Marcus Shepheard
@mashley.bsky.social
Formerly @instituteforgov.bsky.social and @thecccuk.bsky.social, currently @nestauk.bsky.social, estwhile evolutionary biologist.
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
"The intersection of policy and donuts" - @jillongovt.bsky.social
Pinned
Marcus Shepheard
@mashley.bsky.social
· Nov 14
Appreciate all the people who've followed me over the past week or so, welcome to Bluesky!
I've really benefitted from starter packs as this network grows. So I've made one of my own to help new arrivals find other interesting people. Please share, and let me know who's missing
go.bsky.app/Gq8LXLp
I've really benefitted from starter packs as this network grows. So I've made one of my own to help new arrivals find other interesting people. Please share, and let me know who's missing
go.bsky.app/Gq8LXLp
🫠
November 28, 2025 at 11:11 PM
🫠
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Bad news for anyone thinking of responding to the consultation on the new electric vehicle duty.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
November 26, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Bad news for anyone thinking of responding to the consultation on the new electric vehicle duty.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
The consultation opens today, and closes last March.
The method HMT is using to get an 'average bill saving' of £150 is pretty odd. Averaging the costs in this way really overlooks the differences in consumption. e.g the fact that over 4million British households don't have a gas bill...
November 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM
The method HMT is using to get an 'average bill saving' of £150 is pretty odd. Averaging the costs in this way really overlooks the differences in consumption. e.g the fact that over 4million British households don't have a gas bill...
I can't open the Budget's policy costings document in Chrome
November 26, 2025 at 1:52 PM
I can't open the Budget's policy costings document in Chrome
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
If the OBR document is correct, this seems to be the energy bills package:
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
November 26, 2025 at 12:23 PM
If the OBR document is correct, this seems to be the energy bills package:
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
Government taking 75% of the Renewables Obligation levy off electricity bills, at a cost of £2.3bn per year. This is good!
The ECO levy (£1.7bn per year to upgrade fuel poor homes) will *end in April 2026*.
ECO is gone
"This includes the exchequer temporarily part-funding the renewables obligation, the impact of the new supercharger uplift on household bills from April 2027, the expansion of the warm home discount, and the ending of the energy company obligation from April 2026."
"This includes the exchequer temporarily part-funding the renewables obligation, the impact of the new supercharger uplift on household bills from April 2027, the expansion of the warm home discount, and the ending of the energy company obligation from April 2026."
November 26, 2025 at 12:13 PM
ECO is gone
"This includes the exchequer temporarily part-funding the renewables obligation, the impact of the new supercharger uplift on household bills from April 2027, the expansion of the warm home discount, and the ending of the energy company obligation from April 2026."
"This includes the exchequer temporarily part-funding the renewables obligation, the impact of the new supercharger uplift on household bills from April 2027, the expansion of the warm home discount, and the ending of the energy company obligation from April 2026."
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Centrism is believing “public transport should be free” and “not ending this fuel duty cut” are both idiotic positions given the current state of well everything
When can you declare an emergency over?
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
The 5p “emergency” petrol tax cut was introduced in March 2022, to offset a spike in prices
They are now about 30p down on that month, & about 50p down on the absolute peak
November 25, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Centrism is believing “public transport should be free” and “not ending this fuel duty cut” are both idiotic positions given the current state of well everything
This really made me question my priors about what it's like to go to universal these days. It's so different from my experience 20+ years ago...
November 25, 2025 at 6:06 PM
This really made me question my priors about what it's like to go to universal these days. It's so different from my experience 20+ years ago...
We have updated our price cap explainer with the new numbers (and new charts, oooh) if you want to dig into the details a bit more.
www.nesta.org.uk/report/whats...
@nestauk.bsky.social
www.nesta.org.uk/report/whats...
@nestauk.bsky.social
November 21, 2025 at 5:44 PM
We have updated our price cap explainer with the new numbers (and new charts, oooh) if you want to dig into the details a bit more.
www.nesta.org.uk/report/whats...
@nestauk.bsky.social
www.nesta.org.uk/report/whats...
@nestauk.bsky.social
The new price cap for January is more-or-less flat for a typical household using a gas boiler (£2.55 more than now)
However, this snapshot elides the fact that electricity prices have jumped while gas prices fall.
A typical home with a storage heater is going to see their bills rise by over £100.
However, this snapshot elides the fact that electricity prices have jumped while gas prices fall.
A typical home with a storage heater is going to see their bills rise by over £100.
November 21, 2025 at 5:16 PM
The new price cap for January is more-or-less flat for a typical household using a gas boiler (£2.55 more than now)
However, this snapshot elides the fact that electricity prices have jumped while gas prices fall.
A typical home with a storage heater is going to see their bills rise by over £100.
However, this snapshot elides the fact that electricity prices have jumped while gas prices fall.
A typical home with a storage heater is going to see their bills rise by over £100.
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Delighted to publish this personal essay by me and John: Getting Britain out of the hole.
We wanted to write something quite readable that covers the big picture of the UK’s economic struggles. Hopefully we’ve managed at least one of those!
@johnspringford.bsky.social
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
We wanted to write something quite readable that covers the big picture of the UK’s economic struggles. Hopefully we’ve managed at least one of those!
@johnspringford.bsky.social
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
November 17, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Delighted to publish this personal essay by me and John: Getting Britain out of the hole.
We wanted to write something quite readable that covers the big picture of the UK’s economic struggles. Hopefully we’ve managed at least one of those!
@johnspringford.bsky.social
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
We wanted to write something quite readable that covers the big picture of the UK’s economic struggles. Hopefully we’ve managed at least one of those!
@johnspringford.bsky.social
getting-out-of-the-hole.uk
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Okay, I can't let this one go. I live in Ireland, not the UK, but the use of this image by a supposedly socialist party is so stupid and offensive, I'm going to get stuck in.
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
November 15, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Okay, I can't let this one go. I live in Ireland, not the UK, but the use of this image by a supposedly socialist party is so stupid and offensive, I'm going to get stuck in.
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
Let me explain to you why any experienced illustrator/designer could have stopped you making so many miserable mistakes. 1/
Building on the thread below, we've just published this which explains what the Energy Company is, what it does, what it's done well and (moreso) what has gone wrong with this scheme.
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
November 14, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Building on the thread below, we've just published this which explains what the Energy Company is, what it does, what it's done well and (moreso) what has gone wrong with this scheme.
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
www.nesta.org.uk/project-upda...
👀
The OBR have now confirmed that they've used the 10 working days before 21 October for their debt interest forecast. Here's my precise graphical depiction of what was happening to yields in that period. Suspect this is why the fiscal forecasts are reported to improved.
November 14, 2025 at 3:09 PM
👀
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
There's been a flurry of briefing about energy bills and potential cuts to schemes and/or the Warm Homes Plan .
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
November 14, 2025 at 11:57 AM
There's been a flurry of briefing about energy bills and potential cuts to schemes and/or the Warm Homes Plan .
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
The premise is to cut the Energy Company Obligation (reducing bills by ~£60), and then replacing the funding with money from the Warm Homes Plan.
It's hard to see how this works
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
The cost of living crisis was caused in large part by gas prices.
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Hundreds of thousands to lose heat pump subsidies in Reeves’s budget plan
Exclusive: Supporters say grants largely going to middle-class households, but experts warn move will slow transition from gas boilers
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 4:57 PM
The cost of living crisis was caused in large part by gas prices.
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Heat pump policy supports a solution which which gets the country off gas AND reduces emissions.
I seriously hope this is some crossed wires, if not we really are in trouble.
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
I think part of this story (on eligibility for heat pump grants) is likely to be nonsense - I'll explain in a thread below.
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
Hundreds of thousands to lose heat pump subsidies in Reeves’s budget plan
Exclusive: Supporters say grants largely going to middle-class households, but experts warn move will slow transition from gas boilers
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:03 PM
I think part of this story (on eligibility for heat pump grants) is likely to be nonsense - I'll explain in a thread below.
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
But it is clear that the Treasury wants to abolish the ECO levy, which funds upgrades for fuel poor homes. This would be a serious mistake
www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
🍼
November 13, 2025 at 10:46 PM
🍼
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
This video is brilliant: buff.ly/1zyTWmM
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Private jets don't pay fuel tax. Now I don't either.
You pay fuel duty. Why don’t billionaires? This week, we launched WeWingAnyCar.com to help you qualify for the same tax breaks that private jets get.
Because tax loopholes shouldn’t just be for…
www.youtube.com
November 8, 2025 at 9:34 AM
This video is brilliant: buff.ly/1zyTWmM
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Seems a total slam dunk that owners of private jets should pay fuel duties. Doesn't it?
The answer is annoying.
Thread:
Sharing because this is such a neat tool
I'm delighted to share our new Clean Heat Policy Tracker, an initiative led by @regassistproj.bsky.social via the Clean Heat Forum). www.raponline.org/toolkit/clea...
Clean Heat Policy Tracker
Table of Contents Acknowledgements The Clean Heat Policy Tracker 2025 was designed and authored by Duncan Gibb and Richard Lowes (Regulatory Assistance Project/Clean Heat Forum). Chiara Delmastro (Int...
www.raponline.org
November 5, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Sharing because this is such a neat tool
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
The Treasury is widely reported to be considering cutting energy bills, perhaps via a VAT cut. What's the best way to do this?
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
Tax-free electricity
A proposal to remove most taxes on electricity to reduce bills and promote clean heating
www.nesta.org.uk
November 5, 2025 at 1:09 PM
The Treasury is widely reported to be considering cutting energy bills, perhaps via a VAT cut. What's the best way to do this?
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
We think the answer is to remove the taxes from electricity bills. Here is Nesta's proposal out for Tax-free Electricity:
@nestauk.bsky.social
Two thoughts related to Dhara's good points
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
Rare for trade bodies to be this publicly furious. The Treasury could make some relatively modest savings by cutting energy efficiency schemes, but it would do a lot of long term damage.
www.businessgreen.com/news/4521385...
www.businessgreen.com/news/4521385...
November 5, 2025 at 12:40 PM
Two thoughts related to Dhara's good points
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
1) ECO is not a sacred cow. It has cost more and performed worse with each iteration and does not serve our poorest households well. It needs a complete redesign
2) Funding for poor households is non-negotiable. Any retrenchment would be a major failure
Reposted by Marcus Shepheard
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.
November 4, 2025 at 9:14 AM
Real fuel prices and fuel duty are historically low, and would remain so even after scheduled increases in Spring. Instead of fuel duty freezes, the Chancellor should focus cost of living support on bringing down electricity prices, which are definitely not historically low.