Kieran Lucia
@kieranlucia.bsky.social
Director at Incisive Health. All things health policy and UK politics
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Funny to think a year ago, most Tory MPs thought Starmer had a clever but cynical plan to bank the changes Sunak made on immigration and declare victory, rather than to keep holing himself under the waterline.
PM describes net migration of 205k as "a step in the right direction". His govt has no public position on a sustainable level of immigration is, nor any known process to decide what, why & how. Starmer is now implying he wants it significantly lower
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Net migration drop ‘step in the right direction’ – Starmer
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
www.standard.co.uk
November 27, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Funny to think a year ago, most Tory MPs thought Starmer had a clever but cynical plan to bank the changes Sunak made on immigration and declare victory, rather than to keep holing himself under the waterline.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
November 27, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Headline on The World at One just now:
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
"Sir Keir Starmer has denied putting the Labour Party before the country by ending the two-child benefit cap".
Can we please go back to reporting the actual news, not someone's partisan take on it?
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
November 27, 2025 at 10:02 AM
Feels like the most important Budget chart from a market point of view. Same game being played again.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Doing a U-turn on a tax the market both wanted and expected on the day of the budget itself would have been absolute smackhead behaviour. From great piece by @pronouncedalva.bsky.social www.newstatesman.com/cover-story/...
November 25, 2025 at 6:16 PM
Doing a U-turn on a tax the market both wanted and expected on the day of the budget itself would have been absolute smackhead behaviour. From great piece by @pronouncedalva.bsky.social www.newstatesman.com/cover-story/...
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
A ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth over £2m to raise about £400/450m a year is everything wrong with a ‘smorgasbord’ approach.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Homes worth more than £2mn set to be hit by Budget raid on.ft.com/4rocFhe
Homes worth more than £2mn set to be hit by Budget raid
‘Mansion tax’ set to affect more than 100,000 properties, mostly in London and the south-east
on.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 6:03 PM
A ‘mansion tax’ on homes worth over £2m to raise about £400/450m a year is everything wrong with a ‘smorgasbord’ approach.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Lots of potential political pain for a public finances rounding error. Coupled with a new weird cliffedges.
Either reform property tax to raise proper money or don’t.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
Trump says he’s meeting with “communist” Mamdani at the White House on Friday
November 20, 2025 at 1:55 AM
Trump in a room with a very charismatic person results in like half a day of Trump agreeing with everything that person said, so this has the potential to be very, very funny.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reeves in Zugzwang
Incremental politics no longer works
open.substack.com
November 16, 2025 at 12:19 PM
Reeves should risk it all on one last roll of the dice.
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Raise income tax, break the triple lock, slay the deficit, spend the money on the things she believes in.
It may not work - but better than waiting for doom to overtake her.
open.substack.com/pub/edrith/p...
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Here's an extraordinarily cynical take: did the government talk up the likelihood of a manifesto-breaking income tax rise in the knowledge that it would push down gilt yields in the window the OBR will use for its forecasts? Rowing back now pushes up yields but too late to enter the forecast on 26th
And there we go 10y opened up 11 basis points erasing 1/3 of the rally since October.
39 minutes until the bond markets make reeves reconsider I reckon.
November 14, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Here's an extraordinarily cynical take: did the government talk up the likelihood of a manifesto-breaking income tax rise in the knowledge that it would push down gilt yields in the window the OBR will use for its forecasts? Rowing back now pushes up yields but too late to enter the forecast on 26th
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Yes, I think this is what the “it’s smart not to do income tax” stuff is missing. If you remove salary sacrifice on someone’s pension contributions you are increasing their income tax! If you freeze thresholds you are increasing their income tax!
Issue for Labour now isn't whether they break their manifesto pledge on tax. It is whether they do so in a way which is blatant, honest but sustainable - or whether they do so by a myriad of complex and likely insufficient means whilst arguing they are not.
Imho, one seems more toxic than the other
Imho, one seems more toxic than the other
November 14, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Yes, I think this is what the “it’s smart not to do income tax” stuff is missing. If you remove salary sacrifice on someone’s pension contributions you are increasing their income tax! If you freeze thresholds you are increasing their income tax!
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
I am obliged to report that when the No 10 spokesman gave this part of the statement there was a brief but heartfelt outbreak of laughter from journalists, one of whom later asked if the PM might thus be interested in a bridge he had to sell.
November 13, 2025 at 12:35 PM
I am obliged to report that when the No 10 spokesman gave this part of the statement there was a brief but heartfelt outbreak of laughter from journalists, one of whom later asked if the PM might thus be interested in a bridge he had to sell.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
November 10, 2025 at 1:08 PM
The fact that the BBC has made serious culpable errors does not negate the point that there is a real and concerted right-wing media campaign to destroy it. Both points can be true at the same time and the campaign would not end even if the errors did.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Robbie Gibb once suggested that reporters should reflect if they were getting more retweets from one side than the other - a braindead analysis that ignores that fair and impartial reporting of education might get more Tory retweets than say, criminal justice.
Stephen really does have the best take on this. It’s not clear that the BBC Board or indeed the rest of the News team really understood the message of the previous reviews, which were about getting detail right. Instead they wanted to know what was ‘biased’ or not like they were blotting out stains.
The impossible dream some people on the British right are chasing is that you can have a BBC News operation that retreats from detail and expertise, that takes dictation from the government, but this will only create incompetence and failure when it suits you:
November 10, 2025 at 10:39 AM
Robbie Gibb once suggested that reporters should reflect if they were getting more retweets from one side than the other - a braindead analysis that ignores that fair and impartial reporting of education might get more Tory retweets than say, criminal justice.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
HOW HAVE I NOT WATCHED THIS SHOW BEFORE
November 7, 2025 at 2:10 PM
HOW HAVE I NOT WATCHED THIS SHOW BEFORE
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Debs. Nehru. Dhoom Machale. I’m in danger of believing good things might be possible again
November 5, 2025 at 4:54 AM
Debs. Nehru. Dhoom Machale. I’m in danger of believing good things might be possible again
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Badenoch says hacking into Harriet Harman's website 17 years ago 'not the same' as Reeves breaking law
Badenoch says hacking into Harriet Harman's website 17 years ago 'not the same' as Reeves breaking law
Kemi Badenoch has said hacking into Harriet Harman's website when she was younger is "not the same" as Rachel Reeves failing to get a £900 rental licence for her home.
news.sky.com
October 30, 2025 at 1:13 PM
Badenoch says hacking into Harriet Harman's website 17 years ago 'not the same' as Reeves breaking law
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
This such a perfect patriotic 🇬🇧 Fleet Street cock-up. It's one thing for a news outlet to be duped by a competent hoaxer. Excruciating, yes, but there's a fairly long history of such fuck ups. But to put out a statement SAYING you'd been hoaxed but you'd actually just emailed the wrong guy?
October 30, 2025 at 6:34 AM
This such a perfect patriotic 🇬🇧 Fleet Street cock-up. It's one thing for a news outlet to be duped by a competent hoaxer. Excruciating, yes, but there's a fairly long history of such fuck ups. But to put out a statement SAYING you'd been hoaxed but you'd actually just emailed the wrong guy?
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Genuinely think IMF WEO titles are the best six monthly snapshot of elite economic vibes.
Translating this as ‘quite confusing but feels bad’.
Translating this as ‘quite confusing but feels bad’.
October 14, 2025 at 1:03 PM
Genuinely think IMF WEO titles are the best six monthly snapshot of elite economic vibes.
Translating this as ‘quite confusing but feels bad’.
Translating this as ‘quite confusing but feels bad’.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
It just straightforwardly *insane* how much political chatter in the United Kingdom is about the next general election, an event that is a long way in the future, and how basically none of it is about 'uh, this policy agenda doesn't look adequate to the scale of the inherited problem'.
September 22, 2025 at 1:58 PM
It just straightforwardly *insane* how much political chatter in the United Kingdom is about the next general election, an event that is a long way in the future, and how basically none of it is about 'uh, this policy agenda doesn't look adequate to the scale of the inherited problem'.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
This Onion story is a little too on the nose.
A group called 'Our Party' is trying to take over 'Your Party'
A group called ‘Our Party’ is trying to take over ‘Your Party’
They've called for Corbyn and Sultana to 'hand the reins over to the grassroots membership'
leftfootforward.org
September 19, 2025 at 4:01 PM
This Onion story is a little too on the nose.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
After my article on the rise in negative news yesterday, nice to see a good news story!: "the delivery of one of the largest UK infrastructure projects roughly on time and close to budget"
on.ft.com/41OFYOS
on.ft.com/41OFYOS
‘Super sewer’ chief bows out to the sweet smell of success
London’s £5bn Thames Tideway project has been completed without drama using a pioneering financial model
on.ft.com
September 10, 2025 at 8:59 AM
After my article on the rise in negative news yesterday, nice to see a good news story!: "the delivery of one of the largest UK infrastructure projects roughly on time and close to budget"
on.ft.com/41OFYOS
on.ft.com/41OFYOS
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Year by year, Act by Act, the UK has long been slowly, steadily creating an evermore Illiberal security state.
And politicians and the media have just nodded it through.
Party politics and the press have made little if no difference.
And politicians and the media have just nodded it through.
Party politics and the press have made little if no difference.
And the entire UK political establishment is complicit. The Lib Dems who endorsed the Immigration Act 2014 whilst in coalition. Corbyn’s Labour, who waved through the Investigatory Powers Act when in opposition. *Everyone* who passed the Online Safety Act.
August 30, 2025 at 6:53 AM
Year by year, Act by Act, the UK has long been slowly, steadily creating an evermore Illiberal security state.
And politicians and the media have just nodded it through.
Party politics and the press have made little if no difference.
And politicians and the media have just nodded it through.
Party politics and the press have made little if no difference.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
Bears repeating that Lowe's position on remigration is to the right of the BNP in the 2000s. And the Telegraph is giving him softball interviews.
Just The Telegraph seeing how far they can push the conversation to the right.
August 30, 2025 at 7:34 AM
Bears repeating that Lowe's position on remigration is to the right of the BNP in the 2000s. And the Telegraph is giving him softball interviews.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
It’s a pretty common newsroom practice to say that protests of a few hundred (or even a few thousand) people aren’t headline news because they happen all the time. And it’s largely true.
What I can’t explain is why even Ofcom regulated TV is determined to make *these* protests news.
What I can’t explain is why even Ofcom regulated TV is determined to make *these* protests news.
Sunday protests seem to be < 500 nationwide, maybe < 300, across 4-6 locations
Yet ITV news using language of "erupt nationwide" (!)
Epping: 100-150
London: 20
Birmingham: 30
Stevenage: 30-50
Norwich: ? anything of any scale
Manchester: ? anything of any scale
Dudley: ? anything of any scale?
Yet ITV news using language of "erupt nationwide" (!)
Epping: 100-150
London: 20
Birmingham: 30
Stevenage: 30-50
Norwich: ? anything of any scale
Manchester: ? anything of any scale
Dudley: ? anything of any scale?
August 24, 2025 at 10:16 PM
It’s a pretty common newsroom practice to say that protests of a few hundred (or even a few thousand) people aren’t headline news because they happen all the time. And it’s largely true.
What I can’t explain is why even Ofcom regulated TV is determined to make *these* protests news.
What I can’t explain is why even Ofcom regulated TV is determined to make *these* protests news.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
I’d bet decent money that there is less political risk in putting 2 percentage points on VAT (despite the manifesto pledge) than in a large reform of property tax.
The main thing I'd say to the government about property tax is to be very, very wary of wonks bearing gifts
August 19, 2025 at 12:26 PM
I’d bet decent money that there is less political risk in putting 2 percentage points on VAT (despite the manifesto pledge) than in a large reform of property tax.
Reposted by Kieran Lucia
The most viewed source of news in Britain, btw.
August 6, 2025 at 7:34 PM
The most viewed source of news in Britain, btw.