John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
Research Professor at PME institution, Senior Nonresident Fellow at Atlantic Council, Associate Nonresident Fellow at NATO Defense College. Author of Coalition of the unWilling and unAble. Views are my own.
Pinned
John R. Deni
@johnrdeni.bsky.social
· Nov 22
The Role of America’s European Allies in the Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24
©2024 John R. Deni
What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Ru...
press.armywarcollege.edu
If US stops supporting UKR's effort to defend itself, can Europe fill the gap? Which countries can do more? What are the hurdles? What can all allies do to promote Europe's ability to carry more of the load? Lisa Aronsson & I address all in latest monograph.
press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/9...
press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/9...
That's really the only silver lining here -- that this may spur the Belgians to *finally* give in on seizing (or otherwise using) frozen RU assets.
It looks like Ukraine will reach the moment it has been fearing but also probably preparing for: the end of US support.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
Ukraine simply cannot agree to this surrender document. It is not losing the war (it is not winning either). It can and will fight on. Time for Europe to step up.... sigh.
This is not a peace deal and it’s not asking anything of the Russians. It’s just the US on behalf of the Russians pressuring Ukraine to surrender www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
November 21, 2025 at 6:00 PM
That's really the only silver lining here -- that this may spur the Belgians to *finally* give in on seizing (or otherwise using) frozen RU assets.
"Exclusive: US threatens to cut intel, weapons to press Ukraine into peace deal, sources say" www.reuters.com/world/europe...
www.reuters.com
November 21, 2025 at 5:51 PM
"Exclusive: US threatens to cut intel, weapons to press Ukraine into peace deal, sources say" www.reuters.com/world/europe...
As if it wasn't already obvious, latest peace effort indicates US and European interests on RU's war in UKR diverging. "Europe to Trump: Your Ukraine peace plan is no plan at all" www.politico.eu/article/euro...
Europe to Trump: Your Ukraine peace plan is no plan at all
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff’s ceasefire blueprint is a blow to dismayed Europeans who thought Trump finally understood that you can’t trust Putin.
www.politico.eu
November 21, 2025 at 1:48 PM
As if it wasn't already obvious, latest peace effort indicates US and European interests on RU's war in UKR diverging. "Europe to Trump: Your Ukraine peace plan is no plan at all" www.politico.eu/article/euro...
USAREUR-AF exercises its role as NATO Multi-Corps Land Component Command (MCLCC), and helps NATO LANDCOM train for same, commanding 7(!) Allied corps. www.army.mil/article/2890...
www.army.mil
November 18, 2025 at 6:22 PM
USAREUR-AF exercises its role as NATO Multi-Corps Land Component Command (MCLCC), and helps NATO LANDCOM train for same, commanding 7(!) Allied corps. www.army.mil/article/2890...
Russia's flagship oil price drops as buyers retreat ahead of US sanctions kyivindependent.com/russias-flag...
Russia's flagship oil price drops as buyers retreat ahead of US sanctions
Discounts on Urals relative to Brent reached $23.5 per barrel, the widest gap since June 2023.
kyivindependent.com
November 18, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Russia's flagship oil price drops as buyers retreat ahead of US sanctions kyivindependent.com/russias-flag...
China’s EV Market Is Imploding: "China’s state-led EV program, by design, has been predatory. ... Bloated by excessive investment, distorted by government intervention, and plagued by heavy losses, China’s EV industry appears destined for a crash." www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
China’s EV Market Is Imploding
Beijing’s grand ambitions threaten to take down the global car industry.
www.theatlantic.com
November 12, 2025 at 4:50 PM
China’s EV Market Is Imploding: "China’s state-led EV program, by design, has been predatory. ... Bloated by excessive investment, distorted by government intervention, and plagued by heavy losses, China’s EV industry appears destined for a crash." www.theatlantic.com/internationa...
"The IMF said that Europe’s debt levels risk becoming 'explosive' if business & labour reforms are not implemented & deficits are not slashed by boosting tax revenue, curbing social spending, & improving government efficiency.” www.euractiv.com/news/europes...
www.euractiv.com
November 5, 2025 at 1:20 PM
"The IMF said that Europe’s debt levels risk becoming 'explosive' if business & labour reforms are not implemented & deficits are not slashed by boosting tax revenue, curbing social spending, & improving government efficiency.” www.euractiv.com/news/europes...
Reposted by John R. Deni
Because I didn't have to teach on election day, I was able to read some recently published articles.
The highlight was @johnrdeni.bsky.social's recent analysis of NATO's response to the "shock" of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I highly recommend it.
The highlight was @johnrdeni.bsky.social's recent analysis of NATO's response to the "shock" of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I highly recommend it.
November 4, 2025 at 10:24 PM
Because I didn't have to teach on election day, I was able to read some recently published articles.
The highlight was @johnrdeni.bsky.social's recent analysis of NATO's response to the "shock" of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I highly recommend it.
The highlight was @johnrdeni.bsky.social's recent analysis of NATO's response to the "shock" of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. I highly recommend it.
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026 kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-...
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026
While Russian conscripts are officially barred from being deployed abroad, reports indicate that many are pressured into signing contracts with Russia's Defense Ministry and sent to fight in Ukraine.
kyivindependent.com
November 5, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Russia ends seasonal draft model, moves to year-round conscription from 2026 kyivindependent.com/putin-signs-...
NATO member Romania signs agreement with Germany’s Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder plant apnews.com/article/roma...
NATO member Romania signs agreement with Germany’s Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder plant
NATO member Romania has signed an agreement with Germany’s defense company Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder factory in central Romania, as Europe races to rearm itself in the face of an increasingly p...
apnews.com
November 4, 2025 at 7:30 PM
NATO member Romania signs agreement with Germany’s Rheinmetall to build a gunpowder plant apnews.com/article/roma...
Reposted by John R. Deni
As Romania says US will cut some troops in Europe, here is my debate with @johnrdeni.bsky.social - #TheGlobalAgora #podcast:
▶️ Is a drawdown of US forces from #Europe all but certain and what would it mean?
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Trump #NATO #security #defense
▶️ Is a drawdown of US forces from #Europe all but certain and what would it mean?
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Trump #NATO #security #defense
Is a drawdown of US forces from Europe all but certain and what would it mean? by The Global Agora
John Deni is a Research Professor of Joint, Interagency, Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) Security Studies at the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute. He just wrote an artic...
podcasters.spotify.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:52 PM
As Romania says US will cut some troops in Europe, here is my debate with @johnrdeni.bsky.social - #TheGlobalAgora #podcast:
▶️ Is a drawdown of US forces from #Europe all but certain and what would it mean?
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Trump #NATO #security #defense
▶️ Is a drawdown of US forces from #Europe all but certain and what would it mean?
podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/and... #Trump #NATO #security #defense
And note the rationale -- essentially, Europe's increasing capability makes this move possible.
There appears to be a disconnect between the reporting on this and what the US Army is actually doing. This USAREUR-AF press release makes it clear the entire IBCT(-) is redeploying without replacement: www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewP...
October 29, 2025 at 8:54 PM
And note the rationale -- essentially, Europe's increasing capability makes this move possible.
There appears to be a disconnect between the reporting on this and what the US Army is actually doing. This USAREUR-AF press release makes it clear the entire IBCT(-) is redeploying without replacement: www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewP...
October 29, 2025 at 8:52 PM
There appears to be a disconnect between the reporting on this and what the US Army is actually doing. This USAREUR-AF press release makes it clear the entire IBCT(-) is redeploying without replacement: www.europeafrica.army.mil/ArticleViewP...
US will reduce its troops on Nato's eastern flank, Romania says bbc.com/news/article...
US troops on Nato's eastern flank to be reduced, Romania says
Bucharest said between 900 and 1,000 American troops would remain stationed in Romania - down from 1,700.
bbc.com
October 29, 2025 at 8:44 PM
US will reduce its troops on Nato's eastern flank, Romania says bbc.com/news/article...
Lithuania shuts Vilnius airport, Belarus border in fourth airspace incident this week www.reuters.com/world/europe...
Lithuania shuts Vilnius airport, Belarus border in fourth airspace incident this week
NATO member Lithuania closed Vilnius Airport and Belarus border crossings on Sunday after several objects, identified as likely helium balloons, entered its airspace, the National Crisis Management Centre said, the fourth such incident this week.
www.reuters.com
October 27, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Lithuania shuts Vilnius airport, Belarus border in fourth airspace incident this week www.reuters.com/world/europe...
SBU reveals next-gen Sea Baby naval drones, confirms use in June Crimea Bridge attack kyivindependent.com/sbu-releases...
SBU reveals next-gen Sea Baby naval drones, confirms use in June Crimea Bridge attack
In a video, the SBU revealed two versions of the new drones.
kyivindependent.com
October 23, 2025 at 11:24 AM
SBU reveals next-gen Sea Baby naval drones, confirms use in June Crimea Bridge attack kyivindependent.com/sbu-releases...
Ukraine strikes Russian chemical plant with Storm Shadow missiles, military says kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
October 22, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Ukraine strikes Russian chemical plant with Storm Shadow missiles, military says kyivindependent.com/breaking-ukr...
After Trump’s turn toward Putin, NATO leader rushes to Washington politi.co/4o2MY3L via @politico.com
After Trump’s turn toward Putin, NATO leader rushes to Washington
Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with the president at the White House this week.
politi.co
October 22, 2025 at 10:56 AM
After Trump’s turn toward Putin, NATO leader rushes to Washington politi.co/4o2MY3L via @politico.com
Ukraine preparing long-term contract for 25 Patriot systems after meetings in US, Zelensky says kyivindependent.com/ukraine-prep...
Ukraine preparing long-term contract for 25 Patriot systems after meetings in US, Zelensky says
According to Zelensky, the proposed contract for 25 Patriot systems would be carried out over several years, "with different quantities each year."
kyivindependent.com
October 21, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Ukraine preparing long-term contract for 25 Patriot systems after meetings in US, Zelensky says kyivindependent.com/ukraine-prep...
The Army's new tank will roll out a decade early. Here’s how they did it www.defenseone.com/defense-syst... via @defenseone.bsky.social
The Army's new tank will roll out a decade early. Here’s how they did it
Soldiers are expected to be riding in the M1E3 next year, well ahead of the tank's planned 2030s arrival.
www.defenseone.com
October 16, 2025 at 6:10 PM
The Army's new tank will roll out a decade early. Here’s how they did it www.defenseone.com/defense-syst... via @defenseone.bsky.social
Pressure mounts on NATO allies to go all-in on Trump arms scheme for Ukraine www.politico.eu/article/pres...
Pressure mounts on NATO allies to go all-in on Trump arms scheme for Ukraine
A majority of NATO countries have joined the PURL scheme, and the rest are under pressure “to put your money where your mouth is.”
www.politico.eu
October 16, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Pressure mounts on NATO allies to go all-in on Trump arms scheme for Ukraine www.politico.eu/article/pres...
Germany pledges big military aid package to Ukraine as Kyiv puts 2026 defense needs at $120 billion apnews.com/article/nato...
Germany pledges big military aid package to Ukraine as Kyiv puts 2026 defense needs at $120 billion
Germany plans to send more than $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine amid concerns about dwindling Western support.
apnews.com
October 15, 2025 at 6:25 PM
Germany pledges big military aid package to Ukraine as Kyiv puts 2026 defense needs at $120 billion apnews.com/article/nato...
NATO agonizes over leaky air defenses while Russian threat grows www.politico.eu/article/nato...
NATO agonizes over leaky air defenses while Russian threat grows
Mounting drone incursions are sparking a debate on national rules that some see as limiting NATO’s top military officer.
www.politico.eu
October 15, 2025 at 12:28 PM
NATO agonizes over leaky air defenses while Russian threat grows www.politico.eu/article/nato...
Fresh fractures in German coalition over 'lottery' military service feud www.euractiv.com/news/fresh-f...
Fresh fractures in German coalition over 'lottery' military service feud | Euractiv
According to media reports, the Social Democrats were unimpressed with the compromise struck with their coalition partners
www.euractiv.com
October 15, 2025 at 12:24 PM
Fresh fractures in German coalition over 'lottery' military service feud www.euractiv.com/news/fresh-f...