Lightbucket
banner
lightbucket.bsky.social
Lightbucket
@lightbucket.bsky.social
20 years in academic physics, then 20 years running a physics-based tech company, now drifting towards semi-retirement.

Looking at:
decarbonisation; energy;
Russia's war in Ukraine.

Blog on Wordpress: https://lightbucket.wordpress.com/
But the previous government made clear it won't be speeded up:

 ❝ The German government does not intend to introduce a law to pull forward the country’s coal power phase-out from the officially agreed 2038 exit date to 2030 . "A legal provision is not planned," said economy minister Robert Habeck.❞
German government says no new law planned to ensure coal exit earlier than 2038
www.cleanenergywire.org
November 12, 2025 at 4:53 PM
2/2

But the longer term problem is that Germany's coal generation is falling far too slowly.

 • The 2038 phase out reneges on Germany's Paris commitment, which requires a 2030 phase out;

 • Germany's coal reduction is even slower than the US, over the period which includes the first Trump term.
November 12, 2025 at 3:11 PM
1/2

I've just taken a look at your data link,
it shows the exact opposite of what you say.

Germany's average hard coal generation is *up* in 2025:


Average hard coal generation:

2024: 2.71 GW
2025 YTD: 2.93 GW
November 12, 2025 at 3:11 PM
3/3

Germany is certainly not accelerating its coal phase out.
It is standing still. Germany won’t be closing any coal plants for a second year running.

Its 2038 coal phaseout target is so lax it can afford to do absolutely nothing for two years running.


Ref: www.luxtimes.lu/europeanunio...
November 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM
2/3

For 2000–2024, Germany has underperformed even the U.S. is reducing electricity generation from coal.

In 2000 both Germany and the U.S. had a 52% coal share,
but by 2024 U.S. coal share had fallen far faster than Germany's, despite the U.S. being actively pro-coal during the first Trump term.
November 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM
1/3

You mention two dates, "2030/2038":

2030 is the deadline by which EU countries need to be coal power free to align with the UN Paris Climate Agreement.

But Germany has chosen to renege on its Paris commitment, and has set 2038 as its coal phaseout year.
November 12, 2025 at 10:48 AM
2/2

Germany also has the highest share of EU coal power.
39% of the EU's coal generation is Germany's.

Germany hasn't replaced coal, Germany is the dominant coal generator in the EU, with the highest coal share of the top 6 European economies.


Ref: Ember 2025 ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
November 11, 2025 at 11:12 AM
1/2

Germany hasn't replaced coal.
In fact it has the highest coal share of the six largest European economies (20.9% coal in 2024).


Ref: Ember: ember-energy.org/data/electri...
November 11, 2025 at 11:12 AM
2/2

November 4, 2025:

 ❝ German LNG terminal operator Deutsche ReGas said that its FSRU-based LNG import facility in Mukran has achieved a new record high in monthly gas deliveries.❞

#Energiewende, 2025-style
Deutsche ReGas hits new Mukran LNG record
German LNG terminal operator Deutsche ReGas said that its FSRU-based LNG import facility in Mukran has achieved a new record high in monthly gas deliveries.
lngprime.com
November 10, 2025 at 4:17 PM
4/4

This scheme is for the existing French nuclear fleet only.

Six new EPR2 nuclear power plants are at various stages of starting construction (two each at Penly, Gravelines and Bugey),
and in June 2025 EDF was awarded a CfD for these at a strike price of:

€100/MWh (in 2024 prices).
👇
EDF And The French State Agree On €70 Billion Plan For EPR2 - Energynews.pro
EDF and the French state finalize a €70 billion agreement for six EPR2 reactors, including a specific territorial coordination framework in Gravelines.
energynews.pro
November 7, 2025 at 11:00 AM
3/4 #pricescrapbook entry for French nuclear.

The cost breakdown for 2026–2028 (in 2026 money) is:

TOTAL cost: €60.3/MWh

of which:
Return on capital (at 9.1% WACC): €13.8/MWh
Depreciation: €11.7/MWh
Fuel (incl. reprocessing and waste disposal): €8.1/MWh
Staff: €10.4/MWh
November 7, 2025 at 11:00 AM
2/4

That gives me an updated #pricescrapbook entry for French nuclear:

In 2026 money, the costs of French nuclear power are:

€60.3/MWh for 2026–2028;
€63.4/MWh for 2029–2031.


Ref: SFEN 👇
Decoding : What do the €60/MWh of existing nuclear power calculated by the CRE really represent?
sfen
sfeninenglish.org
November 7, 2025 at 11:00 AM
3/3

The adoption of wood pellet biomass for low carbon electricity was based on a scientific misunderstanding.

 ❝ Using wood pellets to generate low-carbon electricity is a flawed policy that is speeding up not slowing down climate warming.❞
Most wood energy schemes are a 'disaster' for climate change
A new report says that using wood pellets to generate low-carbon electricity is a highly flawed policy.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 5, 2025 at 11:56 AM
2/3

The CfD contract allows unrestricted merchant generation above the CfD generation cap:
November 5, 2025 at 11:56 AM
6/6

Of the six largest European economies, the two with the highest grid emissions are Russia and Germany, because of the very high fossil fuel share in their electricity mixes.

Germany has the highest share of coal-powered electricity generation, and Russia has the second highest.
November 2, 2025 at 11:54 AM
5/6

By way of comparison, here's the electricity mix and the carbon intensity of electricity generation of the six largest European economies in 2024, with the EU added for context.

France is the only one of the six largest European economies with sub-50g electricity emissions.
November 2, 2025 at 11:54 AM