be the result if real estate ads were legislated to do climate disclosures - so I mocked one up.
December 3, 2024 at 1:37 AM
Markets need information to operate well, in a recent discussion I wondered aloud what would be the result if real estate ads were legislated to do climate disclosures - so I mocked one up.
Looking for recommendations for reading on the Little Ice Age, its impacts and interactions with other historical events and changes - I'm half way through the epic Global Crisis by Geoffrey Parker, and looking for other perspectives (and possibly shorter reads, hah)
November 25, 2024 at 3:41 AM
Looking for recommendations for reading on the Little Ice Age, its impacts and interactions with other historical events and changes - I'm half way through the epic Global Crisis by Geoffrey Parker, and looking for other perspectives (and possibly shorter reads, hah)
Hi there, just joined bluesky (leaving twitter) - interested in discussions mainly about climate science topics in Australia and internationally, but also interested in various other topics too.
I post things only occasionally, but I try to make them interesting 👍
I post things only occasionally, but I try to make them interesting 👍
November 25, 2024 at 3:37 AM
Hi there, just joined bluesky (leaving twitter) - interested in discussions mainly about climate science topics in Australia and internationally, but also interested in various other topics too.
I post things only occasionally, but I try to make them interesting 👍
I post things only occasionally, but I try to make them interesting 👍
Reposted by Michael Grose
Great illustration. Starting the responsibility clock in 1960, the global north had burned through its fair p/c share of the 1.5C budget by about 1990. Now we're nearly 3x.
What about China? Don't underestimate how many people live in China. Still under fair share.
What about China? Don't underestimate how many people live in China. Still under fair share.
We find that ambitious mitigation to reach net zero by 2050 in all countries could limit warming to 1.5°C - which is crucial - but the global North would overshoot its collective fair share of the 1.5°C carbon budget by 3 times, appropriating half of the global South’s fair share in the process. 4/
November 24, 2024 at 10:45 PM
Great illustration. Starting the responsibility clock in 1960, the global north had burned through its fair p/c share of the 1.5C budget by about 1990. Now we're nearly 3x.
What about China? Don't underestimate how many people live in China. Still under fair share.
What about China? Don't underestimate how many people live in China. Still under fair share.