Lawrence McKay
@lawrencemckay.bsky.social
Lecturer in Comparative Politics at the University of Reading - urban-rural divides, political trust, public opinion, UK/W Europe. Sometimes music/film/F1. Professional Simpsons reference overuser.
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
There is understandably a great deal of interest in fighting populism. I share the normative aspiration.
Yet the more I think about it, the more I find myself drawn to a more pessimistic interpretation. The latter may well be wrong. But articulating it helps clarify whether there are strong grounds
Yet the more I think about it, the more I find myself drawn to a more pessimistic interpretation. The latter may well be wrong. But articulating it helps clarify whether there are strong grounds
Very much looking forward to presenting this slide deck tomorrow at the Europe Workshop of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation!
I’ve tried to offer a balanced and accessible overview of the scholarly debates on the causes and consequences of right-wing populism, as well as the
I’ve tried to offer a balanced and accessible overview of the scholarly debates on the causes and consequences of right-wing populism, as well as the
November 27, 2025 at 1:21 PM
There is understandably a great deal of interest in fighting populism. I share the normative aspiration.
Yet the more I think about it, the more I find myself drawn to a more pessimistic interpretation. The latter may well be wrong. But articulating it helps clarify whether there are strong grounds
Yet the more I think about it, the more I find myself drawn to a more pessimistic interpretation. The latter may well be wrong. But articulating it helps clarify whether there are strong grounds
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
PM describes net migration of 205k as "a step in the right direction". His govt has no public position on a sustainable level of immigration is, nor any known process to decide what, why & how. Starmer is now implying he wants it significantly lower
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Net migration drop ‘step in the right direction’ – Starmer
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
www.standard.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
PM describes net migration of 205k as "a step in the right direction". His govt has no public position on a sustainable level of immigration is, nor any known process to decide what, why & how. Starmer is now implying he wants it significantly lower
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Net migration drop ‘step in the right direction’ – Starmer
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
www.standard.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 2:50 PM
No real policy motive from No 10 for bringing numbers down further, but is there a political one?
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Our @ukandeu.bsky.social-funded survey research on net migration says no - small benefit of getting numbers from peak to ~350k but none from further cuts
bsky.app/profile/robj...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Net migration fell sharply agaim to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, having been 344k in 2024 and 848k in 2023. But falling immigration has been the biggest secret - and it is time for the media and political debate to catch up with this change
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
UK net migration fell to 204,000 in year to June - live updates
Net migration, the difference between those entering and leaving the country, was 345,000 in 2024 according to revised figures.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Net migration fell sharply agaim to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, having been 344k in 2024 and 848k in 2023. But falling immigration has been the biggest secret - and it is time for the media and political debate to catch up with this change
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
November 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Really pleased to see a new commitment to place-based budgets today. Further progress towards the implementation of 'Total Place' principles as urged with @jesstud.bsky.social a couple of years ago. www.newlocal.org.uk/publications....
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Nothing but respect if Reeves says "shall we all just have the hour back if everyone's read it?"
November 26, 2025 at 12:20 PM
Nothing but respect if Reeves says "shall we all just have the hour back if everyone's read it?"
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 9:48 AM
New Publication with @lhaffert.bsky.social in @ejprjournal.bsky.social!
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
We study the role of generations in the urban-rural divide, which is increasingly shaping the politics of many democracies.
Studying Switzerland, we show: The urban-rural divide is stronger among younger generations. (1/10) 🧵👇
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
Legislators talk less about the future as they age | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja
doi.org
November 21, 2025 at 12:53 PM
NEW ARTICLE: @palesl.bsky.social, Vesa Koskimaa and I have an letter out in JOP, "Politicians talk less about the future as they age" doi.org/10.1086/739406 (1/10)
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
*Pops over to X* Has he? Has he been? YES! He's published an 1,835-word tweet rebuttal of a report he hasn't read!
November 20, 2025 at 4:29 PM
*Pops over to X* Has he? Has he been? YES! He's published an 1,835-word tweet rebuttal of a report he hasn't read!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
New publication!📢
@jvanslageren.bsky.social and I study political socialization during adolescence in urban and rural areas, using data from @adkspanel.bsky.social
Discussing politics with parents and peers is positively related to multiculturalist attitudes in cities, but not in rural places (1/3)
@jvanslageren.bsky.social and I study political socialization during adolescence in urban and rural areas, using data from @adkspanel.bsky.social
Discussing politics with parents and peers is positively related to multiculturalist attitudes in cities, but not in rural places (1/3)
November 17, 2025 at 8:08 AM
New publication!📢
@jvanslageren.bsky.social and I study political socialization during adolescence in urban and rural areas, using data from @adkspanel.bsky.social
Discussing politics with parents and peers is positively related to multiculturalist attitudes in cities, but not in rural places (1/3)
@jvanslageren.bsky.social and I study political socialization during adolescence in urban and rural areas, using data from @adkspanel.bsky.social
Discussing politics with parents and peers is positively related to multiculturalist attitudes in cities, but not in rural places (1/3)
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
🚨New piece forthcoming in @jeppjournal.bsky.social .
I tried to prove the ECB is politically responsive… and failed.
But the failure turned into the discovery. Read more:
Substack post: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Preprint: osf.io/gxrtc/files/...
I tried to prove the ECB is politically responsive… and failed.
But the failure turned into the discovery. Read more:
Substack post: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Preprint: osf.io/gxrtc/files/...
The Worlds "Most Independent" Central Bank... or Just Pretending?
How null results didn’t kill my project - they rewrote it. They revealed a new, measurable form of responsiveness inside the most secretive central bank in the world.
open.substack.com
November 20, 2025 at 7:48 AM
🚨New piece forthcoming in @jeppjournal.bsky.social .
I tried to prove the ECB is politically responsive… and failed.
But the failure turned into the discovery. Read more:
Substack post: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Preprint: osf.io/gxrtc/files/...
I tried to prove the ECB is politically responsive… and failed.
But the failure turned into the discovery. Read more:
Substack post: open.substack.com/pub/laurenle...
Preprint: osf.io/gxrtc/files/...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Second POAL methods brief by amazing @laurenleek.eu on how leading polling and survey providers deal with AI bots with tips for researchers fielding their own surveys too!
"Safeguarding data quality is no longer a single checkpoint but an end-to-end pipeline - one that reallocates substantial resources from sampling to continuous fraud monitoring"
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
www.poal.co.uk
November 18, 2025 at 9:26 AM
Second POAL methods brief by amazing @laurenleek.eu on how leading polling and survey providers deal with AI bots with tips for researchers fielding their own surveys too!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
I think the conventional wisdom that switching to PR, even explicitly to block Reform, would delegitimise the system is completely wrong. You would get buy-in from every other party, bar maybe the Tories, and it's historically the main reason electoral reform happens. www.jstor.org/stable/2585577
November 17, 2025 at 12:43 PM
I think the conventional wisdom that switching to PR, even explicitly to block Reform, would delegitimise the system is completely wrong. You would get buy-in from every other party, bar maybe the Tories, and it's historically the main reason electoral reform happens. www.jstor.org/stable/2585577
"If this is the stuff dreams are made of /
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
November 15, 2025 at 1:11 AM
"If this is the stuff dreams are made of /
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
No wonder I feel like I'm floating on air"
Incredible show from post-punk/goth legends The Chameleons @ Electric Ballroom
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Trying to recall the polling on all the tax/spend decisions in isolation of the Conservative led Government in 2010 and how they fared in 2015......
Do you think the government was right or wrong to decide not to raise income tax at the Budget?
Right: 58%
Wrong: 21%
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
Right: 58%
Wrong: 21%
yougov.co.uk/topics/polit...
November 14, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Trying to recall the polling on all the tax/spend decisions in isolation of the Conservative led Government in 2010 and how they fared in 2015......
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?
November 14, 2025 at 10:42 AM
A chart from "The British General Election of 2024" (out soon!) which is relevant to this debate - here's what voters wanted (black line) and what they though Labour (red) and Cons (blue) would do on tax and spend during the campaign. Higher figures = "put them up". Some important lessons here 1/?
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
trying to navigate the fine line between reading enough Epstein emails to be able to follow current affairs but not so many that my soul feels stained by cursed knowledge about the human experience until my dying days
November 13, 2025 at 9:52 PM
trying to navigate the fine line between reading enough Epstein emails to be able to follow current affairs but not so many that my soul feels stained by cursed knowledge about the human experience until my dying days
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
This is in the New Statesman today by Ailbhe Rea is well worth a read on the mood in the Parliamentary Labour Party
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Does Keir Starmer realise how much trouble he's in?
The Prime Minister is facing a crisis of contempt among his own MPs
www.newstatesman.com
November 12, 2025 at 9:31 AM
This is in the New Statesman today by Ailbhe Rea is well worth a read on the mood in the Parliamentary Labour Party
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
November 11, 2025 at 9:00 AM
🚨 NEW in @bjpols.bsky.social : When Partygate hit Westminster, trust in Scottish politicians increased. Our experiments reveal a "contrast effect" - scandals at one level can make the other look better by comparison. Who lost most trust in Westminster? Scottish unionists. Read now #OpenAccess 👇
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
canada-election.pages.dev This is my election map of Canada by polling district - interested what you think!
Canadian Election Results 2021-2025
Interactive map showing Canadian federal election results and vote swing analysis between 2021 and 2025
canada-election.pages.dev
November 10, 2025 at 6:24 PM
canada-election.pages.dev This is my election map of Canada by polling district - interested what you think!
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Public Opinion Analytics Lab
The website of the Public Opinion Analytics Lab
www.poal.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 8:47 AM
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
November 3, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Last Friday, new English Indices of Deprivation were released for the first time since 2019, measuring relative deprivation in 33,755 areas of England across multiple domains. How do these geographic disparities relate to voting patterns in the UK’s last General Election? A short thread 🧵
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Reposted by Lawrence McKay
Were officials right to give Hadush Kebatu, the asylum seeker convicted of sexual assault, £500 to speed up his deportation?
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%
October 30, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Were officials right to give Hadush Kebatu, the asylum seeker convicted of sexual assault, £500 to speed up his deportation?
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%
Preferable to give him £500 directly, ensuring quick deportation: 42%
Preferable not to give him cash, even deportation delayed and more expensive: 23%
Something else: 20%