Lara Putnam
@laraputnam.bsky.social
Historian. Mom. Knocks on doors and talks politics. https://www.history.pitt.edu/people/lara-putnam
No, not just an expected adjustment: from late 2022 onward, Dems were losing ground even in areas (SEPA esp, also SCPA, even Allegheny) that had been strong for them even amid regional realignment. But, this last month: areas that saw Dem growth in 2017-19 & 2022 grew once more👇
November 8, 2025 at 3:46 AM
No, not just an expected adjustment: from late 2022 onward, Dems were losing ground even in areas (SEPA esp, also SCPA, even Allegheny) that had been strong for them even amid regional realignment. But, this last month: areas that saw Dem growth in 2017-19 & 2022 grew once more👇
As a reminder, PA's implementation of AVR since Sept 2023 proactively asks everyone renewing their DL to reconfirm their party reg choice, which unsurprisingly has led to an increase in party-switching.
So kind of functions like a slow-rolling poll of 1/4 of much of the PA electorate yearly now?
So kind of functions like a slow-rolling poll of 1/4 of much of the PA electorate yearly now?
November 3, 2025 at 2:18 PM
As a reminder, PA's implementation of AVR since Sept 2023 proactively asks everyone renewing their DL to reconfirm their party reg choice, which unsurprisingly has led to an increase in party-switching.
So kind of functions like a slow-rolling poll of 1/4 of much of the PA electorate yearly now?
So kind of functions like a slow-rolling poll of 1/4 of much of the PA electorate yearly now?
In the 4 months between the announcement of the Dobbs decision & Nov 2022 election, Dems gained a net 9,500 voters. before that you have to go back to summer-fall 2019 to find a multi-month stretch that was net positive for Dems in PA
November 3, 2025 at 2:15 PM
In the 4 months between the announcement of the Dobbs decision & Nov 2022 election, Dems gained a net 9,500 voters. before that you have to go back to summer-fall 2019 to find a multi-month stretch that was net positive for Dems in PA
And by "in recent memory" I mean that Dems have not had a month with a 2,000 net gain over the GOP since the Dobbs-backlash summer of 2022 I believe?
November 3, 2025 at 2:09 PM
And by "in recent memory" I mean that Dems have not had a month with a 2,000 net gain over the GOP since the Dobbs-backlash summer of 2022 I believe?
Take this fwiw, but the last month of partisan voter registration shifts in Pennsylvania have looked better for Dems than any month in recent memory🤷♀️
November 3, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Take this fwiw, but the last month of partisan voter registration shifts in Pennsylvania have looked better for Dems than any month in recent memory🤷♀️
So this trend highlighted by @mikemadrid.bsky.social has really important implications for Pennsylvania. That is, if it continues, and if Democrats are able to make the case to PA's Latino communities that they can be trusted with things that matter (the economy, first & foremost).
August 6, 2025 at 12:52 PM
So this trend highlighted by @mikemadrid.bsky.social has really important implications for Pennsylvania. That is, if it continues, and if Democrats are able to make the case to PA's Latino communities that they can be trusted with things that matter (the economy, first & foremost).
(This map is a decade old, so add like about 5 percentage points to % Hispanic population in all counties along La Ruta 222. I should find you a more recent one!)
August 6, 2025 at 12:47 PM
(This map is a decade old, so add like about 5 percentage points to % Hispanic population in all counties along La Ruta 222. I should find you a more recent one!)
Meanwhile relative resilience of Harris totals in Lehigh Valley came despite major declines in Latino areas of Berks, Lancaster, Lehigh.
August 6, 2025 at 12:39 PM
Meanwhile relative resilience of Harris totals in Lehigh Valley came despite major declines in Latino areas of Berks, Lancaster, Lehigh.
Harris lost ground vs Biden pretty much everywhere in the US. So to me, how much of 2020 gains did Dems manage to hang onto in site of that is a useful thing to know, if you are trying to understand how much of PA's 2020 realignment is going to stick moving forward. Answer: in SEPA, most but not all
August 6, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Harris lost ground vs Biden pretty much everywhere in the US. So to me, how much of 2020 gains did Dems manage to hang onto in site of that is a useful thing to know, if you are trying to understand how much of PA's 2020 realignment is going to stick moving forward. Answer: in SEPA, most but not all
Why look at this? 2016 saw huge jump towards GOP in western PA, & rural PA in general. 2020 & 2024 continued upward for GOP, back to slower pace but fr that new elevated baseline. 2020 saw big jump for Dems in Allegheny & SEPA, plus some reclaiming of ground lost to GOP in NEPA, Lehigh Valley, SCPA
August 6, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Why look at this? 2016 saw huge jump towards GOP in western PA, & rural PA in general. 2020 & 2024 continued upward for GOP, back to slower pace but fr that new elevated baseline. 2020 saw big jump for Dems in Allegheny & SEPA, plus some reclaiming of ground lost to GOP in NEPA, Lehigh Valley, SCPA
Harris lost ground vs Biden pretty much everywhere in the US. So to me, how much of 2020 gains did Dems manage to hang onto in site of that is a useful thing to know, if you are trying to understand how much of PA's 2020 realignment is going to stick moving forward. Answer: in SEPA, most but not all
August 6, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Harris lost ground vs Biden pretty much everywhere in the US. So to me, how much of 2020 gains did Dems manage to hang onto in site of that is a useful thing to know, if you are trying to understand how much of PA's 2020 realignment is going to stick moving forward. Answer: in SEPA, most but not all
re why telling: 2016 saw huge jump towards GOP in western PA, plus rural PA in general. 2020 & 2024 continued upward for GOP, back to slower pace but fr that new elevated baseline. 2020 saw big jump for Dems in Allegheny & SEPA, plus some reclaiming of ground lost to GOP in NEPA, Lehigh Valley, SCPA
August 6, 2025 at 12:28 PM
re why telling: 2016 saw huge jump towards GOP in western PA, plus rural PA in general. 2020 & 2024 continued upward for GOP, back to slower pace but fr that new elevated baseline. 2020 saw big jump for Dems in Allegheny & SEPA, plus some reclaiming of ground lost to GOP in NEPA, Lehigh Valley, SCPA
Where did Kamala's net vote totals (D votes minus R votes) fall furthest from Hilary Clinton's numbers. Philly of course. The a bunch of medium or small western counties, onetime Dem strongholds, where 2016 already represented a huge Dem collapse. Turns out, still had lots more room to fall :/
August 6, 2025 at 11:13 AM
Where did Kamala's net vote totals (D votes minus R votes) fall furthest from Hilary Clinton's numbers. Philly of course. The a bunch of medium or small western counties, onetime Dem strongholds, where 2016 already represented a huge Dem collapse. Turns out, still had lots more room to fall :/
ok, another hint: it's related to this chart
August 4, 2025 at 12:52 PM
ok, another hint: it's related to this chart
so: clarifying :)
These are the only counties that share this characteristic. It's not voter reg. it's about election results. Specifically, *net* Dem votes—hence, related to both vote choice & turnout.
It shows change over time. & it's not trivial: it's genuinely important looking ahead, imho.
??
These are the only counties that share this characteristic. It's not voter reg. it's about election results. Specifically, *net* Dem votes—hence, related to both vote choice & turnout.
It shows change over time. & it's not trivial: it's genuinely important looking ahead, imho.
??
August 4, 2025 at 10:26 AM
so: clarifying :)
These are the only counties that share this characteristic. It's not voter reg. it's about election results. Specifically, *net* Dem votes—hence, related to both vote choice & turnout.
It shows change over time. & it's not trivial: it's genuinely important looking ahead, imho.
??
These are the only counties that share this characteristic. It's not voter reg. it's about election results. Specifically, *net* Dem votes—hence, related to both vote choice & turnout.
It shows change over time. & it's not trivial: it's genuinely important looking ahead, imho.
??
update: here's that list, fwiw. largely just reflects size of population, but Dauphin, York, and Lehigh did see higher rates of growth of Independent+Other registrants...
August 4, 2025 at 2:57 AM
update: here's that list, fwiw. largely just reflects size of population, but Dauphin, York, and Lehigh did see higher rates of growth of Independent+Other registrants...
I am now a single issue voter and my single issue is this👇 data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-mother...
August 3, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I am now a single issue voter and my single issue is this👇 data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-mother...
super interesting to me that in this poll at least, Independents turn out to be consistently more isolationist than *either* D or R on multiple Qs. Less likely to want to be Economic leader, more likely want Neutral actor, least likely want military watchdog, least likely global peacekeeper. Huh!
August 1, 2025 at 8:52 PM
super interesting to me that in this poll at least, Independents turn out to be consistently more isolationist than *either* D or R on multiple Qs. Less likely to want to be Economic leader, more likely want Neutral actor, least likely want military watchdog, least likely global peacekeeper. Huh!
Meanwhile in Allegheny County in Nov 2021, about 50,000 people cast votes at the top of the ballot but declined to vote on statewide judicial retentions
July 20, 2025 at 1:06 PM
Meanwhile in Allegheny County in Nov 2021, about 50,000 people cast votes at the top of the ballot but declined to vote on statewide judicial retentions
I participated in an event about the upcoming judicial races, & two nice people came up afterward & specifically asked me to post more on Bluesky 😅. I live to serve, so here is one quick PA judicial fun fact: In Nov 2021, 70,000 of the people who cast ballots in Philly DECLINED to vote on retentions
July 20, 2025 at 1:01 PM
I participated in an event about the upcoming judicial races, & two nice people came up afterward & specifically asked me to post more on Bluesky 😅. I live to serve, so here is one quick PA judicial fun fact: In Nov 2021, 70,000 of the people who cast ballots in Philly DECLINED to vote on retentions
Working on a new article about online harms to children & intl human rights w/@jenatmartin.bsky.social so I jumped over to Fb to see if there'd been improvement & immediately found these in a 17k public group I reported on months ago with @justinhendrix.bsky.social how's your dystopian morning going
June 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Working on a new article about online harms to children & intl human rights w/@jenatmartin.bsky.social so I jumped over to Fb to see if there'd been improvement & immediately found these in a 17k public group I reported on months ago with @justinhendrix.bsky.social how's your dystopian morning going
(for context, it's the place @msifry.bsky.social & I wrote about here, back in 2022) www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/o...
May 22, 2025 at 11:56 AM
(for context, it's the place @msifry.bsky.social & I wrote about here, back in 2022) www.nytimes.com/2022/08/01/o...
It's understandably not the SWPA election result getting headlines this week, but: the continued Democratic rise (and stark GOP decline) in Pittsburgh's once rock-ribbed Republican northern suburbs is remarkable
May 22, 2025 at 11:54 AM
It's understandably not the SWPA election result getting headlines this week, but: the continued Democratic rise (and stark GOP decline) in Pittsburgh's once rock-ribbed Republican northern suburbs is remarkable
In 2021 Ed Gainey benefitted from very high turnout *&* high vote share in Pittsburgh's whitest precincts. In 2021 Bill Peduto won 2,500 fewer votes in 90+% white precincts than he had in 2017, while Gainey won *9,000* more votes there than challenger-from-the-Left Reverend John Welch had in 2017
May 20, 2025 at 12:40 AM
In 2021 Ed Gainey benefitted from very high turnout *&* high vote share in Pittsburgh's whitest precincts. In 2021 Bill Peduto won 2,500 fewer votes in 90+% white precincts than he had in 2017, while Gainey won *9,000* more votes there than challenger-from-the-Left Reverend John Welch had in 2017
There are more Black people who live in non-city Allegheny County precincts that are 90+% white, than there are Black people who live in City of Pittsburgh precincts that are 90+% Black
May 20, 2025 at 12:36 AM
There are more Black people who live in non-city Allegheny County precincts that are 90+% white, than there are Black people who live in City of Pittsburgh precincts that are 90+% Black