Now, if we see BA.3.2 saltn take off quickly in the spring, that will adjust the timing a bit for the South and Southwest's waves. Because yes, escape evolution, when strong enough, can manipulate the timing of the currently set in place seasonal trends for this virus. Those jumps are rare though.

BA.2.86 came out of the gate with ~45% advantage, and the addition of L455S within 6 weeks brought it to nearly 100%/wk.

BA.3.2 has been at ~10%/wk and has had a lot more time to find fitness advantages, but has yet to take off like BA.2.86 did.

BA.2.86* (nicknamed Pirola) has had the longest reign without a major evolutionary shift. We're now approaching 2 full years.

WT ~10 months
Alpha ~6 months
Delta ~5 months
BA.1/2 ~7 months
BA.5 ~6 months
XBB ~11 months
BA.2.86 ~23+ months

This is on top of two more expected to hit tonight. The first one was small, but the 2nd one expected later tonight looks bigger, so a late night chance tonight. But the main event looks like tomorrow.

We had another one overnight that is sure to impact earth! I think it's going to keep going too 🤞