Matthew Bowes
@mbowes.bsky.social
(He/him) Posting about public policy, housing and economics. Associate at the Grattan Institute.
https://grattan.edu.au/expert/matthew-bowes/
https://grattan.edu.au/expert/matthew-bowes/
These changes may sound small, but the impacts build up quickly, as this great Inflection Points chart shows. Following major planning reforms in Auckland in 2016, house prices grew slower than inflation, whereas they're up 30 per cent in real terms across the rest of NZ. 10/
November 11, 2025 at 8:31 PM
These changes may sound small, but the impacts build up quickly, as this great Inflection Points chart shows. Following major planning reforms in Auckland in 2016, house prices grew slower than inflation, whereas they're up 30 per cent in real terms across the rest of NZ. 10/
We model these development costs in detail in the report, as part of our analysis showing that recent NSW and Victorian planning reforms do create substantial ‘commercially feasible’ – i.e. profitable to build – housing capacity. 4/
November 11, 2025 at 8:31 PM
We model these development costs in detail in the report, as part of our analysis showing that recent NSW and Victorian planning reforms do create substantial ‘commercially feasible’ – i.e. profitable to build – housing capacity. 4/
Responding to our 'More homes, better cities' Grattan report, Professor Nicole Gurran wrote that our plan to boost housing supply needed a 'reality check' in part because 'building completions fall when prices stagnate'. Here's why that argument misses the mark. 🧵
November 11, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Responding to our 'More homes, better cities' Grattan report, Professor Nicole Gurran wrote that our plan to boost housing supply needed a 'reality check' in part because 'building completions fall when prices stagnate'. Here's why that argument misses the mark. 🧵
By helping to ease Australia's housing shortage, these reforms would also push down housing costs, as occurred in Auckland following reforms to their planning rules in 2016. 12/
November 5, 2025 at 8:02 PM
By helping to ease Australia's housing shortage, these reforms would also push down housing costs, as occurred in Auckland following reforms to their planning rules in 2016. 12/
Our recommended reforms would boost Australians incomes by increasing productivity, create better-functioning labour markets by allowing people to live and work where they want, and reduce car use and hence carbon emissions. 11/
November 5, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Our recommended reforms would boost Australians incomes by increasing productivity, create better-functioning labour markets by allowing people to live and work where they want, and reduce car use and hence carbon emissions. 11/
Thankfully, the politics of housing in our cities are changing. NSW and Victoria have introduced major reforms that we analyse in-depth in the report, and which I'll look to explore further in a future post. But clearly, there's still further to go. 9/
November 5, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Thankfully, the politics of housing in our cities are changing. NSW and Victoria have introduced major reforms that we analyse in-depth in the report, and which I'll look to explore further in a future post. But clearly, there's still further to go. 9/
Australian cities need to build more homes in the places people most want to live. That's why states should introduce reforms to permit 3-storey townhouses or flats on all residential land in capital cities, and at least 6 storeys near to transport hubs and commercial centres. 7/
November 5, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Australian cities need to build more homes in the places people most want to live. That's why states should introduce reforms to permit 3-storey townhouses or flats on all residential land in capital cities, and at least 6 storeys near to transport hubs and commercial centres. 7/
This is compounded by local heritage controls - such as heritage conservation areas in Sydney or heritage overlays in Melbourne - that apply to 21% of residential land within 10km of the CBD in Sydney and 29% in Melbourne. 6/
November 5, 2025 at 8:02 PM
This is compounded by local heritage controls - such as heritage conservation areas in Sydney or heritage overlays in Melbourne - that apply to 21% of residential land within 10km of the CBD in Sydney and 29% in Melbourne. 6/
And the problem is even more acute in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide where three quarters or more of residential land within 30km of the CBD is zoned for housing of two storeys or fewer. 5/
November 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
And the problem is even more acute in Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide where three quarters or more of residential land within 30km of the CBD is zoned for housing of two storeys or fewer. 5/
A key driver are urban planning controls that only allow higher-density housing on a small share of land in Australia's cities. About 80% of residential land within 30km of the CBD in Sydney, and 87% in Melbourne, is restricted to housing of 3 storeys or fewer. 4/
November 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
A key driver are urban planning controls that only allow higher-density housing on a small share of land in Australia's cities. About 80% of residential land within 30km of the CBD in Sydney, and 87% in Melbourne, is restricted to housing of 3 storeys or fewer. 4/
Unsurprisingly then, Australia's major cities are some of the least dense of their size in the world. If Melbourne was as dense as Los Angeles within the first 15km of the CBD, it would have an extra 430k homes. 3/
November 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
Unsurprisingly then, Australia's major cities are some of the least dense of their size in the world. If Melbourne was as dense as Los Angeles within the first 15km of the CBD, it would have an extra 430k homes. 3/
At the core of the issue is the lack of housing growth in Australia's major cities. While there's been rapid growth in greenfields suburbs on the urban fringe, and near to the CBD (particularly in Melbourne), growth has been much slower in the middle-ring suburbs in between. 2/
November 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
At the core of the issue is the lack of housing growth in Australia's major cities. While there's been rapid growth in greenfields suburbs on the urban fringe, and near to the CBD (particularly in Melbourne), growth has been much slower in the middle-ring suburbs in between. 2/
In the second half of the 20th century, Australia's housing stock grew much faster than the growth in the adult population. But in the 21st century, housing growth has declined, even as our population growth has held strong. 1/
November 5, 2025 at 8:01 PM
In the second half of the 20th century, Australia's housing stock grew much faster than the growth in the adult population. But in the 21st century, housing growth has declined, even as our population growth has held strong. 1/
In areas zoned for medium and high density, the amount of new housing that the policy allows was reduced from the original December 2023 draft, with inner areas now having a floor space ratio (FSR) control of 2.2:1 (see photo on left) rather than 3:1 (right). 4/
August 24, 2025 at 12:43 AM
In areas zoned for medium and high density, the amount of new housing that the policy allows was reduced from the original December 2023 draft, with inner areas now having a floor space ratio (FSR) control of 2.2:1 (see photo on left) rather than 3:1 (right). 4/
Most city land is zoned for low density, so this significantly limits the policy’s reach. For example, on the left are the low and mid rise areas near Manly Vale. The map on the right shows that most of this is zoned R1 (purple) or R2 (pink), and so is limited to 2 storeys. 3/
August 24, 2025 at 12:43 AM
Most city land is zoned for low density, so this significantly limits the policy’s reach. For example, on the left are the low and mid rise areas near Manly Vale. The map on the right shows that most of this is zoned R1 (purple) or R2 (pink), and so is limited to 2 storeys. 3/
But with planning rules, it’s never quite this simple. In fact, the policy only allows for 4-6 storey apartments in areas already zoned for medium or high-rise development. ‘Low density’ R2 or ‘General residential’ R1 zoned lots only allow for 2 storeys. 2/
August 24, 2025 at 12:42 AM
But with planning rules, it’s never quite this simple. In fact, the policy only allows for 4-6 storey apartments in areas already zoned for medium or high-rise development. ‘Low density’ R2 or ‘General residential’ R1 zoned lots only allow for 2 storeys. 2/
It’s notable to me that recent media reports on the low and mid rise housing policy in NSW struggle to explain the details of how it works, and miss the fact that it was scaled back from the policy originally proposed. A short 🧵
August 24, 2025 at 12:42 AM
It’s notable to me that recent media reports on the low and mid rise housing policy in NSW struggle to explain the details of how it works, and miss the fact that it was scaled back from the policy originally proposed. A short 🧵
It includes this great paper on vacancies caused by new housing supply Finland. While those moving into new market rate housing are mostly higher income, their movement creates a chain of vacancies that quickly flows to lower income households.
www.sciencedirect.co...
www.sciencedirect.co...
August 8, 2025 at 11:03 PM
It includes this great paper on vacancies caused by new housing supply Finland. While those moving into new market rate housing are mostly higher income, their movement creates a chain of vacancies that quickly flows to lower income households.
www.sciencedirect.co...
www.sciencedirect.co...
A great project here by Michael Weibe, who is writing accessible literature reviews on topics in housing research. The first article is all about vacancy chains.
open.substack.com/pu...
open.substack.com/pu...
August 8, 2025 at 11:03 PM
A great project here by Michael Weibe, who is writing accessible literature reviews on topics in housing research. The first article is all about vacancy chains.
open.substack.com/pu...
open.substack.com/pu...
Unfortunately, recent policy changes have made new townhouses much harder to build. In 2019, Seattle passed a mandatory affordable housing program that led to charges of around $30k applying to most new townhouses. Townhouse approvals in impacted areas decreased by 80%. 8/
July 23, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Unfortunately, recent policy changes have made new townhouses much harder to build. In 2019, Seattle passed a mandatory affordable housing program that led to charges of around $30k applying to most new townhouses. Townhouse approvals in impacted areas decreased by 80%. 8/
This upzoning was still limited in its scope however: while new townhouses were more affordable than the single family homes that would otherwise have been built, this did not dampen overall price *growth* in upzoned areas, compared to non-upzoned areas. 7/
July 23, 2025 at 10:41 PM
This upzoning was still limited in its scope however: while new townhouses were more affordable than the single family homes that would otherwise have been built, this did not dampen overall price *growth* in upzoned areas, compared to non-upzoned areas. 7/
As the authors show, this counteracted the natural tendency for suburbs that are zoned exclusively for detached homes to become less affordable over time as homes grow larger. Upzoned areas in Seattle saw much higher rates of purchases by middle-income and younger buyers. 6/
July 23, 2025 at 10:41 PM
As the authors show, this counteracted the natural tendency for suburbs that are zoned exclusively for detached homes to become less affordable over time as homes grow larger. Upzoned areas in Seattle saw much higher rates of purchases by middle-income and younger buyers. 6/
Property valuation data also shows that new homes in 4-unit or larger projects sold for the same or less than the homes they replaced. By comparison, knock down rebuilds in neighbouring areas led property prices to increase significantly. 5/
July 23, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Property valuation data also shows that new homes in 4-unit or larger projects sold for the same or less than the homes they replaced. By comparison, knock down rebuilds in neighbouring areas led property prices to increase significantly. 5/
The new zoning rules didn’t allow for particularly high levels of density, with floor area ratios set at between 1 and 1.4. But because low-rise townhouses were now enabled ‘by right’, this reform led to a steady flow of mid-density development following the 1994 reforms. 3/
July 23, 2025 at 10:40 PM
The new zoning rules didn’t allow for particularly high levels of density, with floor area ratios set at between 1 and 1.4. But because low-rise townhouses were now enabled ‘by right’, this reform led to a steady flow of mid-density development following the 1994 reforms. 3/
The paper sets out with a simple aim: documenting what happened when in 1994 Seattle rezoned a portion of land that previously only allowed detached single houses to enable more townhouses and walk up flats. 1/
July 23, 2025 at 10:40 PM
The paper sets out with a simple aim: documenting what happened when in 1994 Seattle rezoned a portion of land that previously only allowed detached single houses to enable more townhouses and walk up flats. 1/