Marta Miori
@martamiori.bsky.social
PhD on support for Independence in Scotland @ the University of Manchester
Research officer @ Nuffield College
Voting, public opinion, longitudinal methods, nice graphs
Research officer @ Nuffield College
Voting, public opinion, longitudinal methods, nice graphs
Pinned
Reposted by Marta Miori
"If the government is to have any hope of getting itself back into the driver’s seat of our political moment, of getting its future back, it must start arguing in terms of a bold and coherent vision for the future."
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
This Labour government lacks a future
You might be forgiven for thinking that the Labour government is focused on the future. Since before his government’s first Budget, the Prime Minister has repeatedly asked the British public to stomac...
renewal.org.uk
November 28, 2025 at 3:40 PM
"If the government is to have any hope of getting itself back into the driver’s seat of our political moment, of getting its future back, it must start arguing in terms of a bold and coherent vision for the future."
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
@mbarnfield.bsky.social on the budget and the government's empty long-termism
Reposted by Marta Miori
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
How Politicians (mis)Perceive Policy Salience
eur01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
November 19, 2025 at 10:01 AM
Several recent studies have found that politicians aren't very good at estimating public support for policies. But we have little idea about whether politicians are good at knowing which issues are more important to voters. Our new publication has a first go at answering this question rdcu.be/eQGm4
Reposted by Marta Miori
NEW -
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB
- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB
- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
November 9, 2025 at 4:30 PM
NEW -
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB
- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Political Scandals and Vertical Contagion in Multilevel Systems - cup.org/47wHeJB
- @jaclarner.bsky.social, Robert Johns, @ailsahenderson.bsky.social, @frasmcm.bsky.social & @cjcarman.bsky.social
#OpenAccess
Reposted by Marta Miori
How can we compare the size and structuring power of different cleavages over time? Check out @jacobgunderson.bsky.social 's great paper and dataset for scholars working on cleavages at the party system level!
The latest from @dpzollinger.bsky.social and I's Special Issue in @wepsocial.bsky.social.
The latest from @dpzollinger.bsky.social and I's Special Issue in @wepsocial.bsky.social.
💥OUT NOW!
"Cleavage size and stability in turbulent times: introducing the bloc volatility and fragmentation dataset" by @jacobgunderson.bsky.social
Part of SI "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies", edited by @dpzollinger.bsky.social & @davidattewell6.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
"Cleavage size and stability in turbulent times: introducing the bloc volatility and fragmentation dataset" by @jacobgunderson.bsky.social
Part of SI "Cleavage Politics in Western Democracies", edited by @dpzollinger.bsky.social & @davidattewell6.bsky.social
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
October 27, 2025 at 12:51 PM
How can we compare the size and structuring power of different cleavages over time? Check out @jacobgunderson.bsky.social 's great paper and dataset for scholars working on cleavages at the party system level!
The latest from @dpzollinger.bsky.social and I's Special Issue in @wepsocial.bsky.social.
The latest from @dpzollinger.bsky.social and I's Special Issue in @wepsocial.bsky.social.
Reposted by Marta Miori
This is a great study and makes the govt's focus on Reform all the more questionable. TLDR: Basically Reform are beating Labour not by taking Labour voters but by Labour losing Labour voters and Reform taking Tory voters and non-voters www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
Can Labour Take Reform UK's Voters? Why Labour's Electoral Challenges Are Being Misunderstood - Nuffield College Oxford University
www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
October 27, 2025 at 10:01 AM
This is a great study and makes the govt's focus on Reform all the more questionable. TLDR: Basically Reform are beating Labour not by taking Labour voters but by Labour losing Labour voters and Reform taking Tory voters and non-voters www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
And a context where the "tactical option" on the left was much clearer. Today, if other parties on the left appear as a viable option to defeat *both* Reform and the Labour incumbent in the constituency, this could offer voters a double strategic reason to rally behind them. Tactical voting squared
For the 2024 election, @martamiori.bsky.social and I showed that the left bloc was much more coordinated. This led to extremely efficient votes-seats ratios for Labour and the Liberal Democrats (something that has had far too little attention). But that was in the context of an anti-Tory mood....
Caerphilly shows Nigel Farage’s Achilles heel – tactical voting could lock Reform out of power. www.newstatesman.com/politics/202...
October 24, 2025 at 11:45 AM
And a context where the "tactical option" on the left was much clearer. Today, if other parties on the left appear as a viable option to defeat *both* Reform and the Labour incumbent in the constituency, this could offer voters a double strategic reason to rally behind them. Tactical voting squared
Reposted by Marta Miori
This is important to remember in terms of upcoming by-elections. Even in Reform-facing seats, Labour's losses to progressive parties are now much more electorally costly than losses to Reform. In the May locals, this was additionally compounded by lower turnout among Labour's now don't knows.
Even in Labour vs Reform contests, where the nature of swing means Labour to Reform defections count double, the electoral strength/cost of losses to LDs and Grns is now ~66% higher than that of losses to Reform.
October 21, 2025 at 12:53 PM
This is important to remember in terms of upcoming by-elections. Even in Reform-facing seats, Labour's losses to progressive parties are now much more electorally costly than losses to Reform. In the May locals, this was additionally compounded by lower turnout among Labour's now don't knows.
Reposted by Marta Miori
Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by @mbarnfield.bsky.social showing Labour is losing the jam today voters.
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
October 20, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Latest from our politics of impatience project - some excellent analysis by @mbarnfield.bsky.social showing Labour is losing the jam today voters.
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
Labour sheds support from impatient Britons: on.ft.com/48EaX4h
Reposted by Marta Miori
From the cross tabs - these figures are equally newsworthy but I think a much better reflection of vote intention
Don't know 34%
Conservative 10%
Labour 9%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Reform UK 22%
Green Party 9%
Scottish National Party (SNP) 2%
Plaid Cymru 1%
Other 5%
Don't know 34%
Conservative 10%
Labour 9%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Reform UK 22%
Green Party 9%
Scottish National Party (SNP) 2%
Plaid Cymru 1%
Other 5%
📊 Ref lead of 15pts
‼️ Labour and Greens tied
Westminster voting intention
REF: 32% (-)
CON: 17% (-)
GRN: 15% (-)
LAB: 15% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (-)
via @FindoutnowUK, 45945
Chgs. w/ 08 Oct
britainelects.com
‼️ Labour and Greens tied
Westminster voting intention
REF: 32% (-)
CON: 17% (-)
GRN: 15% (-)
LAB: 15% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (-)
via @FindoutnowUK, 45945
Chgs. w/ 08 Oct
britainelects.com
Britain Elects | Substack
Cutting through the noise with Ben Walker. Click to read Britain Elects, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.
britainelects.com
October 16, 2025 at 12:13 PM
From the cross tabs - these figures are equally newsworthy but I think a much better reflection of vote intention
Don't know 34%
Conservative 10%
Labour 9%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Reform UK 22%
Green Party 9%
Scottish National Party (SNP) 2%
Plaid Cymru 1%
Other 5%
Don't know 34%
Conservative 10%
Labour 9%
Liberal Democrats 7%
Reform UK 22%
Green Party 9%
Scottish National Party (SNP) 2%
Plaid Cymru 1%
Other 5%
Great read from James!
Seems simple, but imo the antidote to the ecological fallacy is to just always think of constituency-level party fortunes as the result of changing vote shares (=winning party increasing their vote) *and* changing levels of fragmentation (=losing party losing votes elsewhere)
Seems simple, but imo the antidote to the ecological fallacy is to just always think of constituency-level party fortunes as the result of changing vote shares (=winning party increasing their vote) *and* changing levels of fragmentation (=losing party losing votes elsewhere)
1. Ecological Fallacy: just because a constituency goes from one party to another doesn't mean many individual voters made same journey
2. Availability Bias: just because you can easily picture the stereotype of a particular voter doesn't mean that they are numerous in electorate
2. Availability Bias: just because you can easily picture the stereotype of a particular voter doesn't mean that they are numerous in electorate
The Two Psychological Biases to Avoid to Understand Voting Behaviour in 2025
The ecological fallacy and availability bias
jamesbreckwoldt.substack.com
October 14, 2025 at 12:09 PM
Great read from James!
Seems simple, but imo the antidote to the ecological fallacy is to just always think of constituency-level party fortunes as the result of changing vote shares (=winning party increasing their vote) *and* changing levels of fragmentation (=losing party losing votes elsewhere)
Seems simple, but imo the antidote to the ecological fallacy is to just always think of constituency-level party fortunes as the result of changing vote shares (=winning party increasing their vote) *and* changing levels of fragmentation (=losing party losing votes elsewhere)
Reposted by Marta Miori
An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The unfulfilled promises of upward mobility and support for radical left parties in Western Europe
In recent decades, educational expansion has produced a large swathe of university graduates which labour markets are increasingly less able to absorb…
www.sciencedirect.com
October 2, 2025 at 9:52 AM
An important new paper from my talented, but BlueSky-less PHD Jose Lopes
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
September 29, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Reposted by Marta Miori
Absolute must-read from @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social. It's hard to imagine how Labour could be getting it more wrong - not least by talking up the replacement of the Conservatives by Reform, which will only accelerate the cannibalisation of the former's vote by the latter!
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
September 29, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Absolute must-read from @profjanegreen.bsky.social and @martamiori.bsky.social. It's hard to imagine how Labour could be getting it more wrong - not least by talking up the replacement of the Conservatives by Reform, which will only accelerate the cannibalisation of the former's vote by the latter!
Reposted by Marta Miori
Come for the argument, stay for the nice data viz! 🤓
September 28, 2025 at 12:44 PM
Come for the argument, stay for the nice data viz! 🤓
New 📊 with @profjanegreen.bsky.social on why Labour's electoral challenges are being misunderstood ⚠️
1) We show that Labour are losing few voters to Reform *even in their most pro-Leave seats*, and explain why
2) Instead, Reform risk overtaking Labour in ++ seats by taking '24 Cons and non-voters
1) We show that Labour are losing few voters to Reform *even in their most pro-Leave seats*, and explain why
2) Instead, Reform risk overtaking Labour in ++ seats by taking '24 Cons and non-voters
NEW!
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
In Liverpool for Labour Conference...
Starmer is concentrating on Reform but Labour shouldn't mistake their threat on the right, even in Leave voting heartlands.
Our new analysis w/ @martamiori.bsky.social explains:
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...
Article - Nuffield Politics Research Centre
politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk
September 28, 2025 at 11:45 AM
New 📊 with @profjanegreen.bsky.social on why Labour's electoral challenges are being misunderstood ⚠️
1) We show that Labour are losing few voters to Reform *even in their most pro-Leave seats*, and explain why
2) Instead, Reform risk overtaking Labour in ++ seats by taking '24 Cons and non-voters
1) We show that Labour are losing few voters to Reform *even in their most pro-Leave seats*, and explain why
2) Instead, Reform risk overtaking Labour in ++ seats by taking '24 Cons and non-voters
Reposted by Marta Miori
Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.
PESTON LIVE - 22/09/2025 👇
Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show
Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by:
💼 James Murray MP
🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk
🌏 Aaron David Miller
🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social
➡️ Maria Caulfield
#Peston
youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...
Join ITV’s Flagship Politics show
Tonight Robert Peston and Pippa Crerar will be joined by:
💼 James Murray MP
🔶 @eddavey.libdems.org.uk
🌏 Aaron David Miller
🌹 @bellribeiroaddy.bsky.social
➡️ Maria Caulfield
#Peston
youtube.com/live/P-ku4ly...
Recognition of Palestine | UK’s economic outlook | Reform’s latest immigration policy | ITV Peston
YouTube video by Peston
youtube.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:18 PM
Featuring @britishelectionstudy.com data. And analysis by @martamiori.bsky.social, @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social and data story supported by me.
Reposted by Marta Miori
You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
academic.oup.com
September 12, 2025 at 2:39 PM
You can read our paper here: academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
You can read Marta and Jane's paper here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
You can read the working paper on the Islands of Strangers speech here: osf.io/preprints/so...
Reposted by Marta Miori
BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment.
Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
The new battle for Britain
Once elections were fought between left and right. Now the main fight is within these camps
www.economist.com
September 12, 2025 at 2:39 PM
BES Research Fellow @jamesdgriffiths.bsky.social has spoken with The Economist about our Parliamentary Affairs paper on how British voters are volatile, but their choices are now structured by party blocs after the Brexit realignment.
Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Read here: www.economist.com/britain/2025...
Reposted by Marta Miori
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
July 14, 2025 at 1:13 PM
📣 NEW PAPER ALERT! 🚨
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
"School subject choices in adolescence affect political party support"
Just published in @wepsocial.bsky.social with @nspmartin.bsky.social and @rolandkappe.bsky.social.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
🧵👇
Reposted by Marta Miori
Mine and @profsob.bsky.social paper
Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK?
has been published. Please read it here,
url: academic.oup.com/pa/article/d...
Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK?
has been published. Please read it here,
url: academic.oup.com/pa/article/d...
Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK?
Abstract. Electoral registration in the UK is often critiqued for making it hard for voters to participate in elections. However, without a tool for a syst
academic.oup.com
July 3, 2025 at 3:09 PM
Mine and @profsob.bsky.social paper
Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK?
has been published. Please read it here,
url: academic.oup.com/pa/article/d...
Comparing registration systems using the International Difficulty of Registration Index (IDORI). How difficult is electoral registration in the UK?
has been published. Please read it here,
url: academic.oup.com/pa/article/d...
Reposted by Marta Miori
Opponents of the radical right often use - I'd argue, with some success - the argument that their opponents are a threat to democracy. But this argument is largely absent in Britain. Farage is a racist, he is incompetent, he's pro-Russia, but he's almost never portrayed as anti-democratic. (1)
May 27, 2025 at 2:17 PM
Opponents of the radical right often use - I'd argue, with some success - the argument that their opponents are a threat to democracy. But this argument is largely absent in Britain. Farage is a racist, he is incompetent, he's pro-Russia, but he's almost never portrayed as anti-democratic. (1)
Reposted by Marta Miori
For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
Our postdoc @eoghanly.bsky.social has co-developed
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
@devolvedelections.bsky.social, a seat projection tool for devolved elections 🤓🧮
You can select from some preset scenarios or plug in your own vote share numbers to generate precise estimates.
More info ⬇️
scottishelections.ac.uk/2025/05/22/a...
May 22, 2025 at 9:39 AM
For the first time all devolved national elections in the UK will use different electoral systems
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
Cool site below by @eoghanly.bsky.social allows you to see how they all work turning votes into seats 👇
The "a) Labour can lose votes in safe seats, and b) people will vote tactically in marginals" argument largely applies to a pre-2024 distribution of Labour votes. Both have, to a large extent, already happened - especially b). The party's majority now rests on that tactical coalition *holding up*
Excellent myth-busting by Luke Akehurst for Labour List labourlist.org/2025/05/labo...
May 21, 2025 at 11:53 AM
The "a) Labour can lose votes in safe seats, and b) people will vote tactically in marginals" argument largely applies to a pre-2024 distribution of Labour votes. Both have, to a large extent, already happened - especially b). The party's majority now rests on that tactical coalition *holding up*
Reposted by Marta Miori
Did you know about the hidden way that parties in the UK receive political donations? @politicalquarterly.bsky.social have just published @markpackuk.bsky.social & mine's research into donations made directly to candidates at election time. Details of these donors are not publicly published....
May 19, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Did you know about the hidden way that parties in the UK receive political donations? @politicalquarterly.bsky.social have just published @markpackuk.bsky.social & mine's research into donations made directly to candidates at election time. Details of these donors are not publicly published....
This is so important!! An essential read to understand current and future vote switching... with the implication that if switching tends to happen within blocs, then the fate of many seats depends on a) how fragmented/ unified the vote is within each bloc, and b) turnout by bloc
In short, 2024 was volatile, but Brexit preferences (and related demographics) still shape support – now for party blocs!
Blocs are important because voters may switch parties, but their choices are limited. This shapes who parties can attract or risk losing if they chase new voters…
Blocs are important because voters may switch parties, but their choices are limited. This shapes who parties can attract or risk losing if they chase new voters…
May 14, 2025 at 1:48 PM
This is so important!! An essential read to understand current and future vote switching... with the implication that if switching tends to happen within blocs, then the fate of many seats depends on a) how fragmented/ unified the vote is within each bloc, and b) turnout by bloc